Summary

This paper is an attempt to describe and assess the contributions made by the newer quantitative models of natality to program planning and development. Considerable interest in models of natality is being reflected in reports of a large variety of ideas, suggestions, and proposed models. In view of this current activity, any assessment made now of the contributions of these models can be only tentative and should consider also prospects for the future.

The present approach to assessment will be made in three parts: a description of recent developments in natality models, a discussion of the contributions of newer models, and a consideration of prospects for the future. The discussion applies not only to models whose primary focus is on natality but also to more general models that investigate natality among other processes.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

Resumen

El presenie estudio es un intento para describir y evaluar las contribuciones hechas por los más modernos modelos de natalidad a la planeación y el desarrollo de programas. Considerable inierés por los modelos de natalidad serefleja en los inJormes de una gran variedad de ideas, sugerencias y modelos propuestoe. En vista de esta actividad actual, cualquier evaluación que se haga ahora sobre la contribución de esios modelos puede ser sólo tentativa y debe considerarse como un proyecto para elJuturo.

La presente aproximación a la evaluación será hecha en tree partes: Una descripción de los recientes desarrollos de modelos de natalidad, una discusión de los más recientes, y consideraciones sobre la proyección Jutura. La discusión se refiere no sólo a los modelos que tienen interes principal en la natalidad, sino también a los mas generales que investigan la natalidad como parte de otros procesos,

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

1
Akers, Donald S. (
1965
).
“Cohort Fertility versus Parity Progression 88 Methods of Projecting Births,”
.
Demography
,
II
,
414
28
. 10.2307/2060128
2
Sheps, M. C. (
1965
).
“Applications of Probability Models to the Study of Patterns of Human Reproduction,”
. In Sheps, M. C., & Ridley, J. C. (Eds.),
Public Health and Population Change: Current Research Issues
(pp.
307
32
).
Pittsburgh
:
University of Pittsburgh
.
3
N. B. Ryder, “The Measurement of Fertility Patterns,” in Sheps and Ridley (eds.), Public Health and Populatiun Change, pp. 287–306.
4
Henry, L. (
1961
).
“Fécondité et famille,”
.
Population
,
XVI
,
27
48
. 10.2307/1526657
5
M. C. Sheps, “Toward a Classification of Natality Models” (in preparation).
7
M. C. Sheps, J. C. Ridley, and J. W. Lingner, “Effects of Selected Factors on Natality” (in press).
8
Demographic and medical data are consistent with this finding. See C. Tietze, “The Effect of Breast Feeding on the Rate of Conception,” Proc. Conf, I.P.U., 1961, II, 129–36; M. C. Sheps, “An Analysis of Reproductive Patterns in an American Isolate,” Population Studies, XIX (1965), 65–79; R. G. Potter, M. L. New, J. B. Wyon, and J. E. Gordon, “Applications of Field Studies to Research on the Physiology of Human Reproduction,” in Sheps and Ridley (eds.), Public Health and Population Change; and E. J. Salber, M. Feinleib, and B. Macmahon, “The Duration of Post-Partum Amenorrhea,” American Journal of Epidemiology, LXXXII (1966), 347–58.
9
Ryder, “The Measurement of Fertility Patterns,” in Sheps and Ridley (eds.), Public Health and Populatiun Change, pp. 287–306.
10
Henry, L. (
1961
).
“Fécondité et famille,”
.
Population
,
XVI
,
27
48
. 10.2307/1526657
11
Potter, R. G., & Parker, M. P. (
1964
).
“Predicting the Time Required To Conceive,”
.
Population Studies
,
XVIII
,
99
116
. 10.2307/2172634
12
Ridley, J. C., & Sheps, M. C. (
1966
).
“An Analytic Simulation Model for Human Reproduction with Demographic and Biological Components,”
.
Population Studies
,
XIX
,
297
310
. 10.2307/2172823
13
Sarma, R. S. S. (
1964
).
“Large Scale Sterilization Policy in India: Its Size and Effect on Birth Rate,”
“Seminar on New Approaches to the Use of Mathematical Models in Demographic Analysis
.
Chembur, India
:
Demographic Training and Research Centre
.
14
Potter, R. G. (
1961
).
“Length of the Fertile Period,”
.
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
,
XXXIX
,
132
62
. 10.2307/3348639
15
Tietze, C. (
1962
).
“Pregnancy Rates and Birth Rates,”
.
Population Studies
,
XVI
,
31
37
. 10.2307/2172863
16
Potter, R. G. (
1963
).
“Birth Intervals: Structure and Change,”
.
Population Studies
,
XVII
,
155
66
. 10.2307/2172844
17
Potter, R. G., Sagi, P. C., & Westoff, C. F. (
1962
).
“Improvement of Contraception during the Course of Marriage,”
.
Population Studies
,
XVI
,
160
74
. 10.2307/2173123
18
18 R. G. Potter, “Some Physical Correlates of Fertility Control in the United States,” Proc. Conf. I.P.U., 1981, I, 106–16; Potter and Sakoda, “A Computer Model of Family Building Based on Expected Values”.
19
Tietze, C. (
1959
).
“Differential Fecundity and Effectiveness of Contraception,”
.
Eugenics Review
,
L
,
230
37
.
20
Henry, L. (
1961
).
“Fécondité et famille,”
.
Population
,
XVI
,
27
48
. 10.2307/1526657
21
Whitehead, A. N. (
1925
).
Science and the Modern World
.
New York
:
Macmillan
.
22
Braithwaite, R. B. (
1955
).
Scientific Explanation
(pp.
93
93
).
Cambridge
:
Cambridge University Press
.