Abstract
The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more “selective” causes; and (3) a shift of the deceleration to older ages with declining levels of mortality. A parametric model employed to illustrate the third prediction relies on the distinction between senescent and background mortality. This dichotomy, though simplistic, helps to explain the observed timing of the deceleration.
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
Abrams, P.A., & Ludwig, D. (
1995
). Optimality Theory, Gompertz' Law, and the Disposable Soma Theory of Senescence
. Evolution
, 49
, 1055
–66
. 10.2307/2410431Baba, S., Ozawa, H., Sakai, Y., Terao, A., Konishi, M., & Tatara, K. (
1994
). Heart Disease Deaths in a Japanese Urban Area Evaluated by Clinical and Police Records
. Circulation
, 89
, 109
–15
.Barker, D.J., Gluckman, P.D., Godfrey, K.M., Harding, J.E., Owens, J.A., & Robinson, J.S. (
1993
). Fetal Nutrition and Cardiovascular Disease in Adult Life
. Lancet
, 341
, 938
–41
. 10.1016/0140-6736(93)91224-ABeard, R.E. (
1959
). Note on Some Mathematical Mortality Models
. In G.E.W. Wolstenholme, & M. O'Connor (Eds.), CIBA Foundation Colloquia on Ageing, The Life Span of Animals 5
(pp. 302
–11
). Boston
: Little, Brown and Company
.Benjamin, B. (
1964
). Demographic and Actuarial Aspects of Ageing, With Special Reference to England and Wales
. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
, 90
, 211
–38
.Bourgeois-Pichat, J. (
1978
). Future Outlook for Mortality Decline in the World
. Population Bulletin of the United Nations
, 11
, 12
–41
.Boyle, P., Vecchia, C.L., Maisonneuve, P., Zheng, T., & MacFarlane, G.R. (
1995
). Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention
. In M. Peckham, H.M. Pinedo, & U. Veronesi (Eds.), Oxford Textbook of Oncology
(pp. 199
–273
). New York
: Oxford University Press
.Brass, L.M., & Alberts, M.J. (
1995
). The Genetics of Cerebrovascular Disease
. Baillieres Clinical Neurology
, 4
, 221
–45
.Brillinger, D.R. (
1986
). The Natural Variability of Vital Rates and Associated Statistics
. Biometrics
, 42
, 693
–734
. 10.2307/2530689Brooks, A., Lithgow, G.J., & Johnson, T.E. (
1994
). Mortality Rates in a Genetically Heterogeneous Population of Caenorhabditis elegans
. Science
, 263
, 668
–71
. 10.1126/science.8303273Carey, J.R., & Liedo, P. (
1995
). Sex-Specific Life Table Aging Rates in Large Medfly Cohorts
. Experimental Gerontology
, 30
, 315
–25
. 10.1016/0531-5565(94)00041-ZCarey, J.R., Liedo, P., Orozco, D., & Vaupel, J.W. (
1992
). Slowing of Mortality Rates at Older Ages in Large Medfly Cohorts
. Science
, 258
, 458
–61
. 10.1126/science.1411540Carnes, B.A., Olshansky, S.J., & Grahn, D. (
1996
). Continuing the Search for a Fundamental Law of Mortality
. Population and Development Review
, 22
, 231
–64
. 10.2307/2137434Charlesworth, B., & Partridge, L. (
1997
). Ageing: Levelling of the Grim Reaper
. Current Biology
, 7
, R440
–42
. 10.1016/S0960-9822(06)00213-2Coale, A.J., & Kisker, E.E. (
1990
). Defects in Data on Old-Age Mortality in the United States: New Procedures for Calculating Mortality Schedules and Life Tables at Highest Ages
. Asian and Pacific Population Forum
, 4
(1
), 1
–31
.Coale, A.J., & Shaomin, Li (
1991
). The Effect of Age Misreporting in China on the Calculation of Mortality Rates at Very High Ages
. Demography
, 28
, 293
–301
. 10.2307/2061281Crimmins, E.M. (
1981
). The Changing Pattern of American Mortality Decline, 1940–77, and Its Implications for the Future
. Population and Development Review
, 7
, 229
–54
. 10.2307/1972622Curtsinger, J.W., Fukui, H.H., Townsend, D.R., & Vaupel, J.W. (
1992
). Demography of Genotypes: Failure of the Limited LifeSpan Paradigm in Drosophila melongaster
. Science
, 258
, 461
–63
. 10.1126/science.1411541de Chateau, P. (
1990
). Mortality and Aggressiveness in a 30-year Follow-Up Study in Child Guidance Clinics in Stockholm
. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
, 81
, 472
–76
. 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1990.tb05484.xDoll, R., Peto, R., Wheatley, K., Gray, R., & Sutherland, L. (
