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Extrapolation Projection
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Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (2): 405–427.
Published: 01 May 2009
... level in Wisconsin. The findings indicate that this approach does not outperform the extrapolation projections. Although the regression methods produce more precise projections, the least biased projections are often generated by one of the extrapolation techniques. The performance of the knowledge...
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (3): 1037–1060.
Published: 17 May 2012
... to solvency projections published in annual SSA OASDI Trustees Reports (see Olshansky 1988 ; Wilmoth 2005b ). Current SSA mortality forecasts are based on a combination of linear extrapolation from historical data and labor-intensive subjective choices of 70 interrelated ultimate rates of decline, which...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (2): 673–697.
Published: 27 October 2012
... health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an extension of the stochastic extrapolative models developed for forecasting total life expectancy could be applied, but instead of projecting total mortality...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (4): 1341–1362.
Published: 17 January 2013
... Population Association of America 2013 2013 Life expectancy Projection Smoking Europe Li-Lee methodology In most projections of mortality patterns, trends in mortality rates, life expectancy, or other life table parameters and their constructs are extrapolated (Bongaarts 2005 ; Murphy...
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Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
... year; 1910, the launch year; 1920, the target year; 1900-1910, the base period; and 1910-1920, the projection horizon. Four primary projection techniques were used. First was linear extrapolation (Line), which assumes that a population will increase (decrease) by the same number of persons in each...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
... on a simple extrapolation of historical trends in mortality rates, in life expectancy, or in model parameters. However, in projections for periods of more than a few decades, linear ex- trapolation can lead to implausible results, and expert judgment is then often used to de- cide which long-range levels...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1755–1773.
Published: 03 October 2014
... risk and the demand for more accurate projections of future mortality rates, a vast literature on mortality forecasting has been produced during the recent decade. The mortality forecasting methods can be divided into three categories (Booth and Tickle 2008 ): expectation, extrapolation...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (1): 27–49.
Published: 23 November 2013
... of probabilities of being found in various BMI states at some future date (Time 2), dependent on what state they were in at Time 1. A set of transition probabilities can also be applied to project the distribution from Time 2 to Time 3. Relative to extrapolation, this approach does not require specification...
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Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (4): 537–549.
Published: 01 November 2001
...Ronald Lee; Timothy Miller Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC...
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (4): 571–580.
Published: 01 November 1971
... was made. And finally, despite what I said ear- As long as a series changes uniformly, lier, models help prediction. Projections extrapolation will give a perfectly good by the United States Bureau of the Cen- forecast, and this was how reputa- sus, the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, tiona for forecasting...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 285–298.
Published: 01 August 1983
... Perspective . American Economic Review , 51 , 860 – 911 . Easterlin R. A. ( 1968 ). The Current Fertility Decline and Projected Fertility Changes. Chapter 5 in Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience . New York : Columbia University Press...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2037–2051.
Published: 01 August 2013
... forecasting Extrapolation In this article, we address a practical problem faced by the United Nations Population Division: how to modify the Lee-Carter method to project mortality over a long time horizon to the year 2100 for 196 countries and areas. The Lee-Carter method is based on extrapolating...
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (5): 1921–1946.
Published: 25 September 2017
...Tim J. Boonen; Hong Li Abstract Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 261–274.
Published: 01 May 1991
...., P. Voss, C. Palit and H. Krebs 1981. “On the Question of Errors in Population Projections.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC. Keyfitz , N. ( 1981 ). The Limits of Population Forecasting . Population and Development Review , 7...
Journal Article
Demography (2006) 43 (3): 569–585.
Published: 01 August 2006
... this assumption is violated so that the mortality rate varies with sib ship size, mortality estimates can be massively biased. By using insights from work on the statistical analysis of selection bias, survey weighting, and extrapolation problems, we propose a new and relatively simple method of recovering...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
... were to extrapolate the age-specific death rates, age by age using virtually any formula, one would obtain highly irregular rates within a very few cycles of projection. On a straight-line projection age by age, many ages would soon show negative death rates. One plainly ought to summarize the rates...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (4): 697–712.
Published: 01 November 2002
... Housing Unit Model for Tract Level Population and Household Estimates.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN, May 3–5. Keilman N. ( 1999 ). How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections? . In W. Lutz , J...
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
Published: 01 August 2021
... be if the age-specific rates do not change over the coming years. The five-year extrapolation method ( Myrskylä et al. 2013 ) extrapolates the trend from the past five years into the future and then freezes the rates. The extrapolation of trends performs well when older age fertility develops continuously...
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Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (4): 649–661.
Published: 01 November 1987
... projections, if some of the variation in the national changes in race and sex can be explained and some adjustments made, the actual changes may be the best proxy to use. NOTES 1 These totals are provided by analysts at the state or local level. One possible source is an extrapolation of current labor force...
Journal Article
Demography (1977) 14 (3): 363–368.
Published: 01 August 1977
... Projection Technique Population Forecast Labor Market Area Demographic Forecast Population Fore References Keyfitz , N. ( 1972 ). On Future Population . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 67 , 347 – 363 . 10.2307/2284381 Pittenger , Donald B. ( 1976...
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