Resumen

En enfoque de la investigadión en EU sobre movilidad residencial ha consistido principalmente en una integración de perspectivas demográjicas y psicologicas sociales del mismo tipo del que ha sido usado en el estudio de la fertilidad humana. Este artículo combina datos sobre movilidad retrospectiva y subsecuenteobtenidos por medio de una muestra al azar del area de Los Angeles para demostrar que un plan de movilidad expresado en el pasado, elegida su secuencia de actualización es congruente con subsecuentes cambios de domicilio.

Primero, nosotros hicimos comparaciones de planes de movilidad con un criteria de medida de subsecuente movilidad, manteniendo controles por ciclo de vida-etapas. Segundo, nosotros usamos planes de movilidad, elección, y conducta subsecuente para construir tipologias de “moviles” y “estables” definidos en terminos de anticipación de movilidad, cumplimiento y conducta. Tercero, nosoteros comparamos anteriores mudanzas con planes y elecciones, las cuales son luego constrastadas con movilidad subsecuente. Movilidad anterior, planes, eleccion, y el ciclo de vida de la familia responden por aproximadamente el 80 por ciento de las posibles variaciones en tasa de movilidad para el distrito metropolitano de Los Angeles. Para las definiciones de tiempo y medida utilizadas, la mayor contribución relativa a las tasas de movilidad son hechas por plan y elección, pero las mas notables diferencias de tasas son observadas cuando la experiencia es tomada en cuenta. Experiencia de movilidad lleva a una mayor probabilidad de un plan y eleccion de mudarse, y a una crecienie probabilidad de realizar esas metas.

La analogía con investigaciones de fertilidad sugiere que futuros estudios de movilidad residencial necesitan incorporar conceptos psicologicos sociales con el foco en historia de migración, cadena de Markov, análisis de Cohortes, tablas de expectativas de migración, y técnicas de conexión de población a traves del tiempo. Esas investigacionesvan a indicar con más claridad como la actualización de planes o elecciones lleva a la población en diferentes canales de movilidad o estabilidad.

Summary

The focus of United States residential mobility research on either past or future moves has hindered an integration of demographic and social psychological perspectives of the type that have been used in the study of human fertility. This paper combines retrospective and subsequent mobility data obtained from a Los Angeles area probability sample to demonstrate that a past mobility—choice, plan—actualization sequence is congruent with subsequent moves.

First, comparisons are made of mobility plans and choices with subsequent mobility, controlling for life cycle stages. Second, mobility plan, choice, and subsequent behavior are used to construct a typology of “movers” and “stayers” defined in terms of mobility anticipation, fulfillment, and behavior. Third, past moves are compared with plan and choice, which are then contrasted with subsequent mobility. Past mobility, plan, choice, and the life cycle account for approximately 80 percent of the possible subsequent mobility-rate variation for the Los Angeles metropolis. For the time period and indexes, the greatest relative contributions to subsequent mobility rates are made by plan and choice, but striking rate differences are observed when past behavior is taken into account. Mobility experiences lead to a likelihood of a plan and choice to move, and increase possibilities of realizing these goals.

An analogy with fertility research suggests that future studies of residential mobility need to incorporate social psychological concepts with the current focus on migration histories, Markov chains, cohort analyses, migration expectancy tables, and techniques of linking populations over time. Demographers must extend both their theoretical and statistical apparatus in order fully to account for residence changes. Such research should indicate more clearly how actualizing plans or choices leads populations into different mobility or stability channels.

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