1994
). Mortality in Relation to Smoking: 40 Years' Observations on Male British Doctors
. British Medical Journal
, 309
, 901
–11
.Economos, A.C. (
1980
). Kinetics of Metazoan Mortality
. Journal ofSocial Biological Structures
, 3
, 317
–29
. 10.1016/0140-1750(80)90039-1Elo, L.T., & Preston, S.H. (
1992
). Effects of Early-Life Conditions on Adult Mortality: A Review
. Population Index
, 58
, 186
–212
. 10.2307/3644718Elo, L.T. (
1994
). Estimating African-American Mortality from Incomplete Data
. Demography
, 31
, 427
–58
. 10.2307/2061751Ensrud, K.E., Palermo, L., Black, D.M., Cauley, J., Jergas, M., Orwoll, E.S., Nevitt, M.C., Fox, K.M., & Cummings, S.R. (
1995
). Hip and Calcaneal Bone Loss Increase With Advancing Age: Longitudinal Results From the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures
. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
, 10
, 1778
–87
. 10.1002/jbmr.5650101122Finch, C.E. (
1990
). Longevity, Senescence, and the Genome
. Chicago
: The University of Chicago Press
.Fujimoto, W.Y. (
1996
). Overview of Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (NIDDM) in Different Population Groups
. Diabetic Medicine
, 13
(9 Suppl. 6
), 7
–10
.Gavrilov, L.A., & Gavrilova, N.S. (
1991
). The Biology ofLife Span: A Quantitative Approach
. New York
: Harwood
.Goldman, N., & Takahashi, S. (
1996
). Old-Age Mortality in Japan: Demographic and Epidemiological Perspectives
. In G. Caselli, & A.D. Lopez (Eds.), Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations
(pp. 157
–81
). New York
: Oxford University Press
.Grove, G.L., & Kligman, A.M. (
1983
). Age-Associated Changes in Human Epidermal Cell Renewal
. Journal of Gerontology
, 38
, 137
–42
.Horiuchi, S. (
1983
). The Long-term Impact of War on Mortality: Old-Age Mortality of World War I Survivors in the Federal Republic of Germany
. Population Bulletin of the United Nations
, 15
, 80
–92
.Horiuchi, S. (
1997
). Postmenopausal Acceleration of Age-Related Mortality Increase
. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences
, 52A
, B78
–92
.Horiuchi, S., & Coale, A.J. (
1990
). Age Patterns of Mortality for Older Women: An Analysis Using the Age-specific Rate of Mortality Change With Age
. Mathematical Population Studies
, 2
, 245
–67
. 10.1080/08898489009525312Horiuchi, S., & Wilmoth, J.R. (
1997
). Age Patterns of the Life-Table Aging Rate for Major Causes of Death in Japan, 1951–1990
. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences
, 52A
, B67
–77
.Hui, S.L., Slemenda, C.W., Johnston, C.C., & Appledorn, C.R. (
1987
). Effects of Age and Menopause on Vertebral Bone Density
. Bone and Mineral Research
, 2
, 141
–46
.Kaesberg, P.R., & Ershler, W.B. (
1989
). The Change in Tumor Aggressiveness With Age: Lessons From Experimental Animals
. Seminars in Oncology
, 16
, 28
–33
.Kahn, C.R., Vicent, D., & Doria, A. (
1996
). Genetics ofNon-Insulin-Dependent (Type-H) Diabetes Mellitus
. Annual Review of Medicine
, 47
, 509
–31
. 10.1146/annurev.med.47.1.509Kannisto, V. (
1996
). The Advancing Frontier of Survival: Life Tables for Old Age
. Odense, Denmark
: Odense University Press
.Kannisto, V., Christensen, K., & Vaupel, J.W (
1997
). No Increased Mortality in Later Life for Cohorts Born During Famine
. American Journal of Epidemiology
, 145
, 987
–94
.Kannisto, V., Lauristen, J., Thatcher, A.R., & Vaupel, J.W (
1994
). “Reduction in Mortality at Advanced Ages
. Population and Development Review
, 20
, 793
–810
. 10.2307/2137662Keyfitz, N., & Flieger, W. (
1968
). World Population. An Analysis of Vital Data
. Chicago
: University of Chicago Press
.Keys, A., Menotti, A., Aravanis, C., Blackburn, H., Djordevic, B.S., Buzina, R., Dontas, A.S., Fidanza, F., Karvonen, M.J., & Kimura, N. (
1984
). The Seven Countries Study: 2,289 Deaths in 150 Years
. Preventive Medicine
, 13
, 141
–54
. 10.1016/0091-7435(84)90047-1Khaw, K.T. (
1992
). Epidemiology of the Menopause
. British Medical Bulletin
, 48
, 249
–61
.Khazaeli, A.A., Xiu, L., & Curtsinger, J.W. (
1995
