Abstract
This paper measures the extent to whichrecent increasesin the aggregate povertyrate are attributable to the changing distribution of employment across industries. We decompose the total poverty rate change over the 1976-1983 period into components attributable to changesin employment sharesand changes in the incidence of poverty within industries. Our results show that the poverty rate increase resulted primarily fromthe decline in employment rates in general and from increases in the incidence of poverty within all industries, rather than from the shift of employment opportunities between sectors. The growth of service sector employment in particular has not contributed to the increased incidence of poverty in the United States.
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
Anderson, W. H. L. (
1964
). Trickling Down: The Relationship between Economic Growth and the Extent of Poverty among American Families
. Quarterly Journal of Economics
, 78
(4
), 511
–24
. 10.2307/1879653Bane, M. J., & Ellwood, D. T. (
1986
). Slipping Into and Out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells
. Journal of Human Resources
, 21
(1
), 1
–23
. 10.2307/145955Bawden, D. Lee (
1984
). he Social Contract Revisited
(pp. 157
–177
). Washington, D.C.
: The Urban Institute
.Beck, E.M., Horan, P., & Tolbert, C. M. (
1978
). Stratification in a Dual Economy: A Sectoral Model of Earnings Determination
. American Sociological Review
, 43
, 704
–720
. 10.2307/2094545Blank, R. M., & Blinder, A. S. (
1986
). Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty
. In S. Danziger, & D. Weinberg (Eds.), Fighting Poverty: What Works and What Doesn’t
(pp. 180
–208
). Cambridge
: Harvard University Press
.Bluestone, B., & Harrison, B. (
1982
). The Deindustrialization of America
. New York
: Basic Books, Inc
.Bradbury, K. L. 1986. “The Shrinking Middle Class.” New England Economic Review, September/October, pp. 41–55.
Bradbury, K. L.. 1990. “The Changing Fortunes of American Families in the 1980s.” New England Economic Review, July/August, pp. 25–40.
Corcoran, M., & Hill, M. S. (
1980
). Unemployment and Poverty
. Social Service Review
, 54
(3
), 407
–13
. 10.1086/643847Poverty Indicators/Trends, 1980-1987, Cuyahoga County, Ohio
. (1987
). Cleveland
: Council for Economic Opportunities
.Danziger, S. H. and P. Gottschalk. 1985. “The Poverty of Losing Ground.” Challenge, May-June, pp.32-38.
Danziger, S. H. (
1986
). Do Rising Tides Lift All Boats? The Impact of Secular and Cyclical Changes on Poverty
. American Economic Review
, 76
(2
), 405
–10
.Danziger, S. H. (
1986
). Work, Poverty, and the Working Poor: A Multifaceted Problem
. Monthly Labor Review
, 109
(9
), 17
–21
.Darity, W. A., & Myers, S. L. (
1987
). Do Transfer Payments Keep the Poor in Poverty?
. American Economic Review
, 77
(2
), 216
–22
.Devens, R. M. (
1987
). Industrial Structure and Jobless Rate of Experienced Workers
. Monthly Labor Review
, 110
(5
), 30
–32
.Ellwood, D. T., & Summers, L. H. (
1986
). S. Danziger, & D. WeinbergPoverty in America: Is Welfare the Answer or the Problem?
(pp. 78
–105
). Cambridge
: Harvard University Press
.Gordus, J. P., Jarley, P., & Ferman, L. A. (
1981
). Plant Closings and Economic Dislocation
. Kalamazoo, Mi.
: W. E. Upjohn Insitute for Employument Research
.Gottschalk, P., & Danziger, S. (
1985
). A Framework for Evaluating the Effects of Economic Growth and Transfers on Poverty
. American Economic Review
, 75
(1
), 153
–61
.Gramlich, E. M., & Laren, D. S. (
1984
). How Widespread are Income Losses in a Recession?
. In D. L. Bawden (Ed.), The Social Contract Revisited
(pp. 157
–73
). Washington, DC
: Urban Institute
.Gwartney, J., & McCaleb, T. S. (
1985
). Have Antipoverty Programs Increased Poverty?
. Cato Journal
, 5
(1
), 1
–16
.Hirsch, B. T. (
1985
). Poverty, Transfers, and Economic Growth
. Public Finance Quarterly
, 13
(1
), 81
–98
.Hodson, R. (
1983
). Workers’Earnings and Corporate Economic Structure
. New York
: Academic Press
.Hodson, R. (
1986
). Modeling the Effects of Industrial Structure on Wages and Benefits
. Work and Occupations
, 13
, 488
–510
. 10.1177/0730888486013004003Horvath, F. W. (
1987
). The Pulse of Economic Change: Displaced Workers of 1981–85
. Monthly Labor Review
, 110
(6
), 3
–9
.Lilien, D. (
1982
). Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment
. Journal of Political Economy
, 90
, 777
–93
. 10.1086/261088Mellor, E. F. (
1987
). Workers at the Minimum Wage or Less: Who They Are and the Jobs They Hold
. Monthly Labor Review
, 110
(7
), 34
–38
.Michel, R. c., F. S. Levy, M. L. Moon and I. V. Sawhill. 1984. “Are We Better Off in 1984?” Challenge, September-October, pp. 10–17.
Neelin, J. (
1987
). Sectoral Shifts and Canadian Unemployment
. Review ofEconomics and Statistics
, 64
(4
), 718
–23
. 10.2307/1935969O’Neill, J. A. (
1986
). Transfers and Poverty: Cause and/or Effect?
. Cato JournaI
, 6
(1
), 55
–76
.Podgursky, M., & Swaim, P. (
1987
). Duration of Joblessness Following Displacement
. Industrial Relations
, 26
(3
), 213
–26
.Ruggles, P. and R. Williams. 1986. “Transitions In and Out of Poverty: New Data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation.” Presented at the annual meetings of the Allied Social Science Associations, New Orleans.
Ruhm, C. J. 1987. “The Extent and Persistence of Unemployment Following Permanent Quits and Layoffs.” Unpublished manuscript, Boston University.
Sehgal, E. (
1985
). Employment Problems and Their Effect on Family Income, 1979–83
. Monthly Labor Review
, 108
(8
), 42
–43
.Singelmann, J. (
1978
). From Agriculture to Services: The Transformation of Industrial Employment
. Beverly Hills, CA
: Sage
.Smith, R. E., & Vavrichek, B. (
1987
). The Minimum Wage: Its Relation to Incomes and Poverty
. Monthly Labor Review
, 110
(6
), 24
–30
.Stone, C. F., & Sawhill, I. V. (
1984
). Economic Policy in the Reagan Years
. Washington, DC
: Urban Institute
.Thaler, R. H. (
1989
). Anomalies: Interindustry Wage Differentials
. Journal of Economic Perspectives
, 3
(2
), 181
–94
.Money Income and Poverty Status of Families and Persons in the United States: 1985
. (1986
). Washington, DC
: U.S. Government Printing Office
.Weinberg, D. H. (
1986
). A Poverty Research Agenda for the Next Decade
. In S. Danziger, & D. Weinberg (Eds.), Fighting Poverty: What Works and What Doesn’t
(pp. 348
–57
). Cambridge
: Harvard University Press
.© Population Association of America 1991
1991
