Abstract
In this article, we examine the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using prospective longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring to nearly 8,000 Bangladeshi mothers observed over the 1982–1993 period, a time of rapid fertility decline. Generalized hazard-regression analyses are employed to assess the effect of infant and child mortality on the hazard of conception, with controls for birth order and maternal age and educational attainment. Results show that childhood mortality reduces the time to subsequent conception if the death occurs within a given interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. The time to conception is also reduced if a childhood death occurs during a prior birth interval, a finding that signifies an effect of volitional replacement of the child that died. Moreover, mortality effects in prior birth intervals are consistent with hypothesized insurance (or hoarding) effects. Interaction of replacement with elapsed time suggests that the volitional impact of child mortality increases as the demographic transition progresses. This volitional effect interacts with sex of index child. Investigation of higher-order interactions suggests that this gender-replacement effect has not changed over time.
References
Amin, S., & Basu, A.M. (
2004
). Popular Perceptions of Emerging Influences on Mortality and Longevity in Bangladesh and West Bengal
. New York
: Population Council
.Bhat, P.N. Mari (
1998
). Micro and Macro Effects of Child Mortality on Fertility: The Case of India
. In Montgomery, M.R., & Cohen, B. (Eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change
(pp. 339
–83
). Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.Cain, M. (
1983
). Fertility as an Adjustment to Risk
. Population and Development Review
, 9
, 688
–702
. 10.2307/1973546Casterline, J.B. (
1999
). The Onset of Pace of Fertility Transition: National Patterns in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century
. New York
: Population Council
.Casterline, J.B. (
2001
). The Pace of Fertility Transition: National Patterns in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century
. Population and Development Review
, 27
, 17
–52
.Chen, L.C., Ahmed, S., Geshe, M., & Mosley, W.H. (
1974
). A Prospective Study of Birth Interval Dynamics in Rural Bangladesh
. Population Studies
, 28
, 277
–97
. 10.2307/2173959Chen, L.C., Huq, E., & D’Souza, S. (
1981
). Sex Bias in the Family Allocation of Food and Health Care in Rural Bangladesh
. Population and Development Review
, 7
, 55
–70
. 10.2307/1972764Chesnais, J.-C. (
1992
). The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns and Economic Implications
. Oxford, England
: Clarendon Press
.Chowdhury, A.K.M.A., Khan, A.R., & Chen, L.C. (
1976
). The Effect of Child Mortality Experience on Subsequent Fertility: In Pakistan and Bangladesh
. Population Studies
, 30
, 249
–61
. 10.2307/2173608Clark, S. 1996. “Child Survival as a Determinant of Contraceptive Continuation in Two Areas of Rural Bangladesh.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health.
Cleland, J. (
2001
). The Effects of Improved Survival on Fertility: A Reassessment
. In Bulatao, R.A., & Casterline, J.B. (Eds.), Global Fertility Transition
(pp. 60
–92
). New York
: The Population Council
.Cleland, J., Phillips, J.F., Amin, S., & Kamal, G.M. (
1994
). The Determinants of Reproductive Change in Bangladesh: Success in a Challenging Environment
. Washington, DC
: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
.Davis, K. (
1963
). The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History
. Population Index
, 29
, 345
–66
. 10.2307/2732014D’Souza, S., & Chen, L.C. (
1980
). Sex Differentials in Mortality in Rural Bangladesh
. Population and Development Review
, 6
, 257
–70
. 10.2307/1972730Freed, R.S., & Freed, S.A. (
1989
). Beliefs and Practices Resulting in Female Deaths and Fewer Females Than Males in India
. Population and Environment
, 10
, 144
–61
. 10.1007/BF01257901Freedman, R. (
1963
). Norms for Family Size in Underdeveloped Areas
. Proceedings of the Royal Society B
, 159
, 220
–45
. 10.1098/rspb.1963.0074Grummer-Strawn, L.M., Stupp, P.W., & Mei, Z. (
1998
). Effect of a Child’s Death on Birth Spacing: A Cross-National Analysis
. In Montgomery, M.R., & Cohen, B. (Eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change
(pp. 39
–73
). Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.Gutierrez, R.G. (
2002
). Parametric Frailty and Shared Frailty Survival Models
. The Stata Journal
, 2
, 22
–44
.Hill, K., M. Mahy, and T. LeGrand. 2001. “Mortality, Fertility, and Reproductive Behavior in Senegal and Zimbabwe.” Paper presented at the International Population Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Salvador, Brazil, August 18–24.
