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Markov Chain
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Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 249–267.
Published: 01 March 1968
... that future studies of residential mobility need to incorporate social psychological concepts with the current focus on migration histories, Markov chains, cohort analyses, migration expectancy tables, and techniques of linking populations over time. Demographers must extend both their theoretical...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (2): 371–386.
Published: 01 May 2009
... based on embedded Markov chains has received growing use. We assessed the performance of both approaches, using as a criterion their ability to reproduce the parameters of a “true” model based on panel data collected at one-month intervals. Neither of the widely used approaches performs particularly...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1933–1954.
Published: 15 August 2014
... on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (5): 1615–1640.
Published: 17 September 2013
..., standard deviation, variance, Theil’s index, mean logarithmic deviation, and interquartile range). We derive each of these indices from an absorbing Markov chain formulation of the life table, and use matrix calculus to obtain the sensitivity and the elasticity (i.e., the proportional sensitivity...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1975) 12 (4): 661.
Published: 01 November 1975
...Jan M. Hoem 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1975 1975 Markov Chain Life Table Fertility Model Probabilistic Fertility Finite State Space References Du Pasquier L. Gustav ( 1912 ). Mathematische Theorie der Invaliditatsversicherung . Mitteil...
Journal Article
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 134–139.
Published: 01 March 1965
... manierulrti sin cambios . La teoria de las cadenas de Markov es util en el estudio de la movilidad geograjica a largo plazo; sin embargo, se hacen necesarias algunas modijicaciones especificae. Markov chains have been employed by Prais and by Kemeny and Snell! to meas- ure intergenerational mobility; by Blu...
Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (1): 19–34.
Published: 01 March 1966
... obey the rules of stochastic processes, especially the very special kind of stochastic process known as a first-order Markov chain. In a well- balanced statement, informed by the knowledge that most workers do not ex- perience a lifetime career "because most work situations do not afford the neces...
Journal Article
Demography (1979) 16 (1): 103–119.
Published: 01 February 1979
... of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1979 1979 Birth Interval Fetal Loss Markov Chain Model Seasonal Migration Conception Rate References Bongaarts, John, and Robert J. Potter...
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (4): 441–450.
Published: 01 November 1971
... in a later paper. ApPENDIX The covariance 'Yj defined above is there asserted to be approximately equal to !Fj(1 - Pj). To show this, we shall make use of a simple continuous time Markov chain, which is intended to give a simplified picture of the actual phenomenon. Let us here for simplicity assume...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 79–95.
Published: 01 February 2001
..., and that these trends vary substantially across genders, although male and female mortality patterns appear to be converging to some extent. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2001 2001 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inflection Point Mortality Pattern Development Review Mortality Curve...
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (5): 1441–1468.
Published: 01 October 2023
... the population burden of the co-occurrence of cognitive impairment and ADL limitations (henceforth, co-impairment ), and it contributes to population health research in three key ways. First, using incidence-based, discrete-time Markov chain multistate models and data from the Health and Retirement Study...
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Journal Article
Demography (1985) 22 (3): 455–468.
Published: 01 August 1985
... ). Non-negative Matrices and Markov Chains . 2nd Edition New York : John Wiley . DEMOGRAPHY© Volume 22, Number 3, August 1985 ON THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATIONS WITH TWO AGE GROUPS Young J. Kim Department of Population Dynamics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, The Johns Hopkins University...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 91–104.
Published: 01 February 1986
...-9787.1982.tb00769.x Plane D. A. ( 1984 ). A systemic demographic efficiency analysis of U.S. interstate population exchange, 1935–80 . Economic Geography , 60 , 294 – 312 . 10.2307/143435 Pullman N. , & Styan G. ( 1973 ). The convergence of Markov chains with non...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 455–466.
Published: 01 August 1991
... two probability distributions. Here we are concerned with the distance between an observed population and its stable equivalent. To be appropriate for measurement by the Kullback distance, however, the two distributions must form part of a Markov chain (Schlogl 1976). Tuljapurkar (1982) showed how...
Journal Article
Demography (1970) 7 (2): 175–183.
Published: 01 May 1970
... Markov Chains . New York : D. Van Nostrand . Lee , Douglas B. ( 1968 ). Models and Techniques for Urban Planning . Washington : Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information . Lowry , I. S. ( 1964 ). A Model for Metropolis . Santa Monica : The Rand Corporation...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (6): 1715–1730.
Published: 01 December 2024
... between intervals. While this assumption may introduce potential bias in the results, Wolf and Gill (2009) demonstrated that existing models, such as the event-history model and embedded Markov chain model, perform comparably under this condition. Moreover, they noted that no model could perfectly...
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Journal Article
Demography (1994) 31 (2): 297–319.
Published: 01 May 1994
...). 15 For all closed single-year age intervals, ages 65 through 94, all of the sample transition probability matrices that we analyzed satisfied the necessary and sufficient condition for embeddability in a continuous-time Markov chain (Singer and Spilerman 1976:10), namely that the sum of the diagonal...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (3): 381–402.
Published: 01 August 1986
.... : The MIT Press . Campbell , A. , Converse , P. E. , Miller , W. T. , & Stokes , D. E. ( 1960 ). The American Voter . New York : Wiley . Goodman , G. S. ( 1970 ). An intrinsic time for non-stationary finite Markov chains . Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitheorie und Verw...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (5): 1559–1584.
Published: 01 October 2024
... stocks is summarized in a Markov chain. Changes in the three principal labor market stocks of employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation are shaped by both labor market flows among the existing working-age population and by gross population flows into and out of each stock. We use this mapping...
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