Abstract

Using a nationally representative sample of graduates from the high school class of 2003-2004, I test the warehouse hypothesis, which contends that youth are more likely to leave school and enter the labor force when there are available job opportunities (and vice versa). Using two measures of job opportunities—local unemployment rates and the percentage of local workers employed in jobs that require a bachelor’s degree—I find support for the warehouse hypothesis. In areas where unemployment is low, with ample jobs that do not require a bachelor’s degree, youth have higher odds of entering the labor force. In areas where unemployment is high, with few jobs that require only a high school diploma, youth have higher odds of entering college. The effect of unemployment on enrollment is more pronounced for low-income youth than for high-income youth, with both low- and high-income youth turning to four-year schools rather than two-year schools when job opportunities are limited.

This content is only available as a PDF.

References

Alexander, K.L., Pallas, A.M., & Holupka, S. (
1987
).
Consistency and Change in Educational Strati cation: Recent Trends Regarding Social Background and College Access
. In Robinson, R.V. (Ed.),
Research in Social Strati cation and Mobility
(pp.
161
85
).
Greenwich, CT
:
JAI
.
Beattie, I.R. (
2002
).
Are All lsAdolescent Econometricians’ Created Equal? Racial, Class, and Gender Differences in College Enrollment
.
Sociology of Education
,
75
,
19
43
. 10.2307/3090252
Berkner, L., & Choy, S. (
2008
).
Descriptive Summary of 2003-04 Beginning Postsecondary Students: Three Years Later
.
Washington, DC.
:
National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education
.
Betts, J.R., & McFarland, L.L. (
1995
).
Safe Port in a Storm: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Community College Enrollments
.
Journal of Human Resources
,
30
,
741
65
. 10.2307/146230
Bound, J., & Turner, S. (
2007
).
Cohort Crowding: How Resources Affect Collegiate Attainment
.
Journal of Public Economics
,
91
,
877
99
. 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2006.07.006
Bozick, R. (
2007
).
Making It Through the First Year of College: The Role of Students’ Economic Resources, Employment, and Living Arrangements
.
Sociology of Education
,
80
,
261
85
. 10.1177/003804070708000304
Bozick, R., K.L. Alexander, D.R. Entwisle, S.L. Dauber, and K.A. Kerr. Forthcoming. “Framing the Future: Revisiting the Place of Educational Expectations in Status Attainment.” Social Forces.
Bozick, R., & Lauff, E. (
2007
).
Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002): A First Look at the Initial Postsecondary Experiences of the Sophomore Class of 2002
.
Washington, DC.
:
National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education
.
Bradburn, E.M., Hurst, D.G., & Peng, S. (
2001
).
Community College Transfer Rates to 4-Year Institutions Using Alternative Definitions of Transfer
.
Washington, DC.
:
National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education
.
Occupational Projections and Training Data
. (
2006
).
Washington, DC.
:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
.
Burton, L.M., Price-Spratlen, T., & Spencer, M.B. (
1997
).
On Ways of Thinking About Measuring Neighborhoods: Implications for the Study of Context and Developmental Outcomes for Children
. In Brooks-Gunn, J., Duncan, G.J., & Aber, J.L. (Eds.),
Neighborhood Poverty: Context and Consequences for Children
(pp.
132
44
).
New York
:
Russell Sage Foundation
.
Cohen, M., & Besharov, D.J. (
2004
).
The Important Role of Career and Technical Education: Implications for Federal Policy
.
College Park, MD
:
Welfare Reform Academy, University of Maryland
.
Trends in College Pricing
. (
2006
).
Washington, DC.
:
College Board
.
Dougherty, K. (
1994
).
The Contradictory College
.
Albany, NY
:
State University of New York Press
.
Entwisle, D., Alexander, K.L., & Olson, L.S. (
1997
).
Children, Schools, and Inequality
.
Boulder, CO
:
Westview Press
.
Fuller, B. (
1983
).
Youth Job Structure and School Enrollment, 1890–1920
.
Sociology of Education
,
56
,
145
56
. 10.2307/2112383
Fussell, E., & Furstenberg, F.F. (
2005
).
The Transition to Adulthood During the Twentieth Century: Race, Nativity, and Gender
. In Settersten, R.A., Furstenberg, F.F., & Rumbaut, R.G. (Eds.),
On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy
(pp.
29
75
).
Chicago
:
University of Chicago Press
.
Graber, J.A., & Brooks-Gunn, J. (
1996
).
Transitions and Turning Points: Navigating the Passage From Childhood Through Adolescence
