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Gompertz Model
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in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
> Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating
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in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
> Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
...Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating...
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Journal Article
Demography (1981) 18 (3): 389–410.
Published: 01 August 1981
... a considerable degree of heterogeneity in mortality risks. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1981 1981 Gompertz Model Mortality Experience Gompertz Function Standard Force Mortality Selection References Coale A. J. , & Zelnik M. ( 1963 ). New Estimates...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (6): 2025–2044.
Published: 02 November 2018
... the course of middle and early-old ages, they have reached less agreement about what happens to mortality at advanced ages: whereas some models of old-age mortality imply that death rates will continue to increase at oldest ages (Dong et al. 2016 ; Gompertz 1825 ; Makeham 1860 ), other models predict...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (1): 51–71.
Published: 03 January 2014
... argue that deceleration patterns may reveal surprisingly little about the heterogeneity that putatively produces them. I show that even in a very simple model—one that is composed of just two subpopulations with Gompertz mortality—(1) aggregate mortality can decelerate even while a majority...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (5): 1563–1591.
Published: 07 June 2013
... x dμ x dx = d log μ x dx , where μ( x ) is the force of mortality at age x . When mortality curves are fit to the Gompertz model, μ( x ) = a exp( bx ), the LAR corresponds to the slope parameter b , which is constant over age. Empirically, the LARs vary across ages...
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Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 17–30.
Published: 01 February 1997
... of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine. 9 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1997 1997 Gompertz Model Female Mortality...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 17–28.
Published: 01 February 2001
... of Estimating Fertility and Mortality From Limited and Defective Data . Chapel Hill : International Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina . Brass, W. 1978. “The Relational Gompertz Model of Fertility by Age of Women.” London School...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 361–374.
Published: 01 August 1991
... on the remarriage rates. Overall, age and time since widowhood have the strongest and most consistent effects on remarriage rates for different widowed groups. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1991 1991 Hazard Rate Unobserved Heterogeneity Gompertz Model Duration Dependence...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (1): 39–60.
Published: 25 December 2014
... to high rates of aging can be detected somewhere between 30 and 50 years. This result corroborates our hypothesis about the existence of two distinct mortality regimes of latent and manifest aging. These results are also roughly in line with the estimates produced using the Gompertz model and judging its...
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Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (2): 577–598.
Published: 19 March 2020
...) and semiparametric (Cox) survival models to estimate the association between incarceration and mortality. Parametric models allow us to validate the data setup and to verify consistency of the adult mortality pattern we find in the data (constant and slope of the Gompertz model) with U.S. national data...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1998) 35 (4): 391–412.
Published: 01 November 1998
... Association , 81 , 635 – 44 . 10.2307/2288991 Manton , K.G. , Stallard , E. , Woodbury , M.A. , & Dowd , J.E. ( 1994 ). Time-Varying Covariates in Models of Human Mortality and Aging: Multidimensional Generalization of the Gompertz . Journal of Gerontology , 49 ( 4 ), B169...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
.... The number and com- plexity of mortality models have grown rapidly since Gompertz proposed the first "law of mortality" in 1825. A good model provides a simple but adequate mathematical descrip- tion of mortality by age and/or time. The objective is to identify fundamental and persis- tent patterns...
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in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
> Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 4 Predictions and 95 % prediction intervals (PI) for cohort fertility with and without the infecundity correction (IFC); Dutch female cohorts 1950 and 1955. Predictions use data up to age 30 and the Gompertz model with random walk with drift as the underlying process. Data are from
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Journal Article
Demography (1996) 33 (3): 357–374.
Published: 01 August 1996
... Gompertz Model References Alarcón R. ( 1992 ). Nortefiización: Self-Perpetuating Migration from a Mexican Town . In J.A. Bustamante , R. Hinojosa , & C. Reynolds (Eds.), U.S.-Mexico Relations: Labor Market Interdependence (pp. 302 – 18 ). Stanford : Stanford...
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in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
> Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 5 Predictions and 95 % prediction intervals (PIs) for completed cohort fertility at ages 30, 35, and 45 for Dutch female cohorts 1950–1977. Predictions and 95 % PIs are based on the Gompertz model with infecundity correction and random walk with drift as the underlying process. For each
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (3): 1097–1118.
Published: 10 April 2017
... transition The demographic literature has traditionally emphasized the age pattern of mortality at the two ends of the life span. Mortality rates in middle and older ages have been modeled by mathematical demographers for nearly two centuries (Gompertz 1825 ; Thiele and Sprague 1871 ; Wachter 2003...
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Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 1–15.
Published: 01 February 1997
... and Sacher (1952:459) noted that this biological model of injury and failure lead directly to the "mathematicophysical formu- lation" Gompertz (1825) derived to describe his law of hu- man mortality." For the remainder of the 1950s, the cumulant lethality function continued to playa dominant role...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (4): 587–606.
Published: 01 November 1983
...) would remain unbi- ased); (b) our estimated maximum ex- pectation of life at age 60; and (c) the total number of persons reported to be age 60 and above. In conjunction with these three items of information, we pos- it a model age pattern of mortality, wide- ly known as the Gompertz function...
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