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Total fertility rate (TFR) in China and counterfactual scenarios, 1970–2060. For China, the annual TFR series 1970–1989 is drawn from Banister (1987) and Feeney and Yuan (1994). These estimates are adjusted within each five-year interval to match estimates provided by UNPD (2015). From 1990–2014, annual TFR estimates are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau (2015). The projection for China from 2015–2020 incorporates a slight bump up for a possible increase following the lifting of one-child restrictions. See the text for further details. For Vietnam and India, estimates come from UNPD (2015), which are provided in five-year intervals. These estimates were interpolated in order to center on years ending in 0 and 5, and then spliced and pasted such that the TFR in 1970 matched that which China had (5.8). Years shown in legend parentheses indicate the actual year in which their TFRs were estimated to be 5.8. Given that Vietnam’s estimated TFRs from censuses and annual surveys are consistently above UNPD estimates from the 1990s forward, an additional upward adjustment was made to UNPD estimates for 1990–1995 to match official estimates, and then TFRs were interpolated between that interval and UNDP estimates for 2015. For the 16-country comparator, TFRs were chosen to produce CBR estimates matching those listed in Wang et al. (2013) for 1990 and 1998. An additional TFR average was constructed for 2015. All scenarios are presumed to converge after 2015 to a TFR of 1.5 by 2060. Sources: United Nations Population Division (2015); U.S. Census Bureau (International Database 2015); other Chinese sources listed in Banister (1987); and Feeney and Yuan (1994)

Total fertility rate (TFR) in China and counterfactual scenarios, 1970–2060...

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in The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions > Demography
Published: 31 July 2017
Fig. 1 Total fertility rate (TFR) in China and counterfactual scenarios, 1970–2060. For China, the annual TFR series 1970–1989 is drawn from Banister ( 1987 ) and Feeney and Yuan ( 1994 ). These estimates are adjusted within each five-year interval to match estimates provided by UNPD ( 2015 More
Journal Article

Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy

Open Access
Massimo Anelli, Nicoletta Balbo
Demography (2021) 58 (2): 631–654.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9001598
Published: 01 April 2021
...Massimo Anelli; Nicoletta Balbo Abstract How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence...
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View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Drain or <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Gain? Emigration and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> During the Great Recession in Italy View PDF for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Drain or <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Gain? Emigration and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> During the Great Recession in Italy
Includes: Supplementary data
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Population projected for China based on its own fertility and counterfactual fertility scenarios: 1970, 2015, and 2060 (numbers in millions). Data are projections from Table 2. The nightmare scenario was projected by Song and Li (1980)

Population projected for China based on its own fertility and counterfactua...

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in The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions > Demography
Published: 31 July 2017
Fig. 2 Population projected for China based on its own fertility and counterfactual fertility scenarios: 1970, 2015, and 2060 (numbers in millions). Data are projections from Table 2 . The nightmare scenario was projected by Song and Li ( 1980 ) More
Journal Article

The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions

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Daniel Goodkind
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1375–1400.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-017-0595-x
Published: 31 July 2017
...Fig. 1 Total fertility rate (TFR) in China and counterfactual scenarios, 1970–2060. For China, the annual TFR series 1970–1989 is drawn from Banister ( 1987 ) and Feeney and Yuan ( 1994 ). These estimates are adjusted within each five-year interval to match estimates provided by UNPD ( 2015...
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View articletitled, The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions View PDF for article titled, The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions
Journal Article

Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”

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James M. Raymo, Akihisa Shibata
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2301–2329.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-017-0614-y
Published: 02 October 2017
..., while changes in women’s employment are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. The latter association outweighs the former, and results of counterfactual standardization analyses indicate that Japan’s total fertility rate would have been 10 % to 20 % lower than the observed rate after 1995...
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View articletitled, Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years” View PDF for article titled, Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”
Journal Article

If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments)

