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Exponential Decline
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Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 621–635.
Published: 01 November 2003
... hyperstable (QH) model, which relates exponentially changing fertility to the resultant exponentiated quadratic birth sequence. Modeling gradual transitions from an initial stable population to an ultimate stationary population indicates that such declines in fertility increase momentum by a product of two...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 705–709.
Published: 01 November 1989
... Exponential Decline Population Forecast Mortality Change References Keyfitz , N. ( 1985 ). Applied Mathematical Demography . 2nd ed. New York : Springer . Pollard , J. H. ( 1973 ). Mathematical Models for the Growth of Human Populations . London : Cambridge University Press...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (1): 13–33.
Published: 01 February 1972
... the form of the influence of metropolitan centers on the population characteristics of their hinterlands very well, but the best fitting models suggest that population density declines by distance according to an exponential function to the base e , percent urban declines according to a function to the one...
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 419–438.
Published: 01 April 2024
... population with constant mortality undergoing a steady decline in fertility rates. Specifically, the net maternity function in Coale's renewal equation has the form φ( a,t ) = φ 0 ( a ) e kt with age a , time t , and constant k < 0, so the period net reproduction rate (NRR) declines exponentially...
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Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 513–519.
Published: 01 November 1976
.... impact of an exponential decline on popu- However, for approximately stable popu- lation growth and a comparison of results lations, Keyfitz found that the results were with the model developed by Keyfitz. Par- close to the model values, as they should ticular cases, corresponding to varying be. To avoid...
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (1): 55–74.
Published: 01 February 1969
... it will at the center while structure density and units per structure will do the opposite. THE NEGATIVE EXPONENTIAL MODEL The decline of population density with distance from the center of a metropolis can be expressed mathematically. This mathematical relationship was noted empirically by Clark (1951, pp. 490- 496...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (3): 1097–1118.
Published: 10 April 2017
... that describe the exponentially declining mortality hazard during childhood and a flat background component, reflecting the overall level of mortality. This five-parameter model captures the U-shaped pattern of mortality across the lifespan more fully than the Gompertz-Makeham model and its extensions (Engelman...
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Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 405–412.
Published: 01 August 1984
... and 1971 population, and hence crude density, rose by 20.5 per- AN EXPONENTIAL MODEL With the classic spatial model of popu- lation distribution within an urban settle- ment, in which there is an exponential decline in density with increasing dis- tance from the center, the average crude density...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 103–125.
Published: 01 February 2009
.... The GWESP statistic de nes a parametric form of this count distribution that gives Using Exponential Random Graph Models to Investigate Adolescent Social Networks 111 each additional shared partner a declining positive impact on the probability of two persons forming a tie. This approach has a clear...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
...) well. The implication of assuming a linear trend in K(t) to continue into the future is that mortality rates at all ages follow an exponential decline. That is, the projected proportional rate of mortality decline p(x,t) in a future year t varies by age, but it is assumed to remain equal at each age...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
... the observed population sizes consistently fall below the point estimates. It is hardly surprising that exponential extrapolation fails to capture the long-term trend of declining rates of growth in Sweden's population size. Of greater interest is the ability of the confidence intervals to contain the realized...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 571–575.
Published: 01 November 1976
...Linton C. Freeman; Morris H. Sunshine Abstract Data from the urban renewal experience in Syracuse, New York are used to examine the impact of race on patterns of intra-urban migration. The results show that, overall, the migration patterns exhibited an exponential decay in frequency with increasing...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (5): 1563–1591.
Published: 07 June 2013
...Ting Li; Yang Claire Yang; James J. Anderson Abstract Deviations from the Gompertz law of exponential mortality increases in late-middle and early-old age are commonly neglected in overall mortality analyses. In this study, we examined mortality increase patterns between ages 40 and 85 in 16 low...
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Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (1): 79–86.
Published: 01 February 1983
... maternity function has explicit time dependence, in contrast to age dependence, only for time less than the minimum age of childbearing, the standard techniques still may be used. It is shown that the recent extensions of Cerone and Keane to include exponential time dependence may be applied, together...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (2): 275–282.
Published: 01 May 1986
..., the survivorship curve declines exponentially, H equals unity (as integration in equation (6) will show) and a change 8 in the death rates is reflected by an equal proportionate change in eo. For a life table that declines linearly with age. the value of H lies halfway between those described above, i.e., H = l/2...
Journal Article
Demography (1973) 10 (2): 289–299.
Published: 01 May 1973
... ways. "The teristic local data where global measure- basic behavior mode of the world sys- ments had not been made" [po 90 and stern is exponential growth of population most of the charts indicate a base-period and capital followed by collapse" (p. of 1900-1970 although many specific re- 143). Going...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 79–95.
Published: 01 February 2001
... or homogeneous- subpopulation mortality hazards are exponential, we would expect to observe an increase in both coordinates of the in- flection point over time, as subpopulations become more similar. Instead we see increasing ages of deceleration coupled with a decline in the mortality rate at which decel...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 137–139.
Published: 01 February 1986
... decline that set in after 1957-58. Butz and Ward (1977), whose findings Devaney's model supports, suffer the same ambiguity. In their paper, as I have noted elsewhere (Smith 1981: 248-249), as well as in Devaney's, a simple linear or exponential function will substitute quite adequately for the wage...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 261–274.
Published: 01 May 1991
...Stanley K. Smith; Terry Sincich Abstract Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (3): 1071–1092.
Published: 01 June 2022
...Joshua Wassink; Douglas S. Massey Abstract Between 2000 and 2020, undocumented migration declined, temporary labor migration rose, and legal permanent residents arrived at a steady pace—together creating a new system of Mexico–U.S. migration based on the circulation of legal temporary workers...
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