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Forecast Error
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Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 261–274.
Published: 01 May 1991
...Stanley K. Smith; Terry Sincich Abstract Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
...Stanley K. Smith; Terry Sincich Abstract A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (4): 537–549.
Published: 01 November 2001
...Ronald Lee; Timothy Miller Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 827–852.
Published: 04 December 2012
... %, 3.0 % to 4.99 %, 5.0 % to 9.99 %, and ≥10.0 %, respectively. Another analysis compares average forecast errors between the extended cohort-component approach and the still widely used classic headship-rate method, by projecting number-of-bedrooms–specific housing demands from 1990 to 2000...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
.... The 10-year predictions had a mean absolute error of about 1 year, about 40 % less than the current UN methodology. The probabilistic forecasts were calibrated in the sense that, for example, the 80 % prediction intervals contained the truth about 80 % of the time. We illustrate our method with results...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 741–757.
Published: 01 November 2003
... of America 2003 2003 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Population Projection Current Population Report Census Count References Alho J.M. ( 1990 ). Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting . International Journal of Forecasting , 6 , 521 – 30 . 10.1016/0169-2070...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
... not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts’ uncertainty. 7 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1986 1986 Forecast Error Population Projection Vital Rate Percent Confidence Interval Total Population Size An erratum...
Journal Article
Demography (1979) 16 (4): 575–601.
Published: 01 November 1979
... 1979 Forecast Error ARMA Model White Noise Process Transfer Function Model Total Birth References Australian Bureau of Statistics. 1976. Projections of the Population of Australia 1977 to 2001. Base Year 1976. (Preliminary Estimates). Canberra, Australia. Bates J. M...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (2): 569–589.
Published: 15 November 2012
... on the mechanisms underlying these biases, I develop and estimate a latent-factor model of how individuals form subjective forecasts. The estimates of this model’s parameters imply that these forecasts incorporate several important sources of measurement error that arguably swamp the useful information they convey...
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1559–1577.
Published: 05 July 2017
... that studying lifespan disparity may also help to improve the methodology and thus the predictive ability of mortality forecasts. Evaluation Forecasting performance Lifespan disparity Average lifespan Errors and test statistics of basic life table functions are useful for specifying precisely how...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 67–78.
Published: 01 February 2010
.... The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes. 27 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2010 2010 Forecast Error Prediction Interval Forecast Horizon Mortality Model Longevity Risk References Andreev K.F...
Journal Article
Demography (1996) 33 (4): 523–528.
Published: 01 November 1996
... and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1996 1996 Census Tract Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Average Percentage Error Population Forecast References Costner H. ( 1965...
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (4): 481–496.
Published: 01 November 1987
...Mark R. Montgomery 12 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1987 1987 Survival Probability Forecast Error Demand Equation Ideal Family Size Cumulative Fertility References R. Bulatao , & R. Lee ( 1983 ). Determinants of Fertility in Developing...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
... Time Series Model American Statistical Association Mean Absolute Percent Error Mortality Probability References Ascher , W. ( 1978 ). Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers . Baltimore, Md. : Johns Hopkins University Press . Bohara , A. K. , Bradley , M...
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (2): 193–201.
Published: 01 May 2000
... in the Distribution of Forecast Errors . Demography , 25 , 461 – 74 . 10.2307/2061544 Snedecor , G. , & Cochran , W. ( 1980 ). Statistical Methods . 7th ed. Ames : Iowa State Press . Snow , E.C. ( 1911 ). The Application of the Method of Multiple Correlation to the Estimation...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1755–1773.
Published: 03 October 2014
... autoregressive models because in our model, the latent factor is orthogonal to the GDP series by construction. The forecast results are compared using the root mean squared forecast error (RMSFE). Specially, denote as y it the true death rate at age i and year t , and denote as the corresponding...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (2): 191–210.
Published: 01 May 1982
... Theorem Forecast Error Confidence Inter Current Population Report Total Popula References Anscombe F. S. , & Tukey J. ( 1963 ). The Examination and Analysis of Residuals . Technometrics , 5 ( 2 ), 141 – 160 . 10.2307/1266059 Bennett C. , & Franklin N...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 261–283.
Published: 10 October 2012
... by taking the mean observational variance in the historical data. A prediction interval is then easily constructed under the assumption that the errors are normally distributed. Life expectancy forecasts are obtained from the forecast age-specific death rates using standard life table methods (Preston...
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (5): 1921–1946.
Published: 25 September 2017
..., u ̂ , and compute the forecasting error for the rest of the sample. For each group, we perform a cross-validation by letting u ̂ range from 2000 to one year before the end of the sample. In other words, we compare the forecast accuracy for the three models under a range of forecast...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (3): 1037–1060.
Published: 17 May 2012
...–84, and 85 and older. The SSA selects ultimate rates of decline based on subjective assessment. Next, through a complicated trial-and-error process performed by the OACT, an ultimate rate of decline is adjusted so the resulting forecast 75 to 80 years in the future is considered “reasonable...
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