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Daniel Goodkind
Demography (2018) 55 (2): 743–768.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0661-z
Published: 05 April 2018
... fertility rate (ASFR) pattern for China in 2000 was applied to the 16-country comparator in 2015 rather than 2000, as stated in the manuscript (and assumed by the other counterfactual models). That error caused a slower interpolation of China's ASFRs since 1970 and a corresponding reduction in population...
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View articletitled, If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments) View PDF for article titled, If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments)
Journal Article

Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries

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Gordey Yastrebov, Vanessa Wittemann
Demography (2024) 61 (4): 1117–1142.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11463595
Published: 01 August 2024
.... However, it is also not entirely correct to say that fertility does not matter. Although our counterfactual decomposition analysis revealed that fertility's contribution to mobility is generally rather small—substantially smaller than the effect of the intergenerational inheritance of advantage—the extent...
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View articletitled, Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries View PDF for article titled, Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
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Factual and counterfactual rates of educational reproduction. Counterfactual 1 (CF1) and Counterfactual 2 (CF2) relate to counterfactual rates of educational reproduction if high-educated had fertility behavior of low-educated (CF1), and vice versa (CF2). See Table B4 in the online appendix for precise estimates.

Factual and counterfactual rates of educational reproduction. Counterfactua...

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in Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data > Demography
Published: 17 August 2020
Fig. 4 Factual and counterfactual rates of educational reproduction. Counterfactual 1 (CF1) and Counterfactual 2 (CF2) relate to counterfactual rates of educational reproduction if high-educated had fertility behavior of low-educated (CF1), and vice versa (CF2). See Table B 4 in the online More
Journal Article

Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data

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Jan Skopek, Thomas Leopold
Demography (2020) 57 (4): 1241–1270.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00896-2
Published: 17 August 2020
...Fig. 4 Factual and counterfactual rates of educational reproduction. Counterfactual 1 (CF1) and Counterfactual 2 (CF2) relate to counterfactual rates of educational reproduction if high-educated had fertility behavior of low-educated (CF1), and vice versa (CF2). See Table B 4 in the online...
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View articletitled, Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data View PDF for article titled, Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

The Rise of Sonless Families in Asia and North Africa

Open Access
Roshan K. Pandian, Keera Allendorf
Demography (2022) 59 (2): 761–786.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9815547
Published: 01 April 2022
... and 54% of the global population. We also compare observed trends to sex-indifferent counterfactuals, quantify contributions of fertility declines with decompositions, and investigate subnational trends in China and India. Increases in sons-only families were universal where numbers of children fell...
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View articletitled, The Rise of Sonless Families in Asia and North Africa View PDF for article titled, The Rise of Sonless Families in Asia and North Africa
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market

Open Access
Fumiya Uchikoshi, James M. Raymo, Shohei Yoda
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 939–963.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-10741873
Published: 01 June 2023
.... Source: Japanese National Fertility Surveys (1982–2015). Fig. 2 Observed and counterfactual total first-marriage rates (TFMRs) for men and women. FA = forces of attraction. AR = availability ratios. Source: Japanese National Fertility Surveys (1982–2015). As in earlier studies (e.g., Fukuda et...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market View PDF for article titled, Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy

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Feng Wang, Yong Cai, Ke Shen, Stuart Gietel-Basten
Demography (2018) 55 (2): 693–719.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0658-7
Published: 05 April 2018
... an instrumental role in the relatively short term under the right social and cultural contexts. 10 This statement is not consistent with the fertility assumption he used in his projection, which assumes that fertility for all the counterfactuals converge to a TFR of 1.5 by 2060. If that assumption...
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View articletitled, Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy View PDF for article titled, Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy
Journal Article

Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage

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James M. Raymo, Hyunjoon Park
Demography (2020) 57 (1): 171–194.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00844-9
Published: 09 January 2020
..., fertility, and population aging in societies where the spread of nonmarital cohabitation has been slow and childbearing remains tightly linked with marriage. This is particularly true in East Asian societies where marriage remains central to family life, intergenerational relationships, and social...
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View articletitled, Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage View PDF for article titled, Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage
Journal Article

Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?

