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Cyclic Component

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Journal Article
Demography (1970) 7 (2): 155–167.
Published: 01 May 1970
... rate. The procedure involved in comparing each component of one fertility sequence with the corresponding component of another is described and illustrated. Using hypothetical data it is shown, among other things, that if A and B are two cyclical fluctuations in fertility such that (i) the cycles...
Journal Article
Demography (1993) 30 (3): 405–423.
Published: 01 August 1993
... 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1993 1993 Measle Eighteenth Century Smallpox Cyclic Component Filter Window References Alter George , & Riley James C. ( 1989 ). Frailty, Sickness and Death: Models of Morbidity and Mortality in Historical...
Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (2): 305–318.
Published: 01 June 1966
.... Musgrave, "The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program," U.S. Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15 (1965). OBSERVED RATES 2B z 0 ii 27 J 0- 260 0- 0 0 s a:: 24 ur 0- W a:: 22 SEASONAL COMPONENT 110 105 '"100 ~ '"z -i CYCLICAL COMPONENT . IRREGULAR COMPONENT ::rc:Jt~ i 1957...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (2): 507–530.
Published: 21 April 2011
... index series of Johansen ( 1985 ) and Mitchell ( 2003 ). 5 Next, we perform a trend/cycle decomposition of log annual real per capita GDP, using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. We use smoothing parameter 100, which ensures that the time series of the cyclical component (or deviation) of GDP does...
FIGURES | View All (4)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (3): 397–411.
Published: 01 August 1990
... to other frequencies. That is, it minimizes the extent to which "tails" of a strong cyclical component may artificiallycontribute to cyclesat other frequencies. The "window" used in our analysis was a split-cosine bell. The proportion tapering was a standard .25. Tukey (1967) suggested 10-20% tapering...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (3): 933–959.
Published: 05 June 2017
... cyclical component, we apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter in the same manner as van den Berg et al. ( 2006 ). Figure 1 depicts the observed unemployment rate, its trend, and its cyclical component (i.e., the difference between the unemployment rate and its trend). Our indicator of an economic downturn...
FIGURES | View All (5)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 227–247.
Published: 01 February 2010
..., and the probability of moving into unemployment has a strong cyclical component. These results essentially con¿ rm the previous ¿ nding that the movement from employ- ment to unemployment for black men is more responsive to the business cycle than that for white men. An examination of movement from employment...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (4): 613–622.
Published: 01 November 1984
... at all growth rates be- tween r = - .03 and r = + .03, while in one or both directions the other formulas worsen progressively with increasing r. The sharply lower 1930 survival rates (not shown) display similar patterns. Introducing a cyclic component sharp- er than that of the U.S. postwar baby boom...
Journal Article
Demography (1970) 7 (1): 93–120.
Published: 01 February 1970
...(t» + i l1 e-'IJq,(a)h(t - a) da(l + g(t», (6) FOURIER REPRESENTATION OF CYCLICAL VARIATIONS IN FERTILITY AND OF THE or RESULTANT CYCLlCAL COMPONENT IN THE BIRTH SEQUENCE We shall now assume that eyclieal fluctuations in fertility take the form of a eonstant age pattern of net fertility that rises...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (4): 647–669.
Published: 01 November 2009
... and cyclical components taken separately. Disease, not income, appears to have been the constraining factor in these rich countries, at least after 1950. We start by presenting these ndings. We then discuss the broader literature that links childhood circumstance to adult height, and we develop a simple...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 323–332.
Published: 01 May 1991
...-June, pp.32-38. Danziger , S. H. ( 1986 ). Do Rising Tides Lift All Boats? The Impact of Secular and Cyclical Changes on Poverty . American Economic Review , 76 ( 2 ), 405 – 10 . Danziger , S. H. ( 1986 ). Work, Poverty, and the Working Poor: A Multifaceted Problem . Monthly...
Journal Article
Demography (2004) 41 (4): 801–819.
Published: 01 November 2004
... was not correct, drastically circumscribing the mathemati- cal basis of the Bongaarts-Feeney adjustment. They also demonstrated that the Bongaarts-Feeney adjustment yielded unstable and inappropriate values when the fertil- ity schedule moved cyclically over time. In their reply to criticisms from van Imhoff...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 79–95.
Published: 01 February 1982
... separation, let us assume for the moment that sepa- ration is both seasonal and complete. We wish to partition the months entering into the average birth interval P-44* under cyclic separation into four components according to whether they are months of separation or nonseparation and, simul- taneously...
Journal Article
Demography (1973) 10 (2): 185–204.
Published: 01 May 1973
... of annual data of total fertility, unemployment, GNP and an index of industrial production. Total fertility tends to respond to the cyclical indicators among Jews from Europe and America, those born in Israel and those from Asian and African countries, but the response is larger among the former. Cyclical...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (1): 189–221.
Published: 29 January 2018
... assistance alone, where cyclical and structural labor market factors account for at least one-half of the growth, and demographics play a more prominent role. Moreover, since 2000, the business cycle factors as the leading determinant in biennial participation decisions in food programs and refundable tax...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2004) 41 (1): 61–86.
Published: 01 February 2004
... the EITC.25 Simulations Because median wages and wage inequality have a cyclical component and thus respond to changes in the unemployment rate and the employment growth rate, the interpretation of model estimates in Tables 1 4 containing the full set of macroeconomic indicators is muddied. To interpret...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (4): 639–652.
Published: 01 November 1990
...: Dilemmas in Epidemiology, Gerontology, and Public Policy . Social Science Medicine , 23 , 1217 – 1227 . 10.1016/0277-9536(86)90284-4 Macunovich, D. J. (1990). “An Evaluation of the Butz Ward Hypothesis of Counter-cyclical Fertility.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (6): 2161–2180.
Published: 08 October 2018
... as the pool of migrants becomes more selective toward those with greater earnings gains from migrating. 4 Our evidence favors neither lower returns to migration nor higher costs of migrating. We find substantial cyclicality but no clear trend in earnings gains for migrants in our data. Consistent...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (1): 99–115.
Published: 01 February 1989
.... Cycles sustained by feedback mechanisms are not the only sort of cycles that might be observed. Cycles can be imposed on a population renewal process by cyclic patterns in the economic or natural environment to which the population responds. These would be ex- ogenously generated cycles, and many...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (5): 1747–1764.
Published: 26 August 2019
... 1976 to 2010. He observed, however, that the mechanisms behind (pro)cyclical variation in mortality remain poorly understood. In our case, even in the 1980s or 1990s, the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and total mortality is not procyclical. Two broad mechanisms have been proposed...
Includes: Supplementary data