Search Results for Markov Chain Model

... thus be regarded as averages. Furthermore, we have disregarded the possibility of multiple births. For a more extensive study of Markov chain models of fertility, see Jan Hoem (1969). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am grateful to my colleagues in the Socio-Demographic Research Unit in the Central Bureau...

... of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1979 1979 Birth Interval Fetal Loss Markov Chain Model Seasonal Migration Conception Rate References Bongaarts, John, and Robert J. Potter...

... based on embedded Markov chains has received growing use. We assessed the performance of both approaches, using as a criterion their ability to reproduce the parameters of a “true” model based on panel data collected at one-month intervals. Neither of the widely used approaches performs particularly...

... between intervals. While this assumption may introduce potential bias in the results, Wolf and Gill (2009) demonstrated that existing models, such as the event-history model and embedded Markov chain model, perform comparably under this condition. Moreover, they noted that no model could perfectly...

.... 39 – 88 ). New York : Academic Press . Hayward M.D. , & Grady W.R. ( 1990 ). “Work and Retirement among a Cohort of Older Men in the United States, 1966–1983.” . Demography , 27 , 337 – 56 . 10.2307/2061372 Hoem J.M. ( 1977 ). “A Markov Chain Model of Working...

... from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated...

.... , & Fong , M. ( 1976 ). A Markov chain model of working life tables . Denmark : University of Copenhagen, Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics . Janowitz , M. ( 1978 ). The Last Half-Century: Societal Change and Politics in America . Chicago : The University of Chicago Press . Land...

... on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate...

... J. J. ( 1976 ). Length of Working Life for Men and Women, 1970 . Monthly Labor Review , 99 , 31 – 35 . Garfinkle S. ( 1963 ). Table of Working Life for Men, 1960 . Monthly Labor Review , 86 , 820 – 823 . Hoem, Jan M. 1977. A Markov Chain Model of Working Life Tables...

... . Demography , 36 , 77 – 91 . 10.2307/2648135 Hendi A. S. ( 2015 ). Trends in U.S. life expectancy gradients: The role of changing educational composition . International Journal of Epidemiology , 44 , 946 – 955 . 10.1093/ije/dyv062 Hoem J. M. ( 1977 ). A Markov chain model...

... obey the rules of stochastic processes, especially the very special kind of stochastic process known as a first-order Markov chain. In a well- balanced statement, informed by the knowledge that most workers do not ex- perience a lifetime career "because most work situations do not afford the neces...

...- men, Kogan, and McCarthy2 to examine the movement of workers between indus- tries; and by Berger and Snell" in both illustrative intercity population move- ments and intergenerational social mobil- ity. This paper employs the theory of Markov chains in constructing a proba- bilistic migration model...

...Jan M. Hoem 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1975 1975 Markov Chain Life Table Fertility Model Probabilistic Fertility Finite State Space References Du Pasquier L. Gustav ( 1912 ). Mathematische Theorie der Invaliditatsversicherung . Mitteil...

.../DemRes.2010.22.6 Cole , B. F. , Bonetti , M. , Zaslavsky , A. M. , & Gelber , R. D. ( 2005 ). A multistate Markov chain model for longitudinal quality-of-life data subject to non-ignorable missingness . Statistics in Medicine , 24 , 2317 – 2334 . 10.1002/sim.2122...

... Unmarried Women sensual union or not. A member of either group can marry or move to the other group at any time, and for the moment we do not recognise other transitions, as indicated in Figure 1. We describe these statuses (states) and the transitions be- tween them by means of a Markov chain model...

... , 644 – 666 . 10.2307/2578817 Hoem , J. ( 1977 ). A Markov chain model of working life tables . Scandinavian Actuarial Journal , 1 , 1 – 20 . Kaufman , R. L. , & Spilerrnan , S. ( 1982 ). The age structures of occupations and jobs . American Journal of Sociology...

... models: Construction, analysis, and interpretation . 2 Sinauer : Sunderland . Caswell H. ( 2006 ). MAM2006: Markov anniversary meeting, chap. Applications of Markov chains in demography (pp. 319 – 334 ). Raleigh : Boson Books . Caswell H. ( 2007 ). Sensitivity analysis...

... . 10.1093/geronj/43.6.S194 Hayward M. D. , Hardy M. A. , & Grady W. R. ( 1989 ). Labor Force Withdrawal Patterns Among Older Men in the United States . Social Science Quarterly , 70 , 425 – 448 Hoem J. ( 1977 ). A Markov Chain Model of Working Life Tables...

..., and that these trends vary substantially across genders, although male and female mortality patterns appear to be converging to some extent. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2001 2001 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inflection Point Mortality Pattern Development Review Mortality Curve...

...-based, discrete-time Markov chain multistate models and data from the Health and Retirement Study, a high-quality panel survey representative of U.S. residents older than 50, we estimate three key indicators: (1) mean age at onset, (2) lifetime risk, and (3) life expectancy in co-impairment...