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Paula England, Lawrence L. Wu, Emily Fitzgibbons Shafer
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2075–2104.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0241-1
Published: 26 September 2013
... precedes all births (save some resulting from assisted fertility techniques), changes across cohorts toward earlier age at first intercourse or increases in frequency of premarital sex following onset will, all else being equal, increase premarital conceptions at any given age (Bongaarts and Potter 1983...
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View articletitled, Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage? View PDF for article titled, Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition

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Amar Hamoudi, Jenna Nobles
Demography (2014) 51 (4): 1423–1449.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0305-x
Published: 15 July 2014
... cell that fertilizes it: if the cell is of type Y, the pregnancy is male; if it is of type X, the pregnancy is female. Counterfactual interpretations hold that some divorced couples with a daughter would still be married if a Y-type sperm had fertilized the pregnancy instead of the X-type sperm...
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View articletitled, Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition View PDF for article titled, Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition
Includes: Supplementary data
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Fig. 2 Observed and counterfactual total first-marriage rates (TFMRs) for men and women. FA = forces of attraction. AR = availability ratios. Source: Japanese National Fertility Surveys (1982–2015).

Observed and counterfactual total first-marriage rates (TFMRs) for men and ...

Open Access
in Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market > Demography
Published: 01 June 2023
Fig. 2 Observed and counterfactual total first-marriage rates (TFMRs) for men and women. FA = forces of attraction. AR = availability ratios. Source: Japanese National Fertility Surveys (1982–2015). More
Journal Article

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship Between Fertility Timing and Schooling

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Kevin Stange
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 931–956.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0050-3
Published: 30 June 2011
...) The first component of the right-hand side estimates the counterfactual educational investment pattern for mothers using nonmothers with a similar fertility risk at the end of high school. 18 The last two terms calculate the average deviation from this estimated counterfactual for the 15 periods before...
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View articletitled, A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship Between <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Timing and Schooling View PDF for article titled, A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship Between <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Timing and Schooling
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

An Overlapping Cohorts Perspective of Lifespan Inequality

Open Access
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, José Andrade, Mikko Myrskylä
Demography (2025) 62 (2): 441–465.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11876384
Published: 01 April 2025
... cohort's experience. More generally, any variation in rates over time creates a mismatch between the synthetic period and true cohort experiences. This sensitivity to temporary variations in rates is particularly widely recognized in the context of the analysis of fertility rates, as fertility delays may...
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View articletitled, An Overlapping Cohorts Perspective of Lifespan Inequality View PDF for article titled, An Overlapping Cohorts Perspective of Lifespan Inequality
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Legal Recognition of Same-Sex Couples and Family Formation

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Mircea Trandafir
Demography (2015) 52 (1): 113–151.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0361-2
Published: 09 January 2015
... of specification checks, including the construction of counterfactuals using the synthetic control method. In addition, the country-by-country case studies provide evidence of homogeneity of the estimated effects. As mentioned in the Empirical Strategy section, difference-in-difference models are based on two...
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View articletitled, Legal Recognition of Same-Sex Couples and Family Formation View PDF for article titled, Legal Recognition of Same-Sex Couples and Family Formation
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Shared Lifetimes, Multigenerational Exposure, and Educational Mobility

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Xi Song, Robert D. Mare
Demography (2019) 56 (3): 891–916.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00772-8
Published: 16 May 2019
... attainment. We also obtain counterfactual estimates based on alternative assumptions about changes in fertility and mortality. In particular, we examine the effects of mortality, fertility levels (measured by the gross reproduction rate), mean age of childbearing, and variance of age at childbearing...
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View articletitled, Shared Lifetimes, Multigenerational Exposure, and Educational Mobility View PDF for article titled, Shared Lifetimes, Multigenerational Exposure, and Educational Mobility
Includes: Supplementary data