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Marriage Probability
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in Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010
> Demography
Published: 21 March 2019
Fig. 3 Probability of ever marrying by education for females, 1960–2012. Marriage probabilities are based on multiple-decrement period measures. Estimates for 2011–2012 use 2010 mortality rates. Estimates by education are interpolated from 1988 through 2007 (indicated by dashed vertical lines
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in Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility
> Demography
Published: 12 November 2020
Fig. 3 Predicted probability of fatherhood and motherhood by age at first marriage. Models control for race, Hispanic ethnicity, religiosity in 1979, family structure at age 14, number of siblings, mother’s education, completed education, and number of desired children.
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in Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States: Evidence From the Great Recession
> Demography
Published: 08 October 2015
Fig. 2 Predicted probability of marriage and nonmarital fertility for low-SES women by state-level unemployment rate (shading shows the 95 % confidence intervals)
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in Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States: Evidence From the Great Recession
> Demography
Published: 08 October 2015
Fig. 3 Differences in the predicted probability of marriage and nonmarital fertility for low-SES women by state-level unemployment rate
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Published: 30 July 2015
Fig. 2 Predicted probability of transitioning to marriage, 1870–1880, among those at risk for marriage (single in 1870, age 18+ in 1880). Predictions for white and African American men are shown separately. Predicted probabilities from Table 4 , Model 3, with all covariates set to their means
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Published: 07 January 2019
Fig. 1 Predicted probability of marriage by fringe benefits scale for men and women. Estimates are from the model with cohabitation as competing risk.
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in Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010
> Demography
Published: 21 March 2019
Fig. 4 Probability that a first marriage will end in divorce, by wife’s education, 1960–2012. Divorce probabilities are based on multiple-decrement period measures. Estimates for 2011–2012 use 2010 mortality rates. Estimates by education are interpolated from 1988 through 2007 (indicated
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Published: 02 December 2019
Fig. 1 Probability distributions of marriage for subpopulations divided on the basis of menarche age
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Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (3): 345–359.
Published: 01 August 1978
.../2093585 Glick , P. C. , & Norton , A. J. ( 1971 ). Frequency, Duration, and Probability of Marriage and Divorce . Journal of Marriage and the Family , 33 , 307 – 317 . 10.2307/349416 Glick , P. C. , & Norton , A. J. ( 1973 ). Perspectives on the Recent Upturn...
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (3): 243–260.
Published: 01 August 1969
...Walt Saveland; Paul C. Glick Abstract A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons...
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in Diverging Patterns of Union Transition Among Cohabitors by Race/Ethnicity and Education: Trends and Marital Intentions in the United States
> Demography
Published: 15 June 2016
Fig. 1 Predicted annual probabilities of transitioning into marriage by education for 1990–1995 and 2005–2010 cohabiting cohorts with 95 % confidence intervals (weighted results)
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Published: 10 June 2020
Fig. 4 Predicted probabilities of educational hypogamy (H < W) by marriage cohort and educational category (with 95% confidence intervals). Results are based on Model 5 of Table 5 . The model also includes a variety of marriage-related characteristics, caste, religion, and state-level
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in College as a Great Equalizer? Marriage and Assortative Mating Among First- and Continuing-Generation College Students
> Demography
Published: 01 December 2021
Fig. 2 Predicted probabilities of marriage by years since high school graduation, respondent education, parental education, and gender, NLSY97. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals (bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations). Predictions are based on an individual with the following
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in College as a Great Equalizer? Marriage and Assortative Mating Among First- and Continuing-Generation College Students
> Demography
Published: 01 December 2021
Fig. 3 Predicted probabilities of first marriage type by age 32, by generation status and gender, NLSY97. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals (bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations). Predictions are based on an individual with the following characteristics: White, Protestant, grew up
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Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (4): 511–521.
Published: 01 November 2000
... around age 20. The probability of ever marrying and the conditional probability of marriage in a given time period were lower for smaller men and greater for larger men. Marriage significantly lowered mortality risk even after controlling for health in early adulthood. Thus I found support both...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (5): 1753–1786.
Published: 10 September 2020
... this discrete-time event-history model to describe cohort trends in marriage and union formation across demographic groups. We focus on the cumulative probability of ever marrying/forming a union by age 40, but we also calculate cumulative probabilities across all ages to find the ages by which one-quarter...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (4): 549–569.
Published: 01 November 1971
...Charles Hirschman; Judah Matras Abstract The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (2): 333–349.
Published: 01 May 2003
...Shelly Lundberg; Elaina Rose Abstract We estimate the effect of a child’s gender on the mother’s probability of marriage or remarriage using data from the PSID Marital History and Childbirth and Adoption History Files. We find that the birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when...
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (2): 185–221.
Published: 01 May 1969
..., single females, or couplcs) are grouped accord- ing to their agcs, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model as- sumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number...
Journal Article
Demography (1974) 11 (2): 291–299.
Published: 01 May 1974
...H. V. Muhsam Abstract If the sex-age structure of the population is equilibrated, observed marriage patterns are assumed to reflect preferred mate selections. With regard to age, these preferences can be expressed in terms of the probabilities of unmarried persons of given ages marrying persons...
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