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Published: 27 October 2012
Journal Article
Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections
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Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2037–2051.
Published: 01 August 2013
... . 10.1073/pnas.0710234105 Lee R. D. , & Carter L. R. ( 1992 ). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 87 , 659 – 671 . Lee R. , & Miller T. ( 2001 ). Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method...
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View articletitled, Extending the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Method to <span class="search-highlight">Model</span> the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections
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for article titled, Extending the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Method to <span class="search-highlight">Model</span> the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections
Journal Article
Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections
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Demography (2013) 50 (4): 1341–1362.
Published: 17 January 2013
... according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience...
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Journal Article
Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method
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Demography (2005) 42 (3): 575–594.
Published: 01 August 2005
... into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while...
View articletitled, Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the <span class="search-highlight">lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">carter</span> method
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for article titled, Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the <span class="search-highlight">lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">carter</span> method
Journal Article
Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth
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Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1755–1773.
Published: 03 October 2014
... life tables is more sensitive to the underlying model and estimation methods. 7 When used to better fit the in-sample mortality rates at different ages, the Lee-Carter is more volatile than the GDP series, possibly yielding better out-of-sample point forecasts but at the expense of a larger...
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View articletitled, Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth
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for article titled, Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
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Demography (2017) 54 (3): 1073–1095.
Published: 18 May 2017
.... The Lee-Carter model can be expressed as 1 log m x , t = a x + b x k t + ε x , t , where a x is a parameter measuring the average level of mortality at age x , k t is a time-varying index capturing the overall level of mortality in year t...
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View articletitled, Optimizing the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
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for article titled, Optimizing the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
...Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Peter W. F. Smith; Jakub Bijak; James Raymer; Jonathan J. Forster Abstract In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns...
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View articletitled, Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Method
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for article titled, Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the <span class="search-highlight">Lee</span>-<span class="search-highlight">Carter</span> Method
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application
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Demography (2013) 50 (2): 673–697.
Published: 27 October 2012
...Fig. 2 Parameter estimates of the Lee-Carter model ...
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View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Modeling</span> and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application
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for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Modeling</span> and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
The Missing Mortality Advantage for European Immigrants to the United States in the Early Twentieth Century
Open Access
Demography (2022) 59 (4): 1517–1539.
Published: 01 August 2022
... records and Lee–Carter mortality models to analyze mortality by nativity status for the U.S. White population from 1900 to 1960, examining variation by age, sex, time, and place. Contrary to contemporary expectations of a foreign-born mortality advantage, White immigrants had higher mortality rates...
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View articletitled, The Missing Mortality Advantage for European Immigrants to the United States in the Early Twentieth Century
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for article titled, The Missing Mortality Advantage for European Immigrants to the United States in the Early Twentieth Century
Includes: Supplementary data
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Published: 05 July 2017
Fig. 2 Life expectancy at birth (left panels) and life years lost at birth (right panels) for women in Italy, Japan, and Denmark: Observed data, forecasted data using the Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter rotating variant (proposed by Li et al. 2013 ), and the Bohk and Rau model. Forecast years
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Journal Article
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
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Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
... with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure. 15 2 2011 © Population Association of America 2005 2005 Logistic Model Slope Parameter Adult Mortality Background Component Swedish Woman References Beard , R.E. ( 1971 ). Some Aspects of Theories of Mortality, Cause of Death...
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Published: 03 October 2014
Fig. 2 Historical and forecasted life expectancy at birth ( e 0 ), with 95 % intervals included (females). Solid lines represent the results from the Lee-Carter Model (1) and dashed lines from Model (4)
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in Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
> Demography
Published: 18 May 2017
Fig. 3 The estimates of b for the U.S. and Japanese unisex populations, when the Lee-Carter model is fitted to the optimal calibration window, the longest possible calibration window, and the calibration window that is 15 years shorter than the optimal one
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in The Missing Mortality Advantage for European Immigrants to the United States in the Early Twentieth Century
> Demography
Published: 01 August 2022
Fig. 2 White male log age-specific mortality by nativity, 1900–1960. Lines represent log mortality rates fitted from Lee–Carter models for each nativity group. Points represent observed log mortality rates.
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in The Missing Mortality Advantage for European Immigrants to the United States in the Early Twentieth Century
> Demography
Published: 01 August 2022
Fig. 3 White female log age-specific mortality by nativity, 1900–1960. Lines represent log mortality rates fitted from Lee–Carter models for each nativity group. Points represent observed log mortality rates.
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1559–1577.
Published: 05 July 2017
...Fig. 2 Life expectancy at birth (left panels) and life years lost at birth (right panels) for women in Italy, Japan, and Denmark: Observed data, forecasted data using the Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter rotating variant (proposed by Li et al. 2013 ), and the Bohk and Rau model. Forecast years...
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View articletitled, Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts
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for article titled, Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts
Includes: Supplementary data
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in Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
> Demography
Published: 18 May 2017
Fig. 2 The estimates of k for the U.S. and Japanese unisex populations, when the Lee-Carter model is fitted to the optimal calibration window and longest possible calibration window. Although the estimates of k for different calibration periods are shown in the same panel, their absolute
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The central and interval forecasts of the log central death rates for the S...
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in Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements
> Demography
Published: 18 May 2017
Fig. 1 The central and interval forecasts of the log central death rates for the Spanish unisex population at age 85, based on the Lee-Carter models fitted to the age range of 0–89 and calibration windows beginning in 1950 (solid line), 1983 (dot-dashed line), and 1990 (dashed line). The circles
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Journal Article
Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach
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Demography (2017) 54 (5): 1921–1946.
Published: 25 September 2017
... the Lee-Carter model (Lee and Carter 1992 ) and the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for six OECD countries. Niu and Melenberg found a long-run relationship between these two trends and showed that they have comparable performance in terms of fitting historical mortality rates...
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View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Modeling</span> and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach
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for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Modeling</span> and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
... unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Bayesian hierarchical model Double logistic function Lee-Carter model Life expectancy at birth Markov chain Monte Carlo Every two years, the United Nations Population Division (UN...
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View articletitled, Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries
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for article titled, Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
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