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Hypothetical Cohort

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Journal Article
Demography (1981) 18 (1): 103–122.
Published: 01 February 1981
...Hania Zlotnik; Kenneth Hill Abstract The indirect methods of demographic estimation available to date are often inadequate to estimate levels in the presence of trends. The use of measures relative to hypothetical cohorts to minimize the effectsoftrends and estimate period levels is described...
Published: 19 September 2014
Fig. 1 A hypothetical fertility contour map with cohort shifts. Cohort fertility is unchanged during the shift, but synthetic cohort fertility is compressed during the shift years. a The trajectories of two cohorts. The first completes fertility before shifts begin. The second undergoes More
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (2): 269–285.
Published: 01 May 2002
... provides a set of formulas expressing relationships of quantum-tempo between cohorts and periods under specified assumptions. 12 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2002 2002 Annual Change Relative Bias Family Planning Program Hypothetical Cohort Invariant Shape...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 17–28.
Published: 01 February 2001
... Change Total Fertility Rate Hypothetical Cohort Invariant Shape References Bongaarts , J. ( 1999 ). The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing World . Population Studies , 53 , 277 – 89 . 10.1080/00324720308088 Bongaarts , J...
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (3): 243–260.
Published: 01 August 1969
... 1-4, derived from the 1958-60 probabili- ties, simulate the marriage experience of a hypothetical cohort whose members live out their entire lives under the conditions of the late 1950's. First-marriage tables based on cohort data could have been constructed from the census data described below...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (4): 617–624.
Published: 01 November 1972
... of students, as these will be used for projection purposes. Of course, period indices can be useful but they are quite crude to evaluate educa- tional attainments, unless we derive measures for hypothetical cohorts. One such crude index is the school en- rolment ratio, which is the number of pupils enrolled...
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 212–225.
Published: 01 March 1968
... OF A HYPOTHETICAL COHORT OF 1,000 WOMEN TO ONE-PARITY STATUS, FOR WHITE WOMEN IN THE CIVILIAN NON- INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES, CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY, JUNE, 1965 Cumulative progression Average First births of hypothetical annual during year zero-parfty coho(,0 ofInterval from first number...
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 907–924.
Published: 01 June 1967
.... We may choose the mean, or the median, based on one of the following three meas- ures. 1. The estimated number of marriages by age. 2. The distribution of marriages in a hypothet- ical cohort subjected to the first marriage rates for the year. A stationary population not subjected to mortality...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 267–281.
Published: 01 April 2024
... of grandparenthood ( Margolis 2016 ). The Sullivan method subjects a hypothetical cohort to a period's age-specific mortality and condition prevalence rates, where the condition in question can vary but is most often some measure of morbidity or social arrangement. In calculating how such a hypothetical cohort...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 841–861.
Published: 04 June 2011
... more than this. It is defined classically as the mean family size of a hypothetical cohort experiencing throughout its lifetime the age-specific rates of a period (see, e.g., Pressat and Wilson 1988 ). Hence, the TFR and indices constructed along similar lines, such as period parity progression ratios...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (3): 435–450.
Published: 01 August 1986
... Nations . Zlotnik , H. , & Hill , K. ( 1981 ). The use of hypothetical cohorts in estimating demographic parameters under conditions of changing fertility and mortality . Demography , 18 , 103 – 122 . 10.2307/2061052 DEMOGRAPHY© Volume 23, Number 3 August 1986 AN ASSESSMENT...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 213–227.
Published: 01 May 1991
... . Timaeus , I.M. , & Graham , W.J. ( 1989 ). Measuring Adult Mortality in Developing Countries: A Review and Assessment of Methods . Washington, DC : The World Bank . Zlotnik , H. , & Hill , K. ( 1981 ). The Use of Hypothetical Cohorts in Estimating Demographic Parameters...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (1): 175–177.
Published: 01 February 1990
.... Before a hypothetical cohort begins its childbearing, the women are sorted according to two numbers. First, p(0 is the proportion of the cohort for whom j is the maximum acceptable parity. Second, the women can be sorted by m, the natural parity. Assume that m is known, but not to the woman. By reference...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (6): 2063–2082.
Published: 11 November 2019
... and higher-order birth and union events by woman’s birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2073–2099.
Published: 10 October 2017
... a straightforward demographic interpretation: it is the number of years that a hypothetical cohort of individuals could expect to live if they experienced each of the different states of health and grandparenthood across all ages observed in the period data. It makes the same assumption of stationarity as period...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (3): 395–406.
Published: 01 August 1987
... show that as many as 48 percent of those married in 1970will eventually divorce if the annual rates of divorce in the 1980s and 1990s stay the same as they were in 1977 (cited in Cherlin, 1981). Others have pointed out that such high levels based on hypothetical cohorts may actually never be achieved...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 203–208.
Published: 01 February 2009
... rose rapidly for There May Be Compositional Effects, But They Do Not Work That Way 205 Table 2. Cohort Trends in the Percentage Unmarried (Su) Assumed by the GSS Model Predicted % Unmarried, by Fertility Probability Lowest Next Middle Next Highest Hypothetical Cohort Fertility Lowest Fertility Highest...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (6): 2013–2024.
Published: 01 December 2022
... history of cohorts . Population Studies , 69 , 147 – 159 . Case A. , & Paxson C. ( 2005 ). Sex differences in morbidity and mortality . Demography , 42 , 189 – 214 . Caselli G. , & Vallin J. ( 2006 ). The hypothetical cohort as a tool for demographic...
FIGURES | View All (4)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (1): 183–208.
Published: 21 January 2015
... birth cohort size; (3) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRBs) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female...
FIGURES | View All (5)
Journal Article
Demography (2004) 41 (4): 801–819.
Published: 01 November 2004
... is actually the average total number of births per woman of a hypothetical cohort that has gone through the imagined extended period with changing tempo but constant quantum and invariant shape of the [fertility] schedule. Does such a measure provide an appropriate adjustment for tempo effects? The Bongaarts...