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Absolute Percentage Error

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Published: 28 January 2020
Fig. 4 Absolute percentage errors (APE) against q 5 values in the HMD and DHS. We compare the performance of the five variants against observed q 5 mortality rates. As q 5 values increase, the APE also increases in the iTFR and xTFR variants. This is corrected in the iTFR More
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (2): 193–201.
Published: 01 May 2000
...David A. Swanson; Jeff Tayman; Charles F. Barr Abstract Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
... over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors. 30 12...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 827–852.
Published: 04 December 2012
..., and population sizes–gender structures at the subnational level in the United States. Comparisons of projections from 1990 to 2000 using this approach with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC show that 68.0 %, 17.0 %, 11.2 %, and 3.8 % of the absolute percentage errors are <3.0...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Image
Published: 04 December 2012
Fig. 3 Percentage distributions of the mean absolute percent errors (APE) of comparisons between the ProFamy projections from 1990 to 2000 (using the data before 1991) and the census observations in 2000, six main indices of households (Fig. 3a) and six main indices of population (Fig. 3b More
Image
Published: 28 January 2020
of algebraic errors for each method ( est – obs ). Panel k plots the distribution of absolute algebraic errors. Panel l plots the distribution of absolute percentage errors. For all variants, estimates are accurate over many scales and times. More
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (4): 1447–1473.
Published: 02 July 2018
... regression coefficients, and their standard errors) with couple data in each of 11 DHS surveys in which the couple weight could be derived. We used two measures of bias: absolute percentage difference from the value estimated with the couple weight and ratio of the absolute difference to the standard error...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 407–413.
Published: 01 August 1983
... counties. These tests provide further evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than previously used techniques. 7 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1983 1983 Housing Unit Absolute Percentage Error Upward Bias Recent Census Group Quarter...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 383–404.
Published: 01 August 1984
... Percentage Error Population Projection Final Demand Absolute Percentage Error Percentage Absolute Difference References Alonso W. ( 1968 ). Predicting Best with Imperfect Data . Journal of the American Institute of Planners , 34 , 248 – 254 . 10.1080/01944366808977813 Report...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 741–757.
Published: 01 November 2003
... of America 2003 2003 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Population Projection Current Population Report Census Count References Alho J.M. ( 1990 ). Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting . International Journal of Forecasting , 6 , 521 – 30 . 10.1016/0169-2070...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (4): 549–557.
Published: 01 November 1978
... technique was measured by the absolute percentage error of the Brass estimate. The main part of the simulation was concerned with the generation of the pro- portion dead among children ever born to women within a five-year age group under various types of mortality decline. These statistics were generated...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 323–339.
Published: 01 August 1980
... in Table 1. The average absolute percentage error pro- vides a measure of the precision of each technique, while the average algebraic percentage error provides a measure of the bias. Table 1 shows overall precision to be quite similar for the FLA-REC, FLA-BP and SZ-BP techniques. All have overall average...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 261–274.
Published: 01 May 1991
... regarding the nature of population forecast errors. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1991 1991 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Forecast Accuracy Base Period Forecast Horizon References Ascher , W. ( 1981 ). The Forecasting Potential...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (4): 697–712.
Published: 01 November 2002
... these estimates using county-level data in four states and found them to be more precise and less biased than estimates based on more commonly used methods. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2002 2002 Housing Unit Mean Absolute Percentage Error Mobile Home Group Quarter Housing...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (1): 221–241.
Published: 28 January 2020
...Fig. 4 Absolute percentage errors (APE) against q 5 values in the HMD and DHS. We compare the performance of the five variants against observed q 5 mortality rates. As q 5 values increase, the APE also increases in the iTFR and xTFR variants. This is corrected in the iTFR...
FIGURES | View All (7)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1996) 33 (4): 523–528.
Published: 01 November 1996
... and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1996 1996 Census Tract Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Average Percentage Error Population Forecast References Costner H. ( 1965...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (2): 235–248.
Published: 01 May 1983
... rates; this procedure is not uncommon. Figure 6 shows the results of compar- ing both of our 1980 state level popula- tion estimates with the early results from the 1980 Census. The first two columns indicate the mean absolute percentage error over all age groups. The two re- maining columns present...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1559–1577.
Published: 05 July 2017
... employ visualization techniques as well as forecast errors to evaluate the forecasting performance of each method. To quantify forecast accuracy in terms of the mean and spread of mortality, we use the absolute percentage error (APE) because it is a relative error that relates the absolute difference...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 373–381.
Published: 01 August 1984
... levels of accuracy were judged relative to the actual enrollments reported for these years. The index of accuracy used is the mean of the absolute percentage error. Following the work of Mandell and Tayman (1982), paired observation T-tests were used to determine whether significant differences exist...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
... are compared graphically in Figure 3, and summary statistics on forecast errors are displayed in Table 2. The forecast errors observed for the mortality probabilities are related to underlying errors in the parameter forecasts. For the male mortality schedule the most serious absolute percentage errors...