.
Developmental Psychology
,
32
,
768
76
. 10.1037/0012-1649.32.4.768
Grubb, W.N., & Lazerson, M. (
1982
).
Education and the Labor Market: Recycling the Youth Problem
. In Kantor, H., & Tyack, D. (Eds.),
Work, Youth, and Schooling: Historical Perspectives on Vocational Education
(pp.
110
41
).
Stanford, CA
:
Stanford University Press
.
Gustman, A.L., & Steinmeier, T.L. (
1981
).
The Impact of Wages and Unemployment on Youth Enrollment and Labor Supply
.
Review of Economics and Statistics
,
63
,
553
60
. 10.2307/1935851
Hausman, J., & McFadden, D. (
1984
).
Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model
.
Econometrica
,
52
,
1219
40
. 10.2307/1910997
Iceland, J. (
2003
).
Poverty in America
.
Berkeley, CA
:
University of California Press
.
Krolik, T.J. (
2004
).
Educational Attainment of the Labor Force and Jobless Rates, 2003
.
Monthly Labor Review
,
127
,
57
59
.
Mayer, K.U. (
2004
).
Whose Lives? How History, Societies and Institutions Define and Shape Life Courses
.
Research in Human Development
,
1
,
161
87
. 10.1207/s15427617rhd0103_3
Merrilees, W.J. (
1981
).
The Effect of Labour Market Conditions on School Enrollment Rates
.
Australian Economic Review
,
55
,
56
60
. 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1981.tb00432.x
Perna, L.W. (
2000
).
Differences in the Decision to Enroll in College Among African Americans, Hispanics, and Whites
.
Journal of Higher Education
,
71
,
117
41
. 10.2307/2649245
Petrongolo, B., & San Segundo, M.J. (
2002
).
Staying-on at School at 16: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions in Spain
.
Economics of Education Review
,
21
,
353
65
. 10.1016/S0272-7757(01)00019-X
Phillipe, K., & Patton, M. (
2001
).
National Profile of Community Colleges: Trends and Statistics
. 3rd ed.
Washington, DC
:
Community College Press, American Association of Community Colleges
.
Phipps, R.A. (
2004
).
How Does Technology Affect Access in Postsecondary Education? What Do We Really Know?
.
Washington, DC.
:
National Postsecondary Education Cooperative Working Group on Access-Technology
.
Riphahn, R.T. (
2002
).
Residential Location and Youth Unemployment: The Economic Geography of School-to-Work Transitions
.
Journal of Population Economics
,
15
,
115
35
. 10.1007/PL00003835
Rivkin, S.G. (
1995
).
Black/White Differences in Schooling and Employment
.
Journal of Human Resources
,
30
,
826
52
. 10.2307/146234
Rouse, C.E. (
1994
).
What to Do After High School: The Two-Year Versus Four-Year College Enrollment Decision
. In Ehrenberg, R.G. (Ed.),
Choices and Consequences: Contemporary Policy Issues in Higher Education
(pp.
59
85
).
Ithaca, NY
:
ILR Press
.
Schachter, J.P. (
2004
).
Geographic Mobility: 2002 to 2003
.
Washington, DC.
:
U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
.
Schoenhals, M., Tienda, M., & Schneider, B. (
1998
).
The Educational and Personal Consequences of Adolescent Employment
.
Social Forces
,
77
,
723
62
. 10.2307/3005545
Shanahan, M.J., Miech, R.A., & Elder, G.H. (
1998
).
Changing Pathways to Attainment in Men’s Lives: Historical Patterns of School, Work, and Social Class
.
Social Forces
,
77
,
231
56
. 10.2307/3006016
Stata Statistical Software: Release 9.0 User’s Guide
. (
2005
).
College Station, TX
:
Stata Corporation
.
Steelman, L.C., & Powell, B. (
1989
).
Acquiring Capital for College: The Constraints of Family Configuration
.
American Sociological Review
,
54
,
844
55
. 10.2307/2117758
Steelman, L.C. (
1991
).
Sponsoring the Next Generation: Parental Willingness to Pay for Higher Education
.
American Journal of Sociology
,
96
,
1505
29
. 10.1086/229695
Tinto, V. (
1993
).
Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition
.
Chicago
:
The University of Chicago Press
.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2006. Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
The Condition of Education 2007
. (
2007
).
Washington, DC
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Walters, P.B. (
1984
).
Occupational and Labor Market Effects on Secondary and Post-Secondary Educational Expansion in the United States: 1922 to 1979
.
American Sociological Review
,
49
,
659
71
. 10.2307/2095423
Walters, P.B. (
1986
).
Sex and Institutional Differences in Labor Market Effects on the Expansion of Higher Education, 1952–1980
.
Sociology of Education
,
59
,
199
211
. 10.2307/2112347
Walters, P.B., & O’Connell, P.J. (
1988
).
The Family Economy, Work, and Educational Participation in the United States, 1890–1940
.
American Journal of Sociology
,
93
,
1116
52
. 10.1086/228866