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Journal Article
Demography (1973) 10 (3): 351–365.
Published: 01 August 1973
... for the construction of a parametric model for fertility projections. In light of the results of empirical tests based on fertility data for Canada, the model’s potential for birth projections appears quite promising. 27 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1973 1973 Total Fertility Rate Modal...
View articletitled, Pearsonian Type I curve and its <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> <span class="search-highlight">projection</span> potentials
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for article titled, Pearsonian Type I curve and its <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> <span class="search-highlight">projection</span> potentials
Journal Article
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 414–428.
Published: 01 March 1965
... of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1965 and 1970” (June 1962), and No. 251, “Interim Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1975 and 1980” (July 1962). 3 For examples of the period fertility method, see the following: Series P-25, No. 187; Bureau of the Census...
View articletitled, Cohort <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> versus parity progression as methods of <span class="search-highlight">projecting</span> births
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for article titled, Cohort <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> versus parity progression as methods of <span class="search-highlight">projecting</span> births
Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (1): 131–153.
Published: 01 March 1966
... ON THE RELATION OF ECONOMIC FACTORS TO RECENT AND PROJECTED FERTILITY CHANGES* RICHARD A. EASTERLIN University of Pennsylvania and National Bureau of Economic Research RESUMEN Este trabajo estuvo dirigido a analizar detalladamente las edades, de acuerdo a la muestra anual del Survey de los Estados Unidos, con el...
View articletitled, On the relation of economic factors to recent and <span class="search-highlight">projected</span> <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> changes
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for article titled, On the relation of economic factors to recent and <span class="search-highlight">projected</span> <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> changes
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
...Leontine Alkema; Adrian E. Raftery; Patrick Gerland; Samuel J. Clark; François Pelletier; Thomas Buettner; Gerhard K. Heilig Abstract We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes...
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View articletitled, Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of the Total <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Rate for All Countries
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for article titled, Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of the Total <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Rate for All Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (2): 101–115.
Published: 01 May 1969
... of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little...
View articletitled, Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span>
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for article titled, Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span>
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 226–248.
Published: 01 March 1968
... to rectify this deficiency. A population with an age structure, vital rates, and school enrollment rates representative of many countries in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa was projected for sixty years, according to the following sets of conditions: (a) constant fertility—constant educational...
View articletitled, The effects of differing trends in <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> and of educational advance on the growth, quality, and turnover of the labor force
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for article titled, The effects of differing trends in <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> and of educational advance on the growth, quality, and turnover of the labor force
Journal Article
Demography (1994) 31 (1): 1–20.
Published: 01 February 1994
...Timothy W. Guinnane; Barbara S. Okun; James Trussell Abstract The Princeton project on the decline of fertility in Europe (the European Fertility Project) suggested that this historical fertility transition occurred virtually simultaneously in a wide variety of economic and social environments...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (4): 1571–1595.
Published: 17 July 2020
...Gregory Clark; Neil Cummins; Matthew Curtis Abstract A conclusion of the European Fertility Project in 1986 was that pretransition populations mostly displayed natural fertility , where parity-dependent birth control was absent. This conclusion has recently been challenged for England by new...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Control in Pretransition Populations
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for article titled, Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Control in Pretransition Populations
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1975) 12 (1): 143–153.
Published: 01 February 1975
.... Birth intervals by parity are then inferred from the estimated parameters. The present model is developed for comparative analyses of fertility trends and for fertility projections which take into account ongoing changes in birth intervals and completed family-size distributions which may be observed...
Image
in The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions
> Demography
Published: 31 July 2017
Fig. 2 Population projected for China based on its own fertility and counterfactual fertility scenarios: 1970, 2015, and 2060 (numbers in millions). Data are projections from Table 2 . The nightmare scenario was projected by Song and Li ( 1980 )
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Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 460–474.
Published: 01 March 1968
..., and this complicates the use of marriage statistics for fertility projections or for other purposes. In order to select one best set of data, or at least to interpret the differences properly, the authors have compared the three sources for first marriages by sex. For the 1960's, first-marriage statistics are closefor...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (1): 35–50.
Published: 01 February 1972
... implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (3): 877–894.
Published: 01 June 2022
... violations of the constant proportional fertility assumption, the calculated values deviate from the observed values by an average of only 7–8%. Short-term projections suggest that U.S. cohort fertility will continue to decline. Cohort fertility has a clear heuristic appeal: women have children, mostly one...
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View articletitled, Relating Period and Cohort <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>
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for article titled, Relating Period and Cohort <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (2): 247–259.
Published: 01 May 1971
..., it seems not unreasonable to project generation fertility of 2.5 children, implying a crude birth rate of about 20 per thousand for the next fifteen years or so. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1971 1971 Generation Fertility Marriage Rate Crude Birth Rate Royal...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 251–266.
Published: 01 April 2024
... parity-specific rates and population composition by parity, which are also foundational to fertility projections and to many tools of mathematical demography. For example, rates constructed in this way could allow demographers to more accurately project and describe state-level population changes...
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View articletitled, U.S. <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in Life Course Context: A Research Note on Using Census-Held Linked Administrative Records for Geographic and Sociodemographic Subgroup Estimation
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for article titled, U.S. <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in Life Course Context: A Research Note on Using Census-Held Linked Administrative Records for Geographic and Sociodemographic Subgroup Estimation
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 915–937.
Published: 01 June 2023
... a significant impact on that area’s population forecast. We propose a method for probabilistic subnational population projections that attempts to resolve these challenging issues. For projecting fertility, we use the method of Ševčíková et al. (2018) , while for projecting mortality we use the method...
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View articletitled, Probabilistic County-Level Population <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
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for article titled, Probabilistic County-Level Population <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (4): 513–533.
Published: 01 November 1991
... in fertility timing (see Rindfuss and Parnell 1989). Future research should examine these and other possible explanations. Projecting Unobserved Cohort Experience A second use of recent data is to evaluate earlier projections of the proportion of women born in the 1950s who would remain permanently childless...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 419–438.
Published: 01 April 2024
... population size does not occur until several decades after fertility has reached that level. We extend Coale's results by modeling longevity increases, net immigration, and a slowdown in fertility decline that resembles current projections. With these extensions, our models predict a typical lag between...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (1): 51–68.
Published: 01 February 1972
... procedure in the 1930’s opened the way for separate analysis of the trend of the components of births, deaths, and net immigration in connection with making population projections. As a further development, the period-fertility method of projecting births gave way in the 1960’s to the cohort-fertility...
View articletitled, Development and accuracy of <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of population and households in the united states
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for article titled, Development and accuracy of <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of population and households in the united states
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 185–197.
Published: 01 March 1968
... mortalidad, e invesamente con edad de fertilidad media programada en proyecciones de mediano termino. Summary The significance in patterns of mortality for projections of population have been examined by projecting test stable populations classified by sex and age with constant fertility and declining...
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