Abstract

Political and sociocultural events (e.g., Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and the German reunification in 1989) and natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Hugo in 1989) can affect fertility. In our research, we addressed the question of whether the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995, a man-made disaster, influenced fertility patterns in Oklahoma. We defined three theoretical orientations—replacement theory, community influence theory, and terror management theory—that motivate a general expectation of birth increases, with different predictions emerging from time and geographic considerations. We used two different empirical methodologies. First, we fitted dummy-variable regression models to monthly birth data from 1990 to 1999 in metropolitan counties. We used birth counts to frame the problem and general fertility rates to address the problem formally. These analyses were organized within two design structures: a control-group interrupted time-series design and a difference-in-differences design. In these analyses, Oklahoma County showed an interpretable, consistent, and significant increase in births. Second, we used graphical smoothing models to display these effects visually. In combination, these methods provide compelling support for a fertility response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Certain parts of each theory helped us organize and understand the pattern of results.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

“Baby Miniboom Following New York Terrorist Attack.” May 27, 2002. New York Daily News, p. 2B. “Baylee Almon’s Mom Expecting Another Child.” April 5, 2000. Daily Oklahoman, p. 4A.
Becker, G.S. (
1960
).
An Economic Analysis of Fertility
Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries
(pp.
209
31
).
Princeton, NJ
:
Princeton University Press
.
Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (
2004
).
How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?
.
Quarterly Journal of Economics
,
119
,
249
75
. 10.1162/003355304772839588
Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (
1998
).
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
.
Population and Development Review
,
24
,
271
92
. 10.2307/2807974
Brunvand, J.H. (
1993
).
The Baby Train and Other Lusty Urban Legends
.
New York
:
W.W. Norton
.
Cohan, S.L., & Cole, S.W. (
2002
).
Life Course Transitions and Natural Disasters: Marriage, Birth, and Divorce Following Hurricane Hugo
.
Journal of Family Psychology
,
16
,
14
25
. 10.1037/0893-3200.16.1.14
Conrad, C., Lechner, M., & Werner, W. (
1996
).
East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?
.
Population and Development Review
,
22
,
331
58
. 10.2307/2137438
Cook, T.D., & Campbell, D.T. (
1979
).
Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings
.
Boston
:
Houghton-Mifflin
.
Cromwell, J.B., Labys, W.C., & Terraza, M. (
1994
).
Univariate Tests for Time Series Models
.
Thousand Oaks, CA
:
Sage
.
Davis, K. (
1963
).
The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History
.
Population Index
,
29
,
345
66
. 10.2307/2732014
Easterlin, R.A. (
1978
).
The Economics and Sociology of Fertility: A Synthesis
. In C. Tilly (Ed.),
Historical Studies of Changing Fertility
(pp.
57
133
).
Princeton, NJ
:
Princeton University Press
.
Garrison, D. September 15, 2003. “September Poem.” New Yorker, pp. 68–69.
Heckman, J., Ichimura, H., Smith, J., & Todd, P. (
1998
).
Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data
.
Econometrica
,
66
,
1017
98
. 10.2307/2999630
Hirschman, C. (
1994
).
Why Fertility Changes
.
Annual Review of Sociology
,
20
,
203
33
. 10.1146/annurev.so.20.080194.001223
Knodel, J., & van de Walle, E. (
1979
).
Lessons From the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility Studies
.
Population and Development Review
,
5
,
217
45
. 10.2307/1971824
Lam, D.A., & Miron, J. (
1996
).
The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility
.
Demography
,
33
,
291
306
. 10.2307/2061762
Lechner, M. (
2001
).
The Empirical Analysis of East German Fertility After Unification: An Update
.
European Journal of Population
,
17
,
61
74
.
Lesthaeghe, R. (
1983
).
A Century of Demographic Change in Western Europe: An Exploration of Underlying Dimensions
.
Population and Development Review
,
9
,
411
36
. 10.2307/1973316
Nakonezny, P., Rodgers, J.L., & Reddick, P. (
2004
).
Did Divorces Decline After the Oklahoma City Bombing?
.
Journal of Marriage and the Family
,
66
,
90
100
. 10.1111/j.1741-3737.2004.00007.x
“No Sign of Post-September 11 Baby Boom.” July 22, 2002. MSNBC Online.
Notestein, F. (
1945
).
Population—The Long View
. In T.W. Schultz (Ed.),
Food for the World
(pp.
36
57
).
Chicago
:
University of Chicago Press
.
Ostram, C.W. (
1978
).
Time Series Analysis: Regression Techniques
.
Thousand Oaks, CA
:
Sage
.
Rindfuss, R.R., Reed, J.S., & John, C. St. (
1978
).
A Fertility Reaction to a Historical Event: Southern White Birthrates and the 1954 Desegregation Ruling
.
Science
,
201
,
178
80
. 10.1126/science.351806
Rodgers, J.L., & Udry, J.R. (
1988
).
The Season-of-Birth Paradox
.
Social Biology
,
35
,
171
85
.
Seiver, D.A. (
1985
).
Trend and Variation in the Seasonality of U.S. Fertility
.
Demography
,
22
,
89
100
. 10.2307/2060988
Serrano, R. July 10, 1999. “Murrah Bomb’s Toll.” Oklahoma Observer, p. 1.
Shadish, W.R., Cook, T.D., & Campbell, D.T. (
2002
).
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference
.
Boston
:
Houghton-Mifflin
.
Solomon, S., Greenberg, J., & Pyszczynski, T. (
2000
).
Pride and Prejudice: Fear of Death and Social Behavior
.
Current Directions in Psychological Research
,
9
,
200
204
. 10.1111/1467-8721.00094
Udry, J.R. (
1970
).
The Effect of the Great Blackout of 1965 on Births in New York City
.
Demography
,
7
,
325
27
. 10.2307/2060151