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A hypothetical fertility contour map with cohort shifts. Cohort fertility is unchanged during the shift, but synthetic cohort fertility is compressed during the shift years. a The trajectories of two cohorts. The first completes fertility before shifts begin. The second undergoes fertility during the shift years. b The fertility trajectories of two synthetic cohorts, one predating the shifts and one during a period with shifts

A hypothetical fertility contour map with cohort shifts. Cohort fertility i...

in A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement > Demography
Published: 19 September 2014
Fig. 1 A hypothetical fertility contour map with cohort shifts. Cohort fertility is unchanged during the shift, but synthetic cohort fertility is compressed during the shift years. a The trajectories of two cohorts. The first completes fertility before shifts begin. The second undergoes More
Image
Fig. 2 Completed cohort fertility by age 40 in Japan derived from cohort data (circles) and from diagonals of period data (crosses) for cohorts 1935–1980. The inset panel shows the percentage differences between the two measures (cohort from period diagonal minus the true cohort).

Completed cohort fertility by age 40 in Japan derived from cohort data (cir...

in The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note > Demography
Published: 01 December 2023
Fig. 2 Completed cohort fertility by age 40 in Japan derived from cohort data (circles) and from diagonals of period data (crosses) for cohorts 1935–1980. The inset panel shows the percentage differences between the two measures (cohort from period diagonal minus the true cohort). More
Journal Article

Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated Cohort Fertility Levels

Maria Winkler-Dworak, Maria Pohl, Eva Beaujouan
Demography (2024) 61 (3): 687–710.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11315685
Published: 01 June 2024
... models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970–1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion...
FIGURES | View All (6)
View articletitled, Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Levels View PDF for article titled, Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Levels
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Conceptive Delay, Nonsusceptible Period, and Cohort Fertility Patterns

Che-Fu Lee, Kuang-Hua Lin
Demography (1975) 12 (1): 143–153.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060739
Published: 01 February 1975
...Che-Fu Lee; Kuang-Hua Lin Abstract A model of cohort fertility pattern by duration of marriage is built on the parameters of conceptive risk, its decline along parity, and the length of the nonsusceptible period. The model is found to fit satis-factorily a variety of cohort fertility patterns...
View articletitled, Conceptive Delay, Nonsusceptible Period, and <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Patterns View PDF for article titled, Conceptive Delay, Nonsusceptible Period, and <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Patterns
Journal Article

Relating Period and Cohort Fertility

Robert Schoen
Demography (2022) 59 (3): 877–894.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9936991
Published: 01 June 2022
...Robert Schoen Abstract From a population perspective, the trajectories of both the total fertility at successive time periods and the total fertility of successive birth cohorts are derived from the same array of age-specific fertility rates. This analysis uses the assumption of constant age...
FIGURES | View All (4)
View articletitled, Relating Period and <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> View PDF for article titled, Relating Period and <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed Cohort Fertility in Finland

Linus Andersson, Marika Jalovaara, Caroline Uggla, Jan Saarela
Demography (2022) 59 (6): 2321–2339.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-10351787
Published: 01 December 2022
...Linus Andersson; Marika Jalovaara; Caroline Uggla; Jan Saarela Abstract An extensive literature theorizes the role of repartnering for cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher order unions are nonmarital cohabitations, but most previous...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in Finland View PDF for article titled, Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in Finland
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in Cohort Fertility in South Korea

Jisoo Hwang
Demography (2023) 60 (2): 563–582.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-10585316
Published: 01 April 2023
... recent trends in the country's cohort fertility covering women born before the 1960s to those born in the 1980s. Analyzing outcomes at both the intensive margin of fertility (i.e., timing and number of children) and the extensive margin of family formation (i.e., marriage and childlessness), I document...
FIGURES | View All (5)
View articletitled, Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in South Korea View PDF for article titled, Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in South Korea
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Cohort fertility versus parity progression as methods of projecting births

Donald S. Akers
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 414–428.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060128
Published: 01 March 1965
... fecundidad por cohortes podría proporcionar distribuciones razonables de los nacimientos por edad de la madre, y de la mujeres según la paridez al término del período de fecundidad, y permitiría elaborar proyecciones aceptables a corto y a largo plazo. Total Fertility Rate Fertility Method Birth...
View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> versus parity progression as methods of projecting births View PDF for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> versus parity progression as methods of projecting births
Journal Article

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

Julia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisén, Vitor Miranda, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth ...
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9373618
Published: 01 August 2021
...Julia Hellstrand; Jessica Nisén; Vitor Miranda; Peter Fallesen; Lars Dommermuth; Mikko Myrskylä Abstract With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen...
FIGURES | View All (7)
View articletitled, Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in the Nordic Countries View PDF for article titled, Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in the Nordic Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
Image
Underlying process g(t) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g(t). Panel B: Predicted g(t) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating cohort-specific drifts for ages up to 30. We then fit a model to ages older than 30 and estimate IFC by minimizing the weighted sum of squared errors. The weights wt = (45 – t + 1)/(15 ⋅ 8) decline linearly so that w31 = 1/8 and w45 = 1/(15 ⋅ 8). This specification gives more weight for younger ages whose fertility contribution is larger than that of older ages. Note that although the drifts are cohort specific, IFC is shared by the cohorts. This estimated IFC is 1.118; that is, for each additional year above age 30, the pace of the decline in g(t) accelerates by 11.8 %. Source: Cohort TFR is from the Human Fertility Database (2011); g(t) and IFC are from authors’ calculations

Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the ...

