Summary

In the past, one of the concomitants of development has been a sustained reduction in fertility. As a result of this experience, demographers hypothesize that in a society in which fertility is lower in urban areas, among the upper socioeconomic status groups and the better-educated, fertility will decline to a moderate level as the country changes from a rural, agricultural socioeconomic structure, with low levels of living and education, to an urban, industrial structure, with rising levels of living and education.

The data analyzed in this study indicate, however, that though substantial social and economic development (as measured by changes in industrial structure, per capita income, urbanization, and education) occurred in Brazil from at least 1920–40 to 1960, during which time fertility differentials of the kind indicated above existed, fertility has shown little or no tendency to decline. Between 1940 and 1960, in fact, the birth rate appears to have remained fairly constant around 43. With the death rate steadily dropping, the rate of natural increase and population growth (given a small net in-migration) has been accelerating.

From a theoretical point of view, these facts reinforce a growing realization, based on similar findings in some other developing countries, that the prevailing theoretical ideas concerning the relationship between development and fertility require modification, particularly in the direction of greater specificity. On the practical side, the question is raised whether Brazil’s rate of economic development during the postwar period up to 1960 can be maintained, let alone increased, in the face of a population growth rate which will probably average 3.2–3.5 percent for the period 1960–70 and which, in the absence of a decline in fertility, is likely to accelerate further.

Resumen

En el pasado, uno de los hechos concomitantes del desarrollo ha sido una reduction sostenida en la fecundidad. Como resultado de esta experiencia, los demógrafos plantean la hipótesis de que, en una sociedad en la cual la fecundidad es baja en las áreas urbanas entre los grupos de estatus socio económica más elevados y mejor educados, la fecundidad disminuirá a niveles moderados a medida que el país cambie de una estructura rural, socio económica agrícola, con bajos niveles de vida y de educación, a una estructura urbana, industrial con crecientes niveles de vida y educación. Los datos analizados en este estudio indican, sin embargo, que aunque en el Brasil ha ocurrido un evidente desarrollo económico y social, al menos desde 1920–40 a 1960 (medido por las cambios en la estructura social, ingreso per cápita, urbanización, y educación), época en la que existian diferenciales de fecundidad del tipo descrito anteriormente, la fecundidad ha mostrado muy poca o ninguna tendencia a disminuir. Entre 1940 y 1960, en realidad la tasa de natalidad parece haberse mantenido bastante constante, alrededor de 43. Con la tasa de mortalidad en franca disminución la tasa de incremento natural y crecimiento poblacional (dada una pequeã inmigración neta) se ha venido acelerando.

Desde un punto de vista teórico, estas hechos refuerzan una noción coda vez más definida, basada en similares hallazgos en algunos otros paises en desarrollo, de que las ideas teóricas prevalescientes, sobre la relación entre desarrollo y fecundidad requieren alguna modification, particularmente en cuanto se refiere a una mayor especificidad. Desde el punto de vista práctica, se plantea el interrogante de si la tasa de desarrollo económico del Brasil, durante el período de postguerra hasta 1960, puede ser mentenida, al punto que ha aumentado, frente a una tasa de crecimiento poblacional que probablemente estará entre 3.2 y 3.5 por ciento para el periodo de 1960–70, y la cual, en ausencia de una disminución de la fecundidad, es posible que se acelere más.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

