Abstract
This article reports levels, trends, and age patterns of adult mortality in 23 sub-Saharan Africa countries, based on the sibling histories and orphanhood data collected by the countries’ Demographic and Health Surveys. Adult mortality has risen sharply since HIV became prevalent, but the size and speed of the mortality increase varies greatly among countries. Excess mortality is concentrated among women aged 25–39 and among men aged 30–44. These data suggest that the increase in the number of men who die each year has exceeded somewhat the increase for women. It is time for a systematic attempt to reconcile the demographic and epidemiological evidence concerning AIDS in Africa.
Adult Mortality, Model Life Table, United Nations Joint Programme, Paternal Orphanhood, National Population Commission
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
Brass, W. (
1975
). Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality From Limited and Defective Data
. Chapel Hill, NC
: International Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics
.Coale, A.J., Demeny, P., & Vaughan, B. (
1983
). Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations
. London
: Academic Press
.Dorrington, R., Bourne, D., Bradshaw, D., Laubscher, R., & Timæus, I.M. (
2001
). The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in South Africa
. Tygerberg
: South African Medical Research Council
.Feeney, G. (
2001
). The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in Zimbabwe
. Population and Development Review
, 27
, 771
–80
. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00771.xGarenne, M., Madison, M., Tarantola, D., Zanou, B., Aka, J., & Dogore, R. (
1996
). Mortality Impact of AIDS in Abidjan, 1986–1992
. AIDS
, 10
, 1279
–86
. 10.1097/00002030-199609000-00015Grassly, N.C. and I.M. Timæus. 2003. “Methods to Estimate the Number of Orphans Due to AIDS and Other Causes in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Manuscript submitted for publication.
Gregson, S., & Garnett, G.P. (
2000
). Contrasting Gender Differentials in HIV-1 Prevalence and Associated Mortality Increase in Eastern and Southern Africa: Artefact of Data or Natural Course of Epidemics
. AIDS
, 14
(Suppl. 3
), S85
–S99
.Heuveline, P. (
2003
). HIV and Population Dynamics: A General Model and Maximum Likelihood Standards for Africa
. Demography
, 40
, 217
–45
. 10.1353/dem.2003.0013Hill, K. (
1987
). Estimating Census and Death Registration Completeness
. Asian and Pacific Population Forum
, 1
(3
), 8
–13
.Population and Health in Developing Countries. Volume 1: Population, Health and Survival at INDEPTH Sites
. (2002
). Ottawa
: International Development Research Centre
.Lopez, A.D., Ahmad, O., Guillot, M., Ferguson, B.D., Salomon, J.A., Murray, C.J.L., & Hill, K.H. (
2002
). World Mortality in 2000: Life Tables for 191 Countries
. Geneva
: World Health Organization
.Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 1999
. (2000
). Calverton, MD
: National Population Commission and ORC/Macro
.Notkola, V., Timæus, I.M., & Siiskonen, H. (
2004
). Impact on Mortality of the AIDS Epidemic in Northern Namibia Assessed Using Parish Registers
. AIDS
, 18
, 1061
–65
. 10.1097/00002030-200404300-00015Pison, G., Hill, K.H., Cohen, B., & Foote, K.A. (
1995
). Population Dynamics of Senegal
. Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.Preston, S.H., Coale, A.J., Trussell, J., & Weinstein, M. (
1980
). Estimating the Completeness of Reporting of Adult Deaths in Populations That Are Approximately Stable
. Population Index
, 46
, 179
–202
. 10.2307/2736122Rutenberg, N. and J.M. Sullivan. 1991. “Direct and Indirect Estimates of Maternal Mortality From the Sisterhood Method.” Paper presented at the Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5–7, Washington, DC.
Stanecki, K.A. (
2004
). The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century
. Washington, DC
: U.S. Census Bureau
.Stanton, C., Abderrahim, N., & Hill, K. (
1997
). DHS Maternal Mortality Indicators: An Assessment of Data Quality and Implications for Data Use
. Calverton, MD
: Macro International
.Timæus, I.M. (
1992
). Estimation of Adult Mortality From Paternal Orphanhood: A Reassessment and a New Approach
. Population Bulletin of the United Nations
, 33
, 47
–63
.Timæus, I.M. (
1993
). Adult Mortality
. In Foote, K.A., Hill, K.H., & Martin, L.G. (Eds.), Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa
(pp. 218
–55
). Washington, DC
: National Academy Press
.Timæus, I.M. (
1998
). Impact of the HIV Epidemic on Mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From National Surveys and Censuses
. AIDS
, 12
(Suppl 1
), S15
–S27
.Timæus, I.M. (
1999
). Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa
. In Chamie, J., & Cliquet, R.L. (Eds.), Health and Mortality: Issues of lobal Concern
(pp. 110
–31
). New York and Brussels
: Population Division, United Nations, and Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS)
.Timæus, I.M., R. Dorrington, D. Bradshaw, N. Nannan, and D. Bourne. 2001. “Adult Mortality in South Africa, 1980–2000: From Apartheid to AIDS.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, March 29–31, Washington, DC.
Timæus, I.M., & Nunn, A.J. (
1997
). Measurement of Adult Mortality in Populations Affected by AIDS: An Assessment of the Orphanhood Method
. Health Transition Review
, 7
(Suppl 2
), 23
–43
.UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates Modelling and Projections
(2002
). Improved Methods and Assumptions for Estimation of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic and Its Impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections
. AIDS
, 16
(9
), W1
–W16
. 10.1097/00002030-200206140-00024World Population Prospects the 2000 Revision: Volume 3. Analytical Report
. (2002
). New York
: United Nations
.Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, July 2002
. (2002
). Geneva
: UNAIDS
.© Population Association of America 2004
2004
