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Bayesian models

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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2053–2073.
Published: 01 August 2013
.... We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2025–2041.
Published: 10 October 2017
... death counts is relatively high, and thus the underlying mortality levels are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mortality at the subnational level. The model builds on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, which are constructed using principal components from a set...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (4): 1363–1388.
Published: 05 July 2018
... like Brazil. 6 6 2018 5 7 2018 © Population Association of America 2018 2018 Mortality Small areas Bayesian models Data quality Small-area mortality estimation is a challenge for demographers and public health researchers for two main reasons. First, there is the...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
...Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Peter W. F. Smith; Jakub Bijak; James Raymer; Jonathan J. Forster Abstract In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (5): 1627–1650.
Published: 10 September 2015
... appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model Markov chain Monte Carlo World population prospects There is a clear demand for migration...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
...Adrian E. Raftery; Jennifer L. Chunn; Patrick Gerland; Hana Ševčíková Abstract We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (3): 1171–1192.
Published: 09 June 2020
... problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1933–1954.
Published: 15 August 2014
... mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (4): 1053–1077.
Published: 01 November 2010
... Processes (pp. 256 – 72 ). Oxford, England : Blackwell . Preston S.H. , Heuveline P. , & Guillot M. ( 2000 ). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Social Processes . Oxford, UK : Blackwell . Rubin D.B. ( 1981 ). The Bayesian Bootstrap . Annals of Statistics , 9...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (6): 1995–2019.
Published: 20 October 2015
... based on small absolute counts. Bayesian MCMC estimation of a log-normal Poisson model allows the calculation of the variance estimates of the degree of segregation in a single overall model, and credible intervals are obtained to provide a measure of uncertainty around those estimates. The procedure...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 65–83.
Published: 01 February 2009
... Woman Bayesian Estimation Mean Square Deviation Constraint Model Unconstrained Model References Assuncao M.T. , Schmertmann C.P. , Potter J.E. , & Cavenaghi S.M. ( 2005 ). “Empirical Bayes Estimation of Demographic Schedules for Small Areas.” . Demography , 42...
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Published: 25 April 2014
Fig. 6 Mean Bayesian posterior estimates of practical range ( ) from multilevel spatial models More
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Published: 25 April 2014
Fig. 6 Mean Bayesian posterior estimates of practical range ( ) from multilevel spatial models More
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Published: 25 April 2014
Fig. 5 Mean Bayesian posterior estimates of nonspatial (σ u ) and spatial (σ s ) random effects from multilevel spatial models More
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Published: 09 May 2014
Fig. 2 Bayesian information criterion (BIC) statistic compared with the saturated models for different log-linear models fit to Brazilian marriage data. Lower values indicate superior fit. Black bars indicate the case where browns and blacks are collapsed into a single category. Gray bars More
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (4): 1259–1283.
Published: 10 October 2012
... DisMod II . Population Health Metrics , 1 ( 1 ), 4 . 10.1186/1478-7954-1-4 Boshuizen H. C. , & van Baal P. H. ( 2009 ). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Be a Bayesian . Value in Health , 12 ( 8 ), 1210 – 1214 . 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2009.00590.x Briggs A...
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (4): 1253–1259.
Published: 15 June 2016
... temporal effects in her DGP, the resulting data structure is not appropriate for fitting a full APC model because no substantive variation is observed in Y beyond age and period. Indeed, when comparing the Bayesian information criteria (BIC) from two-factor models—age-period (AP) and age-cohort (AC)—with...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
...Leontine Alkema; Adrian E. Raftery; Patrick Gerland; Samuel J. Clark; François Pelletier; Thomas Buettner; Gerhard K. Heilig Abstract We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (1): 221–241.
Published: 28 January 2020
... collection of detailed birth records, and estimate TFR for the United States conditional on race and household income. 11 11 2019 28 01 2020 © Population Association of America 2020 2020 Indirect estimation Total fertility Bayesian models Fertility is the primary engine of...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (5): 1377–1398.
Published: 13 September 2016
... temporary stressful situation allows couples more quickly to discern the quality of their relationship, in some cases leading them to divorce sooner than they otherwise would have. We formalize this argument in a model of Bayesian updating and test it using data from Denmark. We find that the incidence of...