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in Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach
> Demography
Published: 04 December 2012
Fig. 3 Percentage distributions of the mean absolute percent errors (APE) of comparisons between the ProFamy projections from 1990 to 2000 (using the data before 1991) and the census observations in 2000, six main indices of households (Fig. 3a) and six main indices of population (Fig. 3b
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Journal Article
Demography (1970) 7 (1): 87–91.
Published: 01 February 1970
... of errors greater than five percent when the dif- ferent means of applying the ratio cor- relation method were used to estimate 1960 county population. Without strati- fication or the use of dummy variables, errors of five percent or more were made in sixteen counties. This drops to twelve when dummy...
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (4): 649–661.
Published: 01 November 1987
...Esther C. Schroeder 12 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1987 1987 Labor Force Unemployment Rate Current Population Survey Labor Force Participation Rate Absolute Percent Error References Irwin , R. ( 1977 ). Guide for Local Area Population...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (3): 369–379.
Published: 01 August 1976
... and increased temporal stability of the intercorrelations are two advantages of using differences rather than ratios. 15 2 2011 © Population Association of America 1976 1976 Population Estimate Vital Rate Absolute Percent Error County Population Symptomatic Data References...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
... Time Series Model American Statistical Association Mean Absolute Percent Error Mortality Probability References Ascher , W. ( 1978 ). Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers . Baltimore, Md. : Johns Hopkins University Press . Bohara , A. K. , Bradley , M...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 341–343.
Published: 01 August 1980
... to the commonly used ratio-correlation method. At that time, I showed that the difference- correlation method produced estimates for Michigan counties which had a smaller average absolute percent error than similar estimates produced by the ra- tio-correlation method (e.g., 4.5 percent versus 4.7 percent), and I...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 323–339.
Published: 01 August 1980
... absolute errors between 10 and 12 percent, which is much lower than 'the 22 percent error produced by the SZ-REC technique. For places with greater than 1,000 population in 1970, however, the FLA-REC technique has greater preci- sion than the others. For these places FLA-REC has an average absolute error...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 135–146.
Published: 01 February 1982
... rigorous com- parison of competing techniques under different "circumstances." It can also help point to sensitivities in population estimation models.? COMPARISON OF RATIO-CORRELATION AND DIFFERENCE-CORRELATION ACCURACY The mean absolute percent errors of the estimate (MAE) and the adjusted R 2s...
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (4): 499–510.
Published: 01 November 2000
... 3,507 1.36 G11 2,618 2,991 2,828 5.45 G12 1,849 2,239 2,053 8.31 Total 51,984 57,857 55,346 4.34 MAPE 4.89 MALPE 3.87 Note: MAPE denotes mean absolute percent error across the 13 grades levels; MALPE denotes mean algebraic percent error across those levels. 508 DEMOGRAPHY, VOLUME 37-NUMBER 4...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (4): 413–427.
Published: 01 November 1980
... -6.696 -6.984 Yakima 128,960 136,455 136,283 5.812 5.679 Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates Table 4.-Summary Indices of Estimation Accuracy 425 Index Model Unmodified Modified Misallocation (1M) Absolute Percent Error Mean s.d. N > 10.00 N < 3.00 1.560 5.068 3.813 5 15 1.493 4.886 3.639...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (4): 537–549.
Published: 01 November 2001
.... Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method. 14 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2001 2001 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percent Error Forecast Horizon...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
... of errors falling inside the limits with the expected number. For each of the seven sets of lO-year projections, absolute forecast errors were ranked and the 90th percentile error (i.e., the absolute percentage error that was larger than exactly 90 percent of all absolute percentage errors) was determined...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 383–404.
Published: 01 August 1984
... and average absolute errors for counties of 5 percent or less, they also note mean absolute percentage errors of over 23 percent for places under 500 population and errors of over 26 percent for places that had grown or declined by more than 10 percent in the past four to six years. Isserman (1977...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 407–413.
Published: 01 August 1983
... technique Standard deviations are given in parentheses. size-of-place categories. Looking at the total sample, the mean absolute errors are 7.2 percent for FLA-REC and 10.4 percent for SZ-REC, with standard devi- ations of 5.3 and 8.7 respectively. The mean algebraic errors are 2.9 percent for FLA-REC...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
... of absolute forecast errors. (This means, e.g., that the computed 80 percent confidence interval covered only about 70 percent of the forecast errors.) Williams and Goodman (1971) then estimated empirical confidence intervals by fitting a parametric error model (a gamma distribution) to the distribution...
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (1): 310–330.
Published: 01 March 1967
... be distressed, in the light of the inadequacies of the available relevant information, by the need to decide whether the enumeration error is between 8 and 10 percent. It is worth noting that the value of this crude "bounding the error" procedure turns es- sentially on the absence of a better alter- native...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (2): 223–233.
Published: 01 May 1978
..., using averaging of simple regression estimates. This tech- nique yields a mean absolute error of only 4.1 percent, with about three-fourths of all estimates being within 5 percent of the census enumeration. The use of the NSMR and stratification by share of the population which is nonwhite yields aver...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (4): 549–557.
Published: 01 November 1978
..., volume 15, number 4, November 1978 obtained. The average absolute percent- age error of this revised estimate is gener- ally less than 3 percent. For example, with the West pattern of mortality, the average percentage errors of the Brass estimates were 7.0 percent for q(2), 14.8 percent for q(3...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (3): 443–453.
Published: 01 August 1972
... percent absolute error = 1 N lactual-estimatel -L: X 100. N 1 actual The latter measure has been the one used by most of those writing on the use of the ratio-correlation method for sub- national population estimation. It should be noted that there is no theoretical rea- son to expect that the ranking...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (2): 259–272.
Published: 01 May 1976
.... In 197 of 342 male populations (58 percent) the West equation yielded the best estimate and in 106 of the remaining cases the net error sustained by choosing the West result over the best estimate was less than .05 years. The West male equa- tion resulted in errors of less than one year in 88 percent...
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