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Mean Absolute Percent Error

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Published: 04 December 2012
Fig. 3 Percentage distributions of the mean absolute percent errors (APE) of comparisons between the ProFamy projections from 1990 to 2000 (using the data before 1991) and the census observations in 2000, six main indices of households (Fig. 3a) and six main indices of population (Fig. 3b More
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (4): 649–661.
Published: 01 November 1987
... is calculated as the estimated value minus the census value, expressed as a percentage of the census value. Specifically, the following criteria are used: 1. Mean absolute percent error: the weighted mean of the percent errors, disregarding sign. 2. Extreme relative errors: the percentage of relative errors...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
... Time Series Model American Statistical Association Mean Absolute Percent Error Mortality Probability References Ascher , W. ( 1978 ). Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers . Baltimore, Md. : Johns Hopkins University Press . Bohara , A. K. , Bradley , M...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 135–146.
Published: 01 February 1982
... rigorous com- parison of competing techniques under different "circumstances." It can also help point to sensitivities in population estimation models.? COMPARISON OF RATIO-CORRELATION AND DIFFERENCE-CORRELATION ACCURACY The mean absolute percent errors of the estimate (MAE) and the adjusted R 2s...
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (4): 499–510.
Published: 01 November 2000
... 3,507 1.36 G11 2,618 2,991 2,828 5.45 G12 1,849 2,239 2,053 8.31 Total 51,984 57,857 55,346 4.34 MAPE 4.89 MALPE 3.87 Note: MAPE denotes mean absolute percent error across the 13 grades levels; MALPE denotes mean algebraic percent error across those levels. 508 DEMOGRAPHY, VOLUME 37-NUMBER 4...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (4): 537–549.
Published: 01 November 2001
.... Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2001 2001 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percent Error Forecast Horizon...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
... 2010 © Population Association of America 1988 1988 Forecast Error American Statistical Association Mean Absolute Percentage Error Forecast Accuracy Base Period References Ascher , W. ( 1978 ). Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners . Baltimore, Md...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 383–404.
Published: 01 August 1984
... and average absolute errors for counties of 5 percent or less, they also note mean absolute percentage errors of over 23 percent for places under 500 population and errors of over 26 percent for places that had grown or declined by more than 10 percent in the past four to six years. Isserman (1977...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 407–413.
Published: 01 August 1983
... technique Standard deviations are given in parentheses. size-of-place categories. Looking at the total sample, the mean absolute errors are 7.2 percent for FLA-REC and 10.4 percent for SZ-REC, with standard devi- ations of 5.3 and 8.7 respectively. The mean algebraic errors are 2.9 percent for FLA-REC...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (3): 369–379.
Published: 01 August 1976
... regression approach described in this pa- method, with a mean absolute error of 4.5 per. One factor is the amount of variance percent, to have the smallest mean error in the dependent variable which is "ex- of any method used here. The second plained" by the independent variables. most accurate method...
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (1): 310–330.
Published: 01 March 1967
... migration estimates is the paucity of empirical information concern- ing errors in the relevant population sta- tistics. This lack of information means that methods which are adequate vehicles for the exact assessment of errors in net migration estimates must be applied in- exactly in practice. In addition...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (2): 223–233.
Published: 01 May 1978
..., using averaging of simple regression estimates. This tech- nique yields a mean absolute error of only 4.1 percent, with about three-fourths of all estimates being within 5 percent of the census enumeration. The use of the NSMR and stratification by share of the population which is nonwhite yields aver...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (4): 549–557.
Published: 01 November 1978
... years. Under the same rate of mortality decline, the estimate of q(2) is in error by only 5 percent if the mean age of child- bearing is 31.7 years. The increased accu- racy of the Brass estimate as childbearing begins at later ages derives from the fact that, for mothers in a given age group...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
... of absolute forecast errors. (This means, e.g., that the computed 80 percent confidence interval covered only about 70 percent of the forecast errors.) Williams and Goodman (1971) then estimated empirical confidence intervals by fitting a parametric error model (a gamma distribution) to the distribution...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 323–339.
Published: 01 August 1980
... absolute errors between 10 and 12 percent, which is much lower than 'the 22 percent error produced by the SZ-REC technique. For places with greater than 1,000 population in 1970, however, the FLA-REC technique has greater preci- sion than the others. For these places FLA-REC has an average absolute error...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (3): 443–453.
Published: 01 August 1972
... equations were constructed from the first sample, and then they were used for esti- mating the (y' - iii) values in the sec- ond. The mean square error and aver- age percent absolute error were both calculated for each estimation proced- ure. All these steps were repeated inde- pendently six times. Table 2...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (2): 259–272.
Published: 01 May 1976
...-percent error in the birth rate trans- lates to a value of - 3.7 per 1,000 for ~b and a IO-percent error in the death rate implies a value of -1.8 per 1,000 for ~d. The overall error is estimated to be, -3.7134) -1.8(-1.435) = 3.079, which means that the value of life expec- tancy based on the measured...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (1): 161–170.
Published: 01 February 1989
... are important: (I) The mean generated 16 (out of 30) extreme errors, whereas the regression model generates only 3 (out of 30) extreme errors; and (2) the mean absolute error of the regression estimates is only 60 percent of the mean absolute error found by using the mean estimator. Since the amount...
Journal Article
Demography (1970) 7 (1): 87–91.
Published: 01 February 1970
... of errors greater than five percent when the dif- ferent means of applying the ratio cor- relation method were used to estimate 1960 county population. Without strati- fication or the use of dummy variables, errors of five percent or more were made in sixteen counties. This drops to twelve when dummy...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 341–343.
Published: 01 August 1980
... derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes. 8 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1980 1980 Population Estimate Temporal Instability Regression Coeffi High Intercorrelation Average Absolute Percent References Bousfield M. V. ( 1977...