Resumen

El objeto principalde esie trabajo es el desarrollo y prueba de un métoda paraestimar las muertes que ocurren durante una decada a cohortes envejecidas de nacimientos y defunciones, de modo, que pueda ser posible, estimar la miqraci/m. neta para cohortes de edad par el metoda de las estadisticas vitales (VS). Hastaahara, dicho metoda haeidoutilizadosolo parahacer estimaciones dela miqración total neta.

Los resultados obtenidos empleando el métoda de las estadísticas vitales para cohortes de edad, muestranque (1) la tasa promedio de sobrevida del censo (CSR), generalmente, produce estimaciones algebraicas de la migracion neta más bajasque las qued dá el métoda de las estadísticas vitales (VS); pero, (2) hay algunas exceptiones que llaman la atención, las cuales, aparentemente, estan asociadas a errores de enumeracón en el censo, por edad, sexo, y color. Se presenta las comparaciones por edad, entre los dos métodos CSR y VS, tanto para Carolina del Norte, cuanto para la poblacón de los Estados Unidos, incluyendo las poblaciones de Alaska, Hawai y otros territorios.

Un examen superficial de esias comparaciones sugiere que el uso exclusivo del métoda de las estadísticas vitales para estimar la migracion neta para cohortes de edad, puede conducir a error Finalmente, se puede estimar con aproximación la magnitud de estos errores, así como los de la enumeración censal, si se acepta queel uso del métoda delCSR produce estimaciones rozonablemenet precisae de la migración neta.

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Summary

The focus of this paper is the development and testing of a method of estimating deaths which occur during a decade to aging birth and death cohorts, so that it may be possible to estimate net migration by the vital statistics (VS) method for age cohorts. Until now the VS method has been used only in making estimates of total net migration.

The results obtained by using the VS method for age cohorts show that (1) the average census survival rate (CSR) method generally yields algebraically lower estimates of net migration than does the VS method; but (2) there are some striking exceptions which are apparently associated with errors in census enumeration by age, sex, and color. Comparisons between the average CSR and the VS methods are shown, by age, for both the North Carolina and the coterminous United States populations.

A cursory examination of these comparisons suggests that the exclusive use of the VS method in estimating net migration for age cohorts may lead to substantial error. Finally, the magnitude of these errors in estimating net migration, as well as in census enumeration, can be roughly approximated if it is assumed that the use of the CSR method yields reasonably accurate estimates of net migration.

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References

1
United States Bureau of the Census, “Estimates of the Population of the United States and Components of Change by Age, Color, and Sex: 1950-1960,” Current Population. Reports, Series P-25, No. 310 (1965); and “National Census Survival Rates, by Color and Sex for 1950 to 1960,” Current Population Reports, Series P-23, No. 15 (1965).
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EVS means “Error Vital Statistics.” This implies that even the VS method contains sources of error.
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