Summary

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.

Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.

The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.

Resumen

El componente inmigración en las estimaciones de población es comparativamente pequeño, pero no insignificante, y puede ser una importante fuente de error. Por lo tanto, merece la consideración de quienes se interesan en estimaciones de población. Este trabajo considera métodos alternatives para derivar estimaciones de migración, a partir de los datos initiales, y presenta estimaciones de la migración neta entre 1950 y 1965. Son desarrolladas a partir de estimaciones publicadas anteriormente por la Oficiana del Censo, pero difieren en algunos puntos, cuando fué posible disponer de nuevos datos a cuando una revision de los datos condujo a un cambio en el raciocinio respecto a su mejor utilización. El trabajo también présenta sugestiones sobre como pueden alterarse las estadísticas de inmigración con propósitus de mejorar las estimaciones.

Los datos del Censo pueden servir para estimar la migración neta, mediante très métodos diferentes, pero sometidos a análisis coda método résulta inadecuado. Asi, los datos basados en las visas recolectadas en los puertos de entrada, deben constituir la fuente principal para las estimaciones de inmigración. Estos datos tienen sus limitaciones porque: (1) no cubren las llegadas netas de ciudadanos del exterior y de Puerto Rico, (2) no informan sobre la salida de extranjeros, y (8) no ubican a todos los inmigrantes en el año de ingreso. Los registros de extranjeros y datos sobre pasajeros ofrecen estimaciones alternativas posibles.

Este trabajo intenta medir la inmigración no registrada, discute como pueden estimarse las llegadas netas de ciudadanos del extranjero y de Puerto Rico, y como pueden tratarse la edad, sexo, y raza de los inmigrantes.

Visa Data, Permanent Residence, Census Count, Resident Alien, Spanish Surname
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References

1
E. P. Hutchinson, Our Statistics of International Migration: Comparability and Completeness for Demographic Use, (report to the Committee on Population Statistics of the Population Association of America, July, 1965). See also E. P. Hutchinson, “Notes on Immigration Statistics of the United States,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. LIII, No. 284 (December, 1958).
2
The paper is an elaboration of procedures already outlined in the following articles of the United States Bureau of the Census: Current Population Reports: Estimates of the Population of the United States and Components of Change, 19Jfi to 1966, Series P-25, No. 331 (March, 1966); Jacob S. Siegel, Donald S. Akers, and Ward D. Jones, Estimates of the Population of the United States and Components of Change: By Age, Color, and Sex, 1950 to 1960, Series P-25, No. 310 (June, 1965); Estimates of the Population of the United States: By Age, Color, and Sex: July 1, 1960 to 1965,” Series P-25, No. 321 (November, 1965).
3
Jacob S. Siegel and Meyer Zitter, “Demographic Aspects of Military Statistics” (paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Statistical Association, Chicago, December, 1958).
4
The Immigration and Naturalization Service releases its statistics primarily through its Annual Report. An additional source is the I and N Reporter, published quarterly. See the article in that journal by Gertrude D. Krichefsky, “International Migration Statistics as Related to the United States,” XIII, Nos. 1 and 2 (July and October, 1954).
5
United States Bureau of the Census, Mobility of the Population of the United States: March, 1963, to March, 1964, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 41 (September, 1965), Table 1.
6
Bureau of the Census, P-25, No. 331 ; Conrad Taeuber and Morris H. Hansen, “A Preliminary Evaluation of the 1960 Censuses of Population and Housing,” Demography, Vol. I, No. 1, 1964.
7
Donald S. Akers and Jacob S. Siegel, National Census Survival Rates, by Color and Sex, for I960 to 1960 (United States Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-23, No. 15, July, 1965).
8
For the application of a survival rate method to historical data, see Simon Kuznets and Ernest Rubin, Immigration and the Foreign Born (Occasional Paper 46 [National Bureau of Economic Research, 1954]).
9
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© Population Association of America 1967
1967