in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility > Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating More
Image
Underlying process g(t) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g(t). Panel B: Predicted g(t) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating cohort-specific drifts for ages up to 30. We then fit a model to ages older than 30 and estimate IFC by minimizing the weighted sum of squared errors. The weights wt = (45 – t + 1)/(15 ⋅ 8) decline linearly so that w31 = 1/8 and w45 = 1/(15 ⋅ 8). This specification gives more weight for younger ages whose fertility contribution is larger than that of older ages. Note that although the drifts are cohort specific, IFC is shared by the cohorts. This estimated IFC is 1.118; that is, for each additional year above age 30, the pace of the decline in g(t) accelerates by 11.8 %. Source: Cohort TFR is from the Human Fertility Database (2011); g(t) and IFC are from authors’ calculations

Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the ...

in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility > Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating More
Image
Predictions and 95 % prediction intervals (PI) for cohort fertility with and without the infecundity correction (IFC); Dutch female cohorts 1950 and 1955. Predictions use data up to age 30 and the Gompertz model with random walk with drift as the underlying process. Data are from the Human Mortality Database (2010)

Predictions and 95 % prediction intervals (PI) for cohort fertility with an...

in Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility > Demography
Published: 27 October 2012
Fig. 4 Predictions and 95 % prediction intervals (PI) for cohort fertility with and without the infecundity correction (IFC); Dutch female cohorts 1950 and 1955. Predictions use data up to age 30 and the Gompertz model with random walk with drift as the underlying process. Data are from More
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Cohort fertility rate total (CFR) and conditional on parenthood (PFR) for men and women in East and West Germany by educational level and cohort. Data are from NEPS and SOEP (pooled) matched with external data on childlessness (see the text for details).

Cohort fertility rate total (CFR) and conditional on parenthood (PFR) for m...

in Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data > Demography
Published: 17 August 2020
Fig. 1 Cohort fertility rate total (CFR) and conditional on parenthood (PFR) for men and women in East and West Germany by educational level and cohort. Data are from NEPS and SOEP (pooled) matched with external data on childlessness (see the text for details). More
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Fig. 7 Observed completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) for the 1970–1974 cohorts and forecasted CFR for the 1975–1988 cohorts in the Nordic countries. The unbroken black line indicates the threshold for very low fertility, at 1.75. CI = confidence interval. Sources: Authors' calculations based on Nordic Statistical Bureaus (2020) and the Human Fertility Database (2020).

Observed completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) for the 1970–1974 cohorts an...

in Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries > Demography
Published: 01 August 2021
Fig. 7 Observed completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) for the 1970–1974 cohorts and forecasted CFR for the 1975–1988 cohorts in the Nordic countries. The unbroken black line indicates the threshold for very low fertility, at 1.75. CI = confidence interval. Sources: Authors' calculations based More
Journal Article

Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility

Mikko Myrskylä, Joshua R. Goldstein
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0154-4
Published: 27 October 2012
...Fig. 3 Underlying process g ( t ) in Gompertz model for cohort fertility and the infecundity correction (IFC). Data: Dutch female cohorts 1960–1970. Panel A: Observed g ( t ). Panel B: Predicted g ( t ) based on the estimated IFC and data up to age 30. We estimate the IFC by first estimating...
FIGURES | View All (6)
View articletitled, Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> Processes of Marriage and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> View PDF for article titled, Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> Processes of Marriage and <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span>
Journal Article

A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement

Joshua R. Goldstein, Thomas Cassidy
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1797–1819.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7
Published: 19 September 2014
...Fig. 1 A hypothetical fertility contour map with cohort shifts. Cohort fertility is unchanged during the shift, but synthetic cohort fertility is compressed during the shift years. a The trajectories of two cohorts. The first completes fertility before shifts begin. The second undergoes...
FIGURES | View All (4)
View articletitled, A <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> Model of <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Postponement View PDF for article titled, A <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> Model of <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> Postponement
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Fig. 2 Period and cohort total fertility under cubic fertility trajectories

Period and cohort total fertility under cubic fertility trajectories

in Relating Period and Cohort Fertility > Demography
Published: 01 June 2022
Fig. 2 Period and cohort total fertility under cubic fertility trajectories More
Image
Fig. 3 Observed period and cohort total fertility and estimated total fertility, United States, 1917–2019

Observed period and cohort total fertility and estimated total fertility, U...

in Relating Period and Cohort Fertility > Demography
Published: 01 June 2022
Fig. 3 Observed period and cohort total fertility and estimated total fertility, United States, 1917–2019 More
Journal Article

Cohort, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant Fertility in West Germany

Jeylan Erman
Demography (2022) 59 (1): 221–246.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9629146
Published: 01 February 2022
...Jeylan Erman Abstract Although a growing literature explores the relationship between migration and fertility, far less scholarship has examined how migrant childbearing varies over time, including across migrant cohorts. I extend previous research by exploring migrant-cohort differences...
FIGURES | View All (4)
View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span>, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in West Germany View PDF for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span>, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant <span class="search-highlight">Fertility</span> in West Germany
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article

Cohort parity analysis: Statistical estimates of the extent of fertility control

Paul A. David, Thomas A. Mroz, Warren C. Sanderson, Kenneth W. Wachter, David R. Weir
Demography (1988) 25 (2): 163–188.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061287
Published: 01 May 1988
...Paul A. David; Thomas A. Mroz; Warren C. Sanderson; Kenneth W. Wachter; David R. Weir Abstract Cohort parity analysis (CPA) is a method for indirect measurement of the extent and timing of the adoption of fertility control within marriage. It uses information on the parity distribution of a cohort...
View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> parity analysis: Statistical estimates of the extent of <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> control View PDF for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Cohort</span> parity analysis: Statistical estimates of the extent of <span class="search-highlight">fertility</span> control