1
United Nations (ECLA), The Economic Development of Latin America in the Post-War Period (New York, 1964), pp. 1–2, 6. The rates for all of Latin America were 4.2 percent (1945–50), 1.7 percent (1950–55), and 1.0 percent (1955–61).
2
Ibid., United Nations (ECLA), The Economic Development of Latin America in the Post-War Period (New York, 1964), p. 113
3
(
1961
).
Relationships between Economic Development, Urbanization and the Growth of Urban Population in Brazil
. In Hauser, Philip M. (Ed.),
Urbanization in Latin America
(pp.
159
159
).
New York
:
UNESCO
.
4
IBGE, Estatistico do Brasil 1964, p. 265, preliminary estimates. GNP used because no income data are reported for this period.
5
United Nations, op. cit. United Nations (ECLA), The Economic Development of Latin America in the Post-War Period (New York, 1964), p. 113
6
(United Nations, Population Bulletin of the United Nationst No. 7, 1963 [New York, 1965], p. 123).
7
John D. Durand and César A. Pelâez, “Patterns of Urbanization in Latin America,” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, LXIII, No. 4 (October, 1965), 173, Table 3.
8
Williamson, Jeffrey G. (
1965
).
Regional Inequality and the Process of National Development
.
Economic Development and Cultural Change
,
XIII
(
4
),
10
14
.
10
VI Recenseamento Geral do Brasil, 1950, Censo Demogrdfico, Vol. I: Brasil, p. 259, Table 4.
11
United Nations, Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963 (New York, 1963), pp. 325 and 330.
12
Saunders, J. V. D. (
1958
).
Differential Fertility in Brazil
(pp.
31
31
).
Gainesville
:
University of Florida Press
.
19
See his paper “Fertility Trends and Differentials in Latin America,” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, XLIII, No. 4 (October, 1965), 21–22.
20
Saunders, J. V. D. (
1958
).
Differential Fertility in Brazil
(pp.
41
41
).
Gainesville
:
University of Florida Press
.
21
Smith, T. Lynn (
1963
).
Brazil: People and Institutions
(pp.
103
06
).
Baton Rouge
:
Louisiana State University Press
.
22
Saunders, J. V. D. (
1958
).
Differential Fertility in Brazil
(pp.
102
102
).
Gainesville
:
University of Florida Press
.
23
Saunders, J. V. D. (
1958
).
Differential Fertility in Brazil
(pp.
181
83
).
Gainesville
:
University of Florida Press
.
24
Mortara, Giorgio et al (
1954
).
The Brazilian Birth Rate: Its Economic and Social Factors
. In Lorimer, Frank et al (Ed.),
Culture and Human Fertility
(pp.
ix
ix
).
Paris
:
UNESCO
.
25
Mortara, Giorgio et al (
1954
).
The Brazilian Birth Rate: Its Economic and Social Factors
. In Lorimer, Frank et al (Ed.),
Culture and Human Fertility
(pp.
489
489
).
Paris
:
UNESCO
.
27
Miro, Carmen A., & Rath, Ferdinand (
1965
).
Preliminary Findings of Comparative Fertility Surveys in Three Latin American Cities
.
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
,
XLIII
(
4
),
51
51
.
29
The World’s Metropolitan Areas
. (
1959
).
Berkeley
:
University of California Press
.
30
Carleton, op. cit., pp. 21–22. However, its deficiencies are probably not as great as is contended by Saunders, op. cit., pp. 70–75.
31
“O Brasil em Números” (Appendix to Anuario Estatistico do Brasil 1960 [Rio, 1960]), p. 11, Table 8.
32
Mortara, Giorgio et al (
1954
).
The Brazilian Birth Rate: Its Economic and Social Factors
. In Lorimer, Frank et al (Ed.),
Culture and Human Fertility
(pp.
420
420
).
Paris
:
UNESCO
.
33
IBGE, Conselho Nacional de Estatistica, Laboratério de Estatistica, Pesquisas Demogrâficas, “Conjecturas sobre o Nivel da Natalidade no Brasil e nas Unidades da Federacao, em 1960 (Rio de Janeiro, 1964), p. 1, and Table 1, p. 4 (mimeo.)
34
Mortara, Giorgio (
1963
).
A Fecundidade da Mulher no Brasil Segundo as Unidades da Federacao
.
Revista Brasileira de Estatistica
,
XXIV
,
1
1
.
35
Giorgio Mortara, A Fecundidade da Mulher no Brasil, IBGE (Rio de Janeiro, 1957), pp. 2–3, 14–17.
37
See his paper “Estimativa do Numero dos Öbitos e da Taxa de Mortalidade Gérai para o Brasil (1950),” in IBGE, Contribuçoes, op. cit., IBGE, Estatistico do Brasil 1964, p. 116.
39
Demographic Yearbook 1952, p. 23. Por a fuller discussion, see the United Nations, Population Bulletin, No. 2.
40
Ibid., Demographic Yearbook 1952, p. 23. Por a fuller discussion, see the United Nations, Population Bulletin, No. 2.
42
United Nations, Demographic Yearbook 1952, p. 23.
43
Ibid., United Nations, Demographic Yearbook 1952, p. 23.
44
Mortara, Giorgio (
1964
).
Characteristics of the Demographic Structure of the American Countries
(pp.
39
39
).
Washington, D.C.
:
lnteramerican Statistical Institute, Pan American Union
.
46
Collver, O. Andrew (
1965
).
Birth Rates in Latin America: New Estimates of Historical Trends and Fluctuations
(pp.
4
4
).
Berkeley
:
Institute of International Studies, University of California
.