Summary

This paper reports on some of the aspects of implementing the population estimation studies now being carried out—the Population Growth Estimation Study (PGE) in Pakistan, the Survey of Population Change (SPC) in Thailand, and the Demographic Survey in Turkey (TDS). The basic purpose of all these surveys is to provide reliable estimates of population growth rates for various areas within each of the countries.

All the surveys under consideration are single-purpose, continuing, nation-wide studies, using fixed, area samples. The basic methodology of the studies is similar in that they aü utilize the technique of collecting data on births and deaths by two separate systems and then comparing individual events to determine whether events were recorded by both systems or only one. One list is based on periodic enumerations and the other on continuous registration.

Some of the problems encountered in the various phases of the field work required to assemble the two independent lists—such as identification of enumeration units, the de facto approach vs. the de jure approach, assuring completeness of registration, and reconciliation of unmatched cases—are described and the steps taken toward their solution outlined.

The author concludes that the studies are on sound methodological grounds but that their implementation, especially in developing countries, poses additional burdens.

Resumen

Este trabajo informa sobre algunos de los aspectos en la ejecución de estudios de estimación de poblacion que se realizan actualmente. El Estudio de Estimaciôn del Crecimiento Poblacional en Pakistan (PGE), la Encuesta de Cambio Poblacional en Tailandia (SPC), y la Encuesta Demogrâfica en Turquía (TDS). El propósito básico de todas estas encuestas es proporcionar estimaciones de las tasas de crecimineto de poblacion dignas de crédito para diversas areas dentro de coda uno de coda uno de los paises.

Las encuestas que se comentan tienen un solo propósito, continuar los estudios, a nival nacional, utilizando como muestras áreas fijas. La metodología básica de los estudios es similar en cuanto todos usan la técnica de recolección de datos sobre nacimientos y muertes mediante dos sistemas separados y comparando después los hechos individuates para determinar si estos fueron registrados por ambos sistemas o sólo por uno. Una lista se basa en enumeraciones periódicas y la otra en el registro contínua.

Se describe algunos de los problemas encontrados en las diversas fases del trabajo de campo que requirieron un ordenamiento de las dos listas independientes, taies como identificación de las unidades de enumeration, los métodos de jure vs. de facto, asegurar que los registros sean completados y la reconciliación de los casos no confrontados. Se esbozan los pasos para su solución.

El autor concluye que los estudios están hechos sobre sólidas bases metodológicas, pero que su implementación, especialmente en paises en desarrollo, plantea problemas adicionales.

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References

1
Chandrasekaran, C., & Deming, W. E. (
1949
).
On a Method for Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
XLIV
(
245
),
101
15
.
2
See P. Cantrelle, “Repeated Demographic Observation in a Rural Area in Senegal: Method and First Results” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/V/F/207); M. Majumdar, “Estimation of Vital Rates in the Indian National Sample Survey” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/I/E/312); G. Sabagh, and C. Scott, “An Evaluation of the Use of Retrospective Questionnaires for Obtaining Vital Data: The Experience of the Moroccan Multi-purpose Sample Survey of 1961-63” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/V/E/56) ; United Nations, Guanabara: Demographic Pilot Survey (“Population Studies No. 35” [New York, 1964]), The Mysore Population Study (“Population Studies No. 34” [New York, 1961]); G. Vukovich, “The U.A.R. Project for Measuring Vital Rates in Rural Areas” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/I/E/68).
3
For the Pakistan Study, see N. Ahmed and K. J. Krotki, “Simultaneous Estimations of Population Growth: The Pakistan Experiment,” Pakistan Development Review, III, No. 1, (Spring, 1963), 37–65, and “Second Report on the Population Growth Estimation Experiment” (paper presented to the Asian Population Conference, New Delhi, 1963); S. S. Hashmi, “Estimating Vital Rates in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Pakistan” (paper prepared for the Regional Cooperative Development Seminar on Family Planning, Karachi, 1966). For the documenta relating to the Thailand study, see P. Lauriat and A. Chintakananda, “Technique To Measure Population Growth: Survey of Population Change in Thailand” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/V/E/507); National Statistical Office, Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Thailand, “Survey of Population Change: Study Outline,” July, 1954 (mimeographed). For material concerning the study in Turkey, see N. H. Fisek, Y. Heperkan, and J. Rumford, “The Role of the Turkish Demographic Survey in the Family Planning and Rural Health Programs” (July, 1965; offset), and “The Evolution of the Turkish Demographic Survey” (unpublished manuscript).
4
Hashmi, op. cit., S. S. Hashmi, “Estimating Vital Rates in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Pakistan” (paper prepared for the Regional Cooperative Development Seminar on Family Planning, Karachi, 1966) pp. 15–16.
5
National Statistical Office, op. cit., National Statistical Office, Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Thailand, “Survey of Population Change: Study Outline,” July, 1954 (mimeographed) pp. 7–8.
6
W. P. Mauldin, “Estimating Rates of Population Growth” (paper presented to the International Conference on Family Planning Programs, Geneva, 1965), p. 15.
7
Hashmi, op. cit., S. S. Hashmi, “Estimating Vital Rates in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Pakistan” (paper prepared for the Regional Cooperative Development Seminar on Family Planning, Karachi, 1966) p. 14.
8
W. Seltzer and S. S. Hashmi, “A Note on the Limitations of Population Growth Estimation Data Used for Life Table Construction,” Appendix A in N. Asian and S. S. Hashmi, “Abridged Life Tables of Pakistan and Provinces by Sex, 1962” (Research Report No. 48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (March, 1966), pp. 30–31 (Mimeographed).
9
Fisek et al., The Evolution …, N. H. Fisek, Y. Heperkan, and J. Rumford, “The Role of the Turkish Demographic Survey in the Family Planning and Rural Health Programs” (July, 1965; offset), and “The Evolution of the Turkish Demographic Survey” (unpublished manuscript). p. 2.
10
Lauriat and Chintakananda, op. cit., P. Lauriat and A. Chintakananda, “Technique To Measure Population Growth: Survey of Population Change in Thailand” (paper presented to the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 1965, Doc. No. B.6/V/E/507); National Statistical Office, Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Thailand, “Survey of Population Change: Study Outline,” July, 1954 (mimeographed) p. 4.
11
Mauldin, op. cit., W. P. Mauldin, “Estimating Rates of Population Growth” (paper presented to the International Conference on Family Planning Programs, Geneva, 1965) p. 14.
12
Seltzer and Hashmi, op. cit., W. Seltzer and S. S. Hashmi, “A Note on the Limitations of Population Growth Estimation Data Used for Life Table Construction,” Appendix A in N. Asian and S. S. Hashmi, “Abridged Life Tables of Pakistan and Provinces by Sex, 1962” (Research Report No. 48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (March, 1966) p. 30.
13
Chandrasekaran, C., & Deming, W. E. (
1949
).
On a Method for Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
XLIV
(
245
),
101
15
.
14
J. Rumford, “Progress Report, Month of October, 1965” (memorandum to M. J. Lieberman, November 3, 1965).