). Stress Experiments as a Means of Investigating Age-Specific Mortality in Drosophila melongaster
. Experimental Gerontology
, 30
, 177
–84
. 10.1016/0531-5565(94)00058-1Kobayashi, K., & Nanjo, Z. (
1988
). Generation Life Tables for Japan Based on Period Life Tables Covering the Years 1891–1986
. Tokyo
: Nihon University Population Research Institute
.Kono, S., Sunagawa, Y., Higa, H., & Sunagawa, H. (
1990
). Age of Menopause in Japanese Women: Trends and Recent Changes
. Maturitas
, 12
, 43
–49
. 10.1016/0378-5122(90)90059-FLuoto, R., Kaprio, J., & Uutela, A. (
1994
). Age at Natural Menopause and Sociodemographic Status in Finland
. American Journal of Epidemiology
, 139
, 64
–76
.Makeham, W.M. (
1860
). On the Law of Mortality and the Construction of Annuity Tables
. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
, 8
, 301
–10
.Manton, K.G. (
1992
). Mortality and Life Expectancy Changes Among the Oldest Old
. In R.M. Suzman, D.P. Willis, & K.G. Manton (Eds.), The Oldest Old
(pp. 157
–82
). New York
: Oxford University Press
.Manton, K.G. Forthcoming. “The Future of Old Age.” In Textbook of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, 5th edition, edited by J. C. Brocklehurst. London: Churchill Livingstone.
Manton, K.G., Corder, L.S., & Stallard, E. (
1997
). Chronic Disability Trends in Elderly United States Populations: 1982–1994
. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
, 94
, 2593
–98
. 10.1073/pnas.94.6.2593Manton, K.G., Stallard, E., & Corder, L.S. (
1997
). Changes in the Age Dependence of Mortality and Disability: Cohort and Other Determinants
. Demography
, 34
, 135
–58
. 10.2307/2061664Manton, K.G., Stallard, E., & Vaupel, J.W. (
1981
). Methods for Comparing the Mortality Experience of Heterogeneous Populations
. Demography
, 18
, 389
–410
. 10.2307/2061005Manton, K.G. (
1986
). Alternative Models for the Heterogeneity of Mortality Risks Among the Aged
. Journal of American Statistical Association
, 81
, 635
–44
. 10.2307/2288991Manton, K.G., Stallard, E., Woodbury, M.A., & Dowd, J.E. (
1994
). Time-Varying Covariates in Models of Human Mortality and Aging: Multidimensional Generalization of the Gompertz
. Journal of Gerontology
, 49
(4
), B169
–90
.Masoro, E.J. (
1985
). Metabolism
. In C.E. Finch, & E.L. Schneider (Eds.), Handbook of the Biology of Aging
(pp. 540
–63
). 2nd editionNew York
: van Nostrand Reinhold
.Mueller, L.D., & Rose, M.R. (
1996
). Evolutionary Theory Predicts Late-Life Mortality Plateaus
. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
, 93
, 15249
–53
. 10.1073/pnas.93.26.15249Nicolaides-Bouman, A., Wald, N., Forey, B., & Lee, P. (
1993
). International Smoking Statistics
. New York
: Oxford University Press
.Olshansky, S.J., & Ault, A.B. (
1986
). The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases
. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
, 64
, 355
–91
.O'Rourke, M.A., Feussner, J.R., Feigl, P., & Laszlo, J. (
1987
). Age Trends of Lung Cancer Stage at Diagnosis
. Journal of American Medical Association
, 258
, 921
–26
. 10.1001/jama.258.7.921Peer, P.G.M., van Dijck, J.A.A.M., Hendriks, J.H.C.L., Holland, R., & Verbeek, A.L.M. (
1993
). Age-Dependent Growth Rate of Primary Breast Cancer
. Cancer
, 71
, 3547
–51
. 10.1002/1097-0142(19930601)71:11<3547::AID-CNCR2820711114>3.0.CO;2-CPerks, W. (
1932
). On Some Experiments in the Graduation of Mortality Statistics
. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
, 63
, 12
–40
.Perls, T.T. (
1995
). The Oldest Old
. Scientific American
, 272
(1
), 70
–75
. 10.1038/scientificamerican0195-70Perls, T.T., Morris, J.N., Ooi, W.L., & Lipsitz, L.A. (
1993
). The Relationship Between Age, Gender and Cognitive Performance in the Very Old: The Effect of Selective Survival
. Journal of the American Geriatric Society
, 41
, 1193
–201
.Peto, R., Lopez, A.D., Boreham, J., Thun, M., & Heath, C. (
1994
). Mortality From Smoking in Developed Countries. 1950–2000
. New York
: Oxford University Press
.Pletcher, S.D., & Curtsinger, J.W. (
1998
). Mortality Plateaus and the Evolution of Senescence: Why Are Old-Age Mortality Rates So Low?
