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Future Trend

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Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 497–514.
Published: 01 June 1967
... of various characteristics of future population growth discussed in this paper is to show “in the light of contemporary information” future trends and some relationships of world population of world population growth to economic and social development. 24 1 2011 © Population Association...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (Suppl 1): S17–S40.
Published: 01 March 2010
... into the future. We review the past literature on trends in disability and other health indicators and then estimate the most recent trends in biomarkers and limitations for both the population aged 65 and older and those aged 40 to 64, the future elderly. We then investigate the extent to which trends...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (5): 1887–1903.
Published: 03 August 2018
... has not yet reached a lowest limit and is likely to decrease further in the near future. Trends in the three key features also raise questions about the importance of evolutionary, social, and biological determinants for the recent and future development of minimum mortality. 26 6 2018 3 8...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (2): 677–698.
Published: 09 March 2012
..., and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2043–2071.
Published: 03 November 2017
... for future trends in morbidity and mortality as well as public policy. References Alley D. E. , Lloyd J. , & Shardell M. ( 2011 ). Can obesity account for cross-national differences in life expectancy trends? . In E. Crimmins , S. Preston , & B. Cohen (Eds...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
...John Bongaarts Abstract In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 17–28.
Published: 01 February 2001
... TFR(t) neither represents any real cohort experiences from the past nor forecasts any future trend. It merely provides an improved reading of the period fertility measure, which reduces the tempo distortion. A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE BONGAARTS-FEENEY METHOD 17 Demography, Volume 38-Number 1...
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 657–672.
Published: 01 June 1967
... in fertility to the economic level of the region, while in 1951–61 and 1961-66 a very high and positive correlation can be observed. As for the future trends in fertility, two factors may have an important role. In the first place, on the one hand, the economic policy of the government, aiming at reducing...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (4): 1341–1362.
Published: 17 January 2013
...Fanny Janssen; Leo J. G. van Wissen; Anton E. Kunst Abstract We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 841–861.
Published: 04 June 2011
..., and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input parameters for formal...
Journal Article
Demography (1999) 36 (4): 461–473.
Published: 01 November 1999
..., education is most important in accounting for recent trends. The relationship between educational attainment and functioning has not changed measurably, but educational attainment has increased greatly during this period. Our analysis suggests, all else being equal, that future changes in education...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (2): 215–231.
Published: 01 May 2002
... antinatalism of Angola’s most modernized urban area stands out, but outside this area, differences between areas that were more and less affected by war are also noticeable. We offer interpretations of our findings and outline their implications for Angola’s demographic future and demographic trends in similar...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 135–157.
Published: 01 February 1997
... of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future...
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 525–538.
Published: 01 March 1968
.... Finally, rates of improvement remain greater for females than for males; differentials in mortality by residence, color, and social class will become even smaller; and mortality trends will be influenced increasingly by individual efforts in the future. 13 1 2011 © Population Association...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (2): 235–247.
Published: 01 May 1988
... are unlikely to abate in the foreseeable future. What has been the recent trend in illegitimacy in the United States? The answer depends on what aspect of nonmarital fertility is being measured. If the focus is on illegitimacy rates-the annual number of births per 1000 unmarried women aged 15-44...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (4): 587–616.
Published: 01 November 2002
... of the contemporary diversification of the population, provides several lessons about how to prepare for that future within a framework of social justice and how to realign recent demographic trends with cherished democratic principles. A review of historical and contemporary controversies about the representation...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (4): 845–868.
Published: 01 November 2010
... trends in population redistribution for the future of minority homeownership are discussed. 27 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2010 2010 Housing Price Housing Market Housing Stock Residential Segregation Housing Tenure References Alba R. , & Logan J...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 67–78.
Published: 01 February 2010
... upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (1): 183–208.
Published: 21 January 2015
... and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries—to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: (1) female deficit in sex ratios at birth; (2) declining...
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Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 442–452.
Published: 01 June 1967
... of recent trends in these proportions. Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure...