Abstract

In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regression models in which PPH estimates were based on symptomatic indicators of PPH change. We tested these estimates using county-level data in four states and found them to be more precise and less biased than estimates based on more commonly used methods.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Ahlburg, D. 1999. “Using Economic Information and Combining to Improve Forecast Accuracy in Demography.” Unpublished paper, Industrial Relations Center, University of Minnesota.
Brown, W. 1999. “Use of Property Tax Records and Household Composition Matrices to Improve the Housing Unit Method for Small Area Population Estimates.” Paper presented at the Population Estimates Methods Conference, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Suitland, MD.
A Model for Estimating Household Size in the San Diego Region
. (
1974
).
San Diego
:
Author
.
Crosetti, A.H., & Schmitt, R.C. (
1956
).
A Method of Estimating the Intercensal Population of Counties
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
51
,
587
90
. 10.2307/2281470
Findley, S.E. (
1979
).
Nonlinear Estimation of Household Size: The Minnesota Housing Unit Method
.
St. Paul
:
Minnesota State Planning Agency
.
Gober, P. (
1990
).
The Urban Demographic Landscape: A Geographic Perspective
. In Myers, D. (Ed.),
Housing Demography
(pp.
232
48
).
Madison
:
University of Wisconsin Press
.
Hodges, K. and M.K. Healy. 1984. “A Micro Application of a Modified Housing Unit Model for Tract Level Population and Household Estimates.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN, May 3–5.
Keilman, N. (
1999
).
How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections?
. In Lutz, W., Vaupel, J., & Ahlburg, D. (Eds.),
Frontiers of Population Forecasting
(pp.
15
41
).
New York
:
The Population Council
.
Kobrin, F.E. (
1976
).
The Fall in Household Size and the Rise of the Primary Individual in the United States
.
Demography
,
13
,
127
38
. 10.2307/2060425
Loftin, C., & Ward, S.K. (
1983
).
A Spatial Autocorrelation Model of the Effects of Population Density on Fertility
.
American Sociological Review
,
48
,
121
28
. 10.2307/2095150
Lowe, T.J., W.R. Myers, and L.M. Weisser. 1984. “A Special Consideration in Improving Housing Unit Estimates: The Interaction Effect.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN, May 3–5.
McKibben, J.N., & Swanson, D.A. (
1997
).
Linking Substance and Practice: A Case Study of the Relationship Between Socio-Economic Structure and Population Estimation
.
Journal of Economic and Social Measurement
,
23
,
135
47
.
Mencken, F.C., & Barnett, C. (
1999
).
Murder, Nonnegligent Manslaughter, and Spatial Autocorrelation in Mid-South Counties
.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
,
15
,
407
22
. 10.1023/A:1007592124641
Myers, D., & Doyle, A. (
1990
).
Age-Specific Population-per-Household Ratios: Linking Population Age Structure with Housing Characteristics
. In Myers, D. (Ed.),
Housing Demography
(pp.
109
30
).
Madison
:
University of Wisconsin Press
.
Namboodiri, N.K. (
1972
).
On the Ratio-Correlation and Related Methods of Subnational Population Estimation
.
Demography
,
9
,
443
53
. 10.2307/2060865
O’Hare, W. (
1976
).
Report on a Multiple Regression Method for Making Population Estimates
.
Demography
,
13
,
369
79
. 10.2307/2060534
Roe, L.K., Carlson, J.F., & Swanson, D.A. (
1992
).
A Variation of the Housing Unit Method for Estimating the Population of Small, Rural Areas: A Case Study of the Local Expert Procedure
.
Survey Methodology
,
18
,
155
63
.
Sanderson, W. (
1999
).
Knowledge Can Improve Forecasts: A Review of Selected Socioeconomic Population Projection Models
. In Lutz, W., Vaupel, J., & Ahlburg, D. (Eds.),
Frontiers of Population Forecasting
(pp.
88
117
).
New York
:
The Population Council
.
Schmitt, R., & Grier, J. (
1966
).
A Method of Estimating the Population of Minor Civil Divisions
.
Rural Sociology
,
31
,
355
61
.
Shahidullah, M. (
1999
).
Unpublished survey of state members of the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates
.
Springfield
:
Illinois Center for Health Statistics
.
Smith, S.K. (
1986
).
A Review and Evaluation of the Housing Unit Method of Population Estimation
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
81
,
287
96
. 10.2307/2289216
Smith, S.K., & Cody, S. (
1994
).
Evaluating the Housing Unit Method: A Case Study of 1990 Population Estimates in Florida
.
Journal of the American Planning Association
,
60
,
209
21
. 10.1080/01944369408975574
Smith, S.K., & Lewis, B. (
1980
).
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
.
Demography
,
17
,
323
39
. 10.2307/2061106
Smith, S.K., & Mandell, M. (
1984
).
A Comparison of Population Estimation Methods: Housing Unit Versus Component II, Ratio Correlation, and Administrative Records
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
79
,
282
89
. 10.2307/2288261
Starsinic, D.E., & Zitter, M. (
1968
).
Accuracy of the Housing Unit Method in Preparing Population Estimates for Cities
.
Demography
,
5
,
475
84
.
An Evaluation of Population Estimating Techniques in New Jersey
. (
1984
).
NJ
:
Department of Labor
.
Swanson, D.A., & Beck, D. (
1994
).
A New Short-Term County Population Projection Method
.
Journal of Economic and Social Measurement
,
20
,
25
50
.
Swanson, D.A., & Tedrow, L.M. (
1984
).
Improving the Measurement of Temporal Change in Regression Models Used for County Population Estimates
.
Demography
,
21
,
373
81
. 10.2307/2061166
State and Local Agencies Preparing Population and Housing Estimates
. (
1990
).
Washington, DC
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
U.S. Bureau of the Census 1998. “Subcounty Population Estimates Methodology.” Available on-line at www.census.gov/population/methods/e98scdoc.txt
Profile of General Demographic Characteristics
. (
2001
).
Washington DC
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Voss, P., R. Hammer, and D. Long. 2001. “Demography and Regression Analysis: What Demographers Can Learn From Quantitative Geographers.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Miami Beach, FL, October 11–13.
Voss, P., & Krebs, H. (
1979
).
The Use of Federal Revenue Data for Improving Current Estimates of Average Household Size for Minor Civil Divisions: An Evaluation
.
Madison
:
Applied Population Laboratory, University of Wisconsin-Madison
.