Resumen

Este artículo evalua las estimaciones retrospectivas del numero de nacimientos y tasas de natalidad para los Estados Unidos derivadas de las historias de fertilidad recogidas en un survey representativo de la poblacion nacional conducido en 1965. Más especificamenie, este artículo se centra en la relación entre las variaciones en la calidad de las estadísticas de fertilidad derivadas del survey y la extensión del periodo retrospectivo. Para obtener una medida de la desviación en las estimaciones se compara el número de nacimientos y las iasas de natalidad, por color, edad de la madre, y orden de nacimiento del niño, derivados del survey de 1965 con las mismas medidas basadas en el sistema de registro de nacimientos apropiadamente ajustadas para compensar los nacimientos no registrados. Para obtener una medida de la consistencia de las estimaciones de población ezaminadas, se compara el número de nacimientos y la tasas de natalidad por color, edad de la madre, y orden de nacimiento del niño derivados del survey de 1965 con los datos derivados de un anterior survey de poblaci6n efectuado en 1959.

Summary

This report evaluates the retrospective estimates of the number of births and birth rates for the United States derivedfrom fertility histories reported in a national population survey conducted in 1965. More particularly, this report is concerned with the variation in the quality of fertility statistics derived from the population survey as related to the length of the retrospective period. To obtain a measure of the bias in the population survey estimates, births and birth rates by color, age of mother, and birth order of child derived from the 1965 survey are compared with those based on the birth registration system appropriately adjusted for underregistration. To obtain a measure of the consistency of population survey estimates, births and birth rates by color, age of mother, and birth order of child derived from the 1965 population survey are compared with those derived from an earlier population survey conducted in 1959.

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References

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Mauldin, W. Parker et al (
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Monroe G. Sirken, “Sampling Survey Program of the National Vital Statistics Division,”Proceedings of the 9th National Meeting of the Public Health Conference on Records and Statistics (1962), pp, 39–41, and “Research Uses of Vital Records in Vital Statistics Survey,”The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, Vol. 41 (July, 1963), pp.309–16.
3
This hypothesis is compatible with the findings and analyses of data from demographic surveys in developing countries presented by Ranjan Kumar Bom. See his article, “Recall Lapse in Demographic Studies,”International Population Conference (Vienna, 1959), pp. 50–61.
4
Cohort fertility rates derived from this survey will update and expand cohort fertility rates based on a prior population survey that was conducted by the Bureau of the Census (United States Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 108 (July 12, 1961); and Wilson H. Grabill and Maria Davidson, “Recent Trends in Childspaoing by American Women.” (See below in this issue, pp. 212–225.)
5
Numerators of the 1964–66 rates are being estimated independently from fertility histories collected in a follow-back survey linked to a sample of birth records conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics. (National Center for Health Statistics,Methods and Response Characteristics, National Natality Survey, 1963. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 22, No.3 [PHS Publication No. 1000, September 1966, Washington, D.C.].)
6
United States Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 311 (July 2, 1965) and No. 314.
9
In 1963, “3.1 percent of all white births and 23.6 percent of all nonwhite births were reported as illegitimate” and “the great proportion of illegitimate births was to mothers under 20.”— Anders S. Lunde, “White-Nonwhite Fertility Differentials in the United States,”Health, Education, and Welfare Indicators [September 1965], reprint pp. 11–12.)
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Mauldin, W. Parker et al (
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Ranjan Kumar Som,op. cit. Ranjan Kumar Bom. See his article, “Recall Lapse in Demographic Studies,”International Population Conference (Vienna, 1959), pp. 53–56.
16
D. G. Horvitz, “Problems in Designing Interview Surveys to Measure Population Growth,” American Statistical Association,Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section (1966).
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National Office of Vital Statistics:Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Vol. I (Washington, D.C.: 1954), pp. 108–27.
18
United States Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 147 (January 5, 1966).