Abstract

In this paper we introduce a mixture model in which we combine logistic regression and piecewise proportional hazards models for analysis of duration data. The model allows simultaneous estimation of two sets of effects of covariates: one of the probability of an event and the other of the timing of the event. We illustrate the application of the model through an analysis of the effects of women s characteristics and of the acceptance of a one-child certificate on the birth of second children in China. Both factors affect the probability of having a second child, but only the acceptance of a one-child certificate has a significant and strong effect on the second-birth interval.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Allison, P.O. (
1982
).
Discrete-Time Methods for the Analysis of Event Histories
. In Leinhardt, S. (Ed.),
Sociological Methodology
(pp.
61
98
).
San Francisco
:
Jossey-Bass
.
Boag, J.N. (
1949
).
Maximum Likelihood Estimates of the Proportion of Patients Cured by Cancer Therapy
.
Journal of Royal Statistical Society
,
11
,
15
44
.
Choe, M.K., & Tsuya, N. (
1991
).
Why Do Chinese Women Practice Contraception? The Case of Rural Jilin Province
.
Studies in Family Planning
,
22
,
39
51
. 10.2307/1966518
Coale, A.J., & Chen, S. (
1987
).
Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940–1981
.
Honolulu
:
East-West Center
.
Cooney, R.S., Wei, J., & Powers, M.G. (
1991
).
The One-Child Certificate in Hebei Province in China: Acceptance and Consequences, 1979–1988
.
Population Research and Policy Review
,
10
,
137
55
. 10.1007/BF00128818
Cox, D.R. (
1972
).
Regression Models and Life-Tables (with Discussion)
.
Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series B
,
34
,
187
220
.
Dempster, A.P., Laird, N.M., & Rubin, D.B. (
1977
).
Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm (with Discussion)
.
Journal of Royal Statistical Society
,
3
,
1
38
.
Farewell, V.T. (
1982
).
The Use of Mixture Models for the Analysis of Survival Data with Long-Term Survivors
.
Biometrics
,
38
,
1041
46
. 10.2307/2529885
Feeney, G., & Wang, F. (
1993
).
Parity Progression and Birth Intervals in China: The Influence of Policy in Hastening Fertility Decline
.
Population and Development Review
,
19
,
61
101
. 10.2307/2938385
Kuk, A.Y.C., & Chen, C.H. (
1992
).
A Mixture Model Combining Logistic Regression with Proportional Hazards Regression
.
Biometrika
,
79
,
531
41
. 10.1093/biomet/79.3.531
Park, C.B., & Han, J.Q. (
1990
).
A Minority Group and China’s One-Child Policy: The Case of the Koreans
.
Studies in Family Planning
,
21
,
161
70
. 10.2307/1966715
Ryder, N.B. (
1980
).
The Cohort Approach: Essays in the Measurement of Temporal Variations in Demographic Behavior
.
New York
:
ARNO Press
.
SAS Institute 1990. SAS/IML Software. Version 6. First Edition. Cary, NC.
Yamaguchi, K. (
1992
).
Accelerated Failure-Time Regression Models with a Regression Model of Surviving Fraction: An Application to the Analysis of ‘Permanent Employment’ in Japan
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
87
,
284
92
. 10.2307/2290258
Yamaguchi, K. 1995. “Mover-Stayer Models for Analyzing Event Nonoccurrence and Event Timing With Time-Dependent Covariates: Black-White Differences in the Pattern of Remarriage.” Presented at the 1995 Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, August, Washington, DC.
Yamaguchi, K., & Ferguson, L.R. (
1995
).
The Stopping and Spacing of Child Births and Their Birth-History Predictors: Rational-Choice Theory and Event-History Analysis
.
American Sociological Review
,
60
,
272
98
. 10.2307/2096387