Skip Nav Destination
Close Modal
1-20 of 165 Search Results for
Bayesian methods
Follow your search
Access your saved searches in your account
Would you like to receive an alert when new items match your search?
1
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (4): 1053–1077.
Published: 01 November 2010
... SUBPOPULATIONS FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA: A BAYESIAN EXTENSION OF SULLIVAN S METHOD* SCOTT M. LYNCH AND J. SCOTT BROWN Multistate life table methods are often used to estimate the proportion of remaining life that indi- viduals can expect to spend in various states, such as healthy and unhealthy states. Sullivan...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
... of Bayesian models for population forecasting were practically non-existent until the past few years, with the notable exception of Daponte et al. ( 1997 ). Recent advances in fast computation and numerical methods have enabled a more widespread use of the Bayesian approach in many fields of application...
FIGURES
| View All (8)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 915–937.
Published: 01 June 2023
.... We propose a Bayesian method for producing subnational population projections, including migration and accounting for college populations, by building on but modifying the UN approach. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the counties of Washington State and comparing the results with extant...
FIGURES
| View All (7)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 65–83.
Published: 01 February 2009
... , 537 – 58 . 10.1353/dem.2005.0022 “Current Population Survey: Design and Methodology.” . ( 2002 ). Washington, DC. : Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau . Carlin B.P. , & Louis T.A. ( 2000 ). Bayesian and Empirical Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis . 2nd...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (5): 1713–1737.
Published: 01 October 2022
.... Copyright © 2022 The Authors 2022 This is an open access article distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Population projection Bayesian methods Subnational Cohort component models Women of reproductive age Reliable estimates of demographic and health...
FIGURES
| View All (6)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
... future life expectancy. Girosi and King ( 2008 ) proposed a Bayesian method based on smoothing age-specific mortality rates over age and time. They argued that this would outperform other methods when informative covariates are observed. They applied their method to all-cause mortality for males...
FIGURES
| View All (8)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 439–462.
Published: 01 April 2024
... heterogeneity. Information is pooled across neighboring regions and smoothed over time and age. To make predictions more robust and address the issue of model selection, a Bayesian version of stacking is considered using leave-future-out validation. I apply this method to forecast mortality rates for 96 regions...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1933–1954.
Published: 15 August 2014
... functional principal components models of simple functions of the rates. Booth et al. ( 2006 ) and Shang et al. ( 2011 ) discussed interesting comparisons and evaluations of some of these methods for mortality forecasting. Also, Bayesian hierarchical time series models have been proposed to derive fertility...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2025–2041.
Published: 10 October 2017
... a novel method to estimate mortality rates by age and sex at the subnational level. In our approach, we built on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, pooling information across geographic space and smoothing over time within the framework of a Bayesian hierarchical model. When tested against...
FIGURES
| View All (10)
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (3): 537–558.
Published: 01 August 2005
... Empirical Bayes Methods for Comparing Multiple Groups Using Replicated Gene Expression Profiles . Statistics in Medicine , 22 , 3899 – 3914 . 10.1002/sim.1548 Kim , H. , Sun , D. , & Tsutakawa , R.K. ( 2001 ). A Bivariate Bayesian Method for Improving Estimators of Mortality...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... scenarios of plus or minus half a child. The UN projects a recovery of TFR toward 1.85, while our method projects movement toward 2.1. However, the average recovery projected by our model is so slow that the UN medium projection and the Bayesian median projection are essentially the same for 2045–2050 (1.77...
FIGURES
| View All (6)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (1): 99–122.
Published: 01 February 2023
... helping from 1998 to 2018 for a wide range of birth cohorts born between 1909 and 1958. We used multivariate, multilevel models based on Bayesian generalized modeling methods to estimate the probabilities of volunteering and informal helping simultaneously in a single model. Despite having advantages...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (6): 2193–2218.
Published: 01 December 2021
... the terms of a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Migration Facebook Bayesian methods Integrated Model of European Migration European migrants Measuring international migration is challenging ( Bilsborrow et al. 1997 ). The lack of timely and comprehensive data about migrants...
FIGURES
| View All (6)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (4): 1363–1388.
Published: 05 July 2018
... of interest. Although it is not directly related to small-area estimation, a growing literature has examined the use of Bayesian approaches in international demographic forecasting (e.g., Gerland et al. 2014 ; Raftery et al. 2013 ; 2014 ; Ševčíková et al. 2016 ) and in methods for constructing...
FIGURES
| View All (10)
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2053–2073.
Published: 01 August 2013
... ages. Such “shrinkage” behavior of hierarchical Bayesian models provides some protection against model misspecification and, together with other desirable properties of the hierarchical Bayesian approach described previously, explains why it is an improvement on the methods of Hajat et al. ( 2010...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 707–729.
Published: 01 June 2023
... to prevent teen motherhood. Copyright © 2023 The Authors 2023 This is an open access article distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Teenage parenthood Mental health Causal inference Bayesian methods Statistical machine learning Both popular...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (3): 1171–1192.
Published: 09 June 2020
... conditions—also known as the Little Ice Age—seriously hampered economic expansion in the Nordic countries. We developed a novel method for estimating population development by applying latent variable Bayesian time-series models to historical parish registers and using existing population censuses...
FIGURES
| View All (7)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (5): 1627–1650.
Published: 10 September 2015
... appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model Markov chain Monte Carlo World population prospects In this article we propose a method...
FIGURES
| View All (8)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2037–2051.
Published: 01 August 2013
... ) addressed this issue using Bayesian methods to impose smoothness. In practice, however, their projections, which typically also use covariate risk factors, are for medium horizons of a decade or two. We note a third problem: that infant mortality declines more rapidly than at other young ages...
FIGURES
| View All (10)
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
Published: 01 August 2021
..., without interruption, over a period of time. If the trends change, the freeze rate method may be preferable. Using age-specific fertility rates from the HFD countries before 1960 as prior data, the Bayesian forecasting method ( Schmertmann et al. 2014 ) produces a probabilistic forecast that includes...
FIGURES
| View All (7)
Includes: Supplementary data
1