. Evolution
, 52
, 454
–64
. 10.2307/2411081Rebeck, G.W., Perls, T.T., West, H.L., Sodhi, P., Lipsitz, L.A., & Hyman, B.T. (
1994
). Reduced Apolipoprotein Epsilon 4 Allele Frequency in the Oldest Old Alzheimer's Patients and Cognitively Normal Individuals
. Neurology
, 44
, 1513
–16
.Redington, F.M. (
1969
). An Exploration Into Patterns of Mortality
. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
, 95
, 243
–98
.Remmen, H.V., Ward, W.F., Sabia, R.V., & Richardson, A. (
1995
). Gene Expression and Protein Degradation
. In E.J. Masoro (Ed.), Handbook of Physiology, Section II, Aging
(pp. 171
–234
). New York
: Oxford University Press
.Riggs, J.E. (
1992
). The Dynamics of Aging and Mortality in the United States, 1900–1988
. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
, 66
, 45
–57
. 10.1016/0047-6374(92)90072-LRogers, R.G., & Hackenberg, R. (
1987
). Extending Epidemiologic Transition Theory: A New Stage
. Social Biology
, 34
, 234
–43
.Rosenberg, B., Kemeny, G., Smith, L.G., Skurnick, I.D., & Bandurski, M.J. (
1973
). The Kinetics and Thermodynamics of Death in Multicellular Organisms
. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
, 2
, 275
–93
. 10.1016/0047-6374(73)90023-7Sohal, R.S. (
1986
). The Rate of Living Theory: A Contemporary Interpretation
. In K.G. Collatz, & R.S. Sohal (Eds.), Insect Aging: Strategies and Mechanisms
(pp. 23
–44
). Berlin
: Springer
.Strehler, B.L., & Mildvan, A.S. (
1960
). General Theory of Mortality and Aging
. Science
, 132
, 14
–21
. 10.1126/science.132.3418.14Stremmel, W., Schwarzendrube, J., Niederau, C., & Strohmeyer, G. (
1991
). Epidemiology, Clinical Course and Treatment of Chronic Viral Hepatitis
. Hepato-Gastroenterology
, 38
(1
), 22
–8
.Tatar, M., & Carey, J.R. (
1994
). Sex Mortality Differentials in the Bean Beetle: Reframing the Question
. American Naturalist
, 144
, 165
–75
. 10.1086/285667United Nations. Various years. Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations.
Van der Hulst, R.W., & Tytgat, G.N. (
1996
). Helicobacter pylori and Peptic Ulcer Disease
. Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology
, 220
, 10
–18
. 10.3109/00365529609094744Vaupel, J.W., & Carey, J.R. (
1993
). Compositional Interpretations of Medfly Mortality
. Science
, 260
, 1666
–67
. 10.1126/science.8503016Vaupel, J.W., Manton, K.G., & Stallard, E. (
1979
). The Impact of Heterogeneity in Individual Frailty on the Dynamics of Mortality
. Demography
, 16
, 439
–54
. 10.2307/2061224Vaupel, J.W., & Yashin, A.I. (
1986
). Cancer Rates Over Age, Time and Place: Insights From Stochastic Models of Heterogeneous Populations
. Laxenburg, Austria
: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
.Wilmoth, J.R. (
1995
). Are Mortality Rates Falling at Extremely High Ages? An Investigation Based on a Model Proposed by Coale and Kisker
. Population Studies
, 49
, 281
–95
. 10.1080/0032472031000148516Wilmoth, J.R., & Lundstrom, H. (
1996
). Extreme Longevity in Five Countries: Presentation of Trends With Special Attention to Issues of Data Quality
. European Journal of Population
, 12
, 63
–93
. 10.1007/BF01797166Witten, M. (
1988
). A Return to Time, Cells, Systems, and Aging: V. Further Thoughts on Gompertzian Survival Dynamics—The Geriatric Years
. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
, 46
, 175
–200
. 10.1016/0047-6374(88)90124-8Wolf, P.A., D'Agostino, R.B., Belanger, A.J., & Kannel, W.B. (
1991
). Probability of Stroke: A Risk Profile From the Framingham Study
. Stroke
, 22
, 312
–18
.Yashin, A.I., Vaupel, J.W., & Iachine, I.A. (
1994
). A Duality in Aging: The Equivalence of Mortality Models Based on Radically Different Concepts
. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
, 74
, 1
–14
. 10.1016/0047-6374(94)90094-9© Population Association of America 1998
1998
Issue Section:
Old-Age Mortality and Morbidity