Huffman, S.L., Chowdhury, A., Chakraborty, J., & Simpson, N.K. (
1980
). Breast-feeding Patterns in Rural Bangladesh
. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
, 33
, 144
–54
.Huffman, S.L., Ford, K., Allen, H.A., & Streble, P. (
1987
). Nutrition and Fertility in Bangladesh: Breastfeeding and Postpartum Amenorrhoea
. Population Studies
, 41
, 447
–62
. 10.1080/0032472031000142996Knodel, J.E. (
1978
). European Populations in the Past: Family Level Relations
. In Preston, S.H. (Ed.), The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility
(pp. 21
–46
). New York
: Academic Press
.LeGrand, T.K., & Barbieri, M. (
2002
). The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women’s Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa
. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie
, 18
, 361
–86
.LeGrand, T.K., Koppenhaver, T., Mondain, N., & Randall, S. (
2003
). Reassessing the Insurance Effect: A Qualitative Analysis of Fertility Behavior in Senegal and Zimbabwe
. Population and Development Review
, 29
, 375
–403
. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00375.xLeGrand, T.K., & Sandberg, J. (
2006
). Effects of Child Mortality on Fertility: Theoretical Complexities and Measurement Dif culties
. In Loriaux, M., & Vilquin, E. (Eds.), Entre nature et culture: quelle(s) démographie(s)? Chaire Quetelet 2002
(pp. 181
–205
). Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
: Academia-Bruylant
.Lloyd, C.B., & Ivanov, S. (
1988
). The Effects of Improved Child Survival on Family Planning Practice and Fertility
. Studies in Family Planning
, 19
(3
), 141
–61
. 10.2307/1966750Majumder, A.K., May, M., & Dev Pant, P. (
1997
). Infant and Child Mortality Determinants in Bangladesh: Are They Changing?
. Journal of Biosocial Science
, 29
, 385
–99
. 10.1017/S0021932097003854Mensch, B.S. (
1985
). The Effect of Child Mortality on Contraceptive Use and Fertility in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Korea
. Population Studies
, 39
, 309
–27
. 10.1080/0032472031000141506Montgomery, M.R., & Cohen, B. (
1998
). Introduction
. In Montgomery, M.R., & Cohen, B. (Eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change
(pp. 1
–38
). Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.Mozumder, A.B.M., Alam, K., Koenig, M.A., Phillips, J.F., & Murad, S. (
1991
). The Sample Registration System: An Innovative System for Monitoring Demographic Dynamics
. Asia-Pacific Population Journal
, 5
(3
), 63
–70
.Muhuri, P.K. (
1996
). Estimating Seasonality Effects on Child Mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh
. Demography
, 33
, 98
–110
. 10.2307/2061716Murthi, M., Guio, A.-C., & Drèze, J. (
1995
). Mortality, Fertility, and Gender Bias in India: A District-Level Analysis
. Population and Development Review
, 21
, 745
–82
. 10.2307/2137773Notestein, F.W. (
1945
). Population—The Long View
. In Schultz, T.W. (Ed.), Food for the World
(pp. 36
–57
). Chicago
: University of Chicago Press
.Park, C.B., Islam, M.A., Chakraborty, N., & Kantner, A. (
1998
). Partitioning the Effect of Infant and Child Death on Subsequent Fertility: An Exploration in Bangladesh
. Population Studies
, 52
, 345
–46
. 10.1080/0032472031000150516Preston, S.H. (
1978
). Introduction
. In Preston, S.H. (Ed.), The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility
(pp. 1
–18
). New York
: Academic Press
.Rahman, M. (
1998
). The Effect of Child Mortality on Fertility Regulation in Rural Bangladesh
. Studies in Family Planning
, 29
, 268
–81
. 10.2307/172273Rahman, M., Akbar, J., Phillips, J.F., & Becker, S. (
1992
). Contraceptive Use in Matlab, Bangladesh: The Role of Gender Preference
. Studies in Family Planning
, 23
, 229
–42
. 10.2307/1966885Rahman, M., & DaVanzo, J. (
1993
). Gender Preference and Birth Spacing in Matlab, Bangladesh
. Demography
, 30
, 315
–32
. 10.2307/2061643Randall, S., & LeGrand, T.K. (
2003
). Reproductive Strategies and Decisions in Senegal: The Role of Child Mortality
. Population
, 58
, 687
–716
.Scrimshaw, S.C. (
1978
). Infant Mortality and Behavior in the Regulation of Family Size
. Population and Development Review
, 4
, 383
–403
. 10.2307/1972856Survival Analysis and Epidemiological Tables. Reference Manual, Release 9
. (2005
). College Station, TX
: StataCorp LP
.Taylor, C.E., Newman, J.S., & Kelly, N.U. (
1976
). The Child Survival Hypothesis
. Population Studies
, 30
, 263
–78
. 10.2307/2173609Wolpin, K.I. (
1998
). The Impact of Infant and Child Mortality Risk on Fertility
. In Montgomery, M.R., & Cohen, B. (Eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change
(pp. 74
–111
). Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.© Population Association of America 2007
2007
Issue Section:
Articles
