Abstract
Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
Al-Osh, M. (
1986
). Birth forecasting based on birth order probabilities, with application to U.S. data
. Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 81
, 645
–656
. 10.2307/2288992Bean, F. D. (
1983
). The Baby Boom and its explanations
. The Sociological Quarterly
, 24
, 353
–365
. 10.1111/j.1533-8525.1983.tb00706.xBogue, D. J. (
1985
). The Population of the United States: Historical Trends and Future Projections
. New York
: Free Press
.Bongaarts, J. (
1978
). A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility
. Population and Development Review
, 4
, 105
–132
. 10.2307/1972149Bouvier, L. 1980. America’s Baby Boom generation: The fateful bulge. Population Bulletin 35(1).
Brass, W. (
1974
). Perspectives in population prediction, illustrated by the statistics of England and Wales
. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Ser. A
, 137
, 532
–583
. 10.2307/2344713Brass, W. (
1975
). Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality From Limited and Defective Data
. Chapel Hill
: University of North Carolina, International Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics
.Brass, W., Coale, A. J., Heisel, D. F., Lorimer, F., Romaniuk, A., & van de Walle, E. (
1968
). The Demography of Tropical Africa
. Princeton, N.J.
: Princeton University Press
.Bumpass, L. L., Rindfuss, R. R., & Janosik, R. B. (
1978
). Age and marital status at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility
. Demography
, 15
, 75
–86
. 10.2307/2060491Chiang, C. L., & van den Berg, B. J. (
1982
). A fertility table for the analysis of human reproduction
. Mathematical Biosciences
, 62
, 237
–251
. 10.1016/0025-5564(82)90085-2Cutright, P., & Shorter, E. (
1979
). The effects of health on the completed fertility of nonwhite and white U.S. women born between 1867 and 1935
. Journal of Social History
, 13
, 191
–217
.Das Gupta, P. (
1978
). A general method of decomposing a difference between two rates in several components
. Demography
, 15
, 99
–112
. 10.2307/2060493David, P. A., Mroz, T. A., Sanderson, W. C., Wächter, K. W., & Weir, D. R. (
1988
). Cohort parity analysis: Statistical estimates of the extent of fertility control
. Demography
, 25
, 163
–188
. 10.2307/2061287David, P. A., & Sanderson, W. C. (
1987
). The emergence of a two-child norm among American birth-controllers
. Population and Development Review
, 13
, 1
–41
. 10.2307/1972119Evans, M. D. R. (
1986
). American fertility patterns: A comparison of white and nonwhite cohorts born 1903–56
. Population and Development Review
, 12
, 267
–293
. 10.2307/1973111Farley, R. (
1970
). Fertlity among urban blacks
. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
, 48
, 183
–206
. 10.2307/3349120Feeney, G. (
1983
). Population dynamics based on birth intervals and parity progression
. Population Studies
, 37
, 75
–89
. 10.2307/2174381Heuser, R. L. (
1976
). Fertility Tables for Birth Cohorts by Color: 1917–1973
. Washington, D.C.
: U.S. Government Printing Office
.Hobcraft, J., & Little, R. J. A. (
1984
). Fertility exposure analysis: A new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials
. Population Studies
, 38
, 21
–45
. 10.2307/2174353Kim, Y. J., & Strobino, D. M. (
1984
). Decomposition of the difference between two rates with hierarchical factors
. Demography
, 21
, 361
–372
. 10.2307/2061165Lee, R. D. (
1974
). The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo, the boom and the bust
. Demography
, 11
, 563
–585
. 10.2307/2060471Lee, R. D. (
1980
). Aiming at a moving target: Period fertility and changing reproductive goals
. Population Studies
, 34
, 205
–226
. 10.2307/2175182Lutz, W., & Feichtinger, G. (
1983
). Eine fruchtbarkeitstafel auf paritatsbasis
. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissehschaft
, 9
, 363
–376
.Masnick, G. S. (
1981
). The continuity of birth-expectations data with historical trends in cohort parity distributions: Implications for fertility in the 1980s
. In Hendershot, G. E., & Placek, P. J. (Eds.), Predicting Fertility
(pp. 169
–184
). Lexington, Mass.
: Lexington Books
.McFalls, J. A. (
1973
). The impact of venereal disease on the fertility of the U.S. black population, 1880–1950
. Social Biology
, 20
, 2
–19
.Pebley, A. R. (
1981
). The age at first birth and timing of the second in Costa Rica and Guatemala
. Population Studies
, 35
, 387
–397
. 10.2307/2174661Pittenger, D. B. 1973. Simple Mathematical Models of Demographic Parity Distributions. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, Dept. of Sociology.
Polit, D. F., & Falbo, T. (
1987
). Only children and personality development: A quantitative review
. Journal of Marriage and the Family
, 49
, 309
–325
. 10.2307/352302Pullum, T. W. (
1980
). Separating age, period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970
. Social Science Research
, 9
, 225
–244
. 10.1016/0049-089X(80)90013-7Pullum, T. W., Casterline, J. B., & Shah, I. H. (
1987
). Adapting fertility exposure analysis to the study of fertility change
. Population Studies
, 41
, 381
–399
. 10.1080/0032472031000142966Retherford, R. D. (
1985
). A theory of marital fertility transition
. Population Studies
, 39
, 249
–268
. 10.1080/0032472031000141476Rindfuss, R. R., Bumpass, L. L., Palmore, J. A., & Han, D. W. (
1982
). The transformation of Korean child spacing practices
. Population Studies
, 36
, 87
–104
. 10.2307/2174161Ryder, N. B. (
1969
). The emergence of a modern fertility pattern: United States, 1917–66
. In Behrman, S. J., Corsa, L., & Freedman, R. (Eds.), Fertility and Family Planning, A World View
(pp. 99
–123
). Ann Arbor
: University of Michigan
.Ryder, N. B. (
1980
). Components of temporal variations in American fertility
. In Hiorns, R. W. (Ed.), Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies, Symposia of the Society for the Study of Human Biology
(pp. 11
–54
). London
: Taylor and Francis
.Ryder, N. B. (
1982
). Progressive Fertility Analysis
. The Hague, Netherlands
: International Statistical Institute
.Ryder, N. B. (
1986
). Observations on the history of cohort fertility in the United States
. Population and Development Review
, 12
, 617
–643
. 10.2307/1973429Smith, D. P. (
1981
). A reconstruction of Easterlin cycles
. Population Studies
, 35
, 247
–264
. 10.2307/2174938Stoto, M. A. (
1982
). General Applications of Brass’s Relational Life Table System
. Cambridge, Mass.
: Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government
.Tolnay, S. E. (
1981
). Trends in total and marital fertility for black Americans, 1886–1899
. Demography
, 18
, 443
–463
. 10.2307/2060942Tolnay, S. E., & Guest, A. M. (
1982
). Childlessness in a transition population: The United States at the rum of the century
. Journal of Family History
, 7
, 200
–219
. 10.1177/036319908200700204Udry, J. R. (
1983
). Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time
. Demography
, 20
, 117
–128
. 10.2307/2061230Vaupel, J. W., & Goodwin, D. G. (
1987
). The concentration of reproduction among U.S. women, 1917–1980
. Population and Development Review
, 13
, 723
–730
. 10.2307/1973030© Population Association of America 1989
1989
