Abstract

Botswana and Zimbabwe have been acclaimed as being on the vanguard of the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the comparability of the CPS and the DHS data for each country and finds that part of the observed decline in aggregate fertility rates in both countries can be attributed to differences in sample composition. Women of the same cohort tend to be better educated in the second survey relative to the first. This fact explains part—but not all—of the observed fertility decline; for example, it appears to account for up to half the observed decline among women age 25–34 in 1984 in Zimbabwe.

Educational Attainment, Demographic Transition, Fertility Decline, Birth History, Health Survey World
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Ainsworth, M. and A. Nyamete. 1992. “Impact of Women’s Human Capital on Fertility and Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Unpublished manuscript, Africa Technical Department, World Bank.
Arnold, F. (
1992
).
An Assessment of Data Quality in the Demographic and Health Surveys
Proceedings of the Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference
(pp.
785
–
806
).
Columbia, MD
:
IRD/Macro
.
Google Scholar
 
Becker, S., & Mahmud, S. (
1984
).
A Validation Study of Backward and Forward Pregnancy Histories in Matlab, Bangladesh
.
Voorburg, Netherlands
:
International Statistical Institute
.
Google Scholar
 
Brass, W., Coale, A., Demeny, P., Heisel, D., Lorimer, F., Romaniuk, A., & van de Walle, E. (
1968
).
The Demography of Tropical Africa
.
Princeton
:
Princeton University Press
.
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
Boohene, E., & Dow, T. (
1987
).
Contraceptive Prevalence and Family Planning Program Effort in Zimbabwe
.
International Family Planning Perspectives
,
13
(
1
),
1
–
7
. 10.2307/2948100
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
Botswana Family Health Survey II, 1988, Final Report
. (
1989
).
Gaberone
:
Central Statistics Office
.
Deaton, A. and C. Paxson. 1993. “Intertemporal Choice and Inequality.” Discussion Paper 168, Research Program in Development Studies, Princeton University.
Freedman, R., & Blanc, A. (
1991
).
Fertility Transition: An Update
Proceedings of the Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference
(pp.
5
–
24
).
Columbia, MD
:
IRDlMacro
.
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
 
Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 1989
. (
1989
).
Nairobi
:
National Council for Population and Development
.
Johansson, L. 1989. “ICDS Round I and 2: Preliminary Analysis of Demographic Measures of Change Derived from Round 1 Data. Report of a Mission to Central Statistical Office, Harare.” Statistics Sweden, International Consulting Office, ZIMSTAT 1989-17, Harare.
Manyeneng, W. G., Khulumani, P., Larson, M. K., & Way, A. A. (
1985
).
Botswana Family Health Survey I, 1984
.
Gaberone
:
Central Statistics Office
.
Google Scholar
 
Mhloyi, M. 1988. “Fertility Decline in Zimbabwe.” Unpublished manuscript, University of Zimbabwe.
Report on the Survey of Personal Income Distribution in Taiwan Area of the Republic of China
. (
1989
).
Taipei
:
Republic of China
.
Rutenberg, N., & Diamond, I. (
1993
).
Fertility in Botswana: Recent Decline and Future Prospects
.
Demography
,
30
(
2
),
143
–
159
. 10.2307/2061834
Google Scholar
Crossref
Search ADS
PubMed
 
Rutstein, S. O., & Bicego, G. T. (
1990
).
Assessment of the Quality of Data Used to Ascertain Eligibility and Age in the Demographic and Health Surveys
.
Columbia, MD
:
IRD/Macro
.
Google Scholar
 
Education Statistics
. (
1986
).
Geneva
:
United Nations
.
Children, Women and Development in Botswana: A Situation Analysis
. (
1989
).
Gaborone
:
UNICEF
.
van de Walle, E. and A. Foster. 1990. “Fertility Decline in Africa. Assessment and Prospects.” Technical Paper Number 125, Africa Technical Department, World Bank.
Zimbabwe Population Sector Report
. (
1989
).
Washington, DC
:
World Bank
.
Main Demographic Features of the Population of Zimbabwe: An Advance Report Based on the Ten Percent Sample
. (
1985
).
Harare
:
Central Statistical Office
.
Intercensal Demographic Survey, 1987, Round I. Preliminary Report
. (
1991
).
Harare
:
Central Statistical Office
.
Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, 1988
. (
1989
).
Harare
:
Central Statistical Office
.
1984 Zimbabwe Reproductive Health Survey
. (
1985
).
Harare
:
Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council
.
© Population Association of America 1994
1994
Issue Section:
Fertility trends in southern Africa: A debate