Abstract
The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for the changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround.
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
Alonso, W. 1978. The End of the Metropolitan Era. Discussion paper, Harvard University, Center for Population Studies.
Beale, C. L. (
1977
). The recent shift of United States population to nonmetropolitan areas, 1970–1975
. International Regional Science Review
, 2
, 113
–122
. 10.1177/016001767700200201Beale, C. L., & Fuguitt, G. V. (
1978
). The new pattern of nonmetropolitan population change
. In K. Taeuber, L. Bumpass, & J. Sweet (Eds.), Social Demography
(pp. 157
–177
). New York
: Academic Press
.Beale, C. L. 1985. Metropolitan and Nonrnetropolitan Growth Differentials in the United States Since 1980. Working Paper 85-6, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Center for Dernography and Ecology.
Bluestone, B., & Harrison, B. (
1982
). The Deindustrialization of America
. New York
: Basic Books
.Brown, D. L., & Beale, C. L. (
1981
). Diversity in post-1970 population trends
. In A. Hawley, & S. Mazie (Eds.), Nonmetropolitan America in Transition
(pp. 27
–71
). Chapel Hill
: University of North Carolina Press
.Duncan, O. D., Cuzzort, R. P., & Duncan, B. (
1961
). Statistical Geography: Problems in Analyzing Areal Data
. Glencoe, Ill.
: Free Press
.Fuguitt, G. V. (
1985
). The nonmetropolitan population turnaround
. Annual Review of Sociology
, 11
, 259
–280
. 10.1146/annurev.so.11.080185.001355Fuguitt, G. V., & Beale, C. L. (
1978
). Population trends of nonmetropolitan cities and villages in subregions of the United States
. Demography
, 15
, 605
–620
. 10.2307/2061210Fuguitt, G. V. 1984. Changes in Population, Employment, and Industrial Composition in Nonrnetropolitan America. Working Paper 84-20, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Center for Demography and Ecology.
Gottdiener, M. (
1985
). The Social Production of Urban Space
. Austin
: University of Texas Press
.Haren, C., & Holling, R. (
1979
). Industrial development in non metropolitan America
. In R. Lonsdale, & H. Seyler (Eds.), Nonmetropolitan Industrialization
(pp. 13
–46
). New York
: Wiley
.Keyfitz, N., & Littman, G. (
1980
). Mortality in a heterogeneous population
. Population Studies
, 33
, 333
–342
. 10.2307/2173538Lichter, D. T., & Fuguitt, G. V. (
1982
). The transition to nonmetropolitan population deconcentration
. Demography
, 19
, 211
–221
. 10.2307/2061191Long, L. H., & DeAre, D. (
1982
). Repopulating the countryside: A 1980 census trend
. Science
, 217
, 1111
–1116
. 10.1126/science.217.4565.1111Manton, K. G., Stallard, E., & Vaupel, J. W. (
1981
). Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations
. Demography
, 18
, 389
–410
. 10.2307/2061005Markusen, A. (
1985
). Profit Cycles, Oligopoly, and Regional Development
. Cambridge, Mass.
: MIT Press
.Massey, D., & Meegan, R. (
1978
). Industrial restructuring versus the cities
. Urban Studies
, 15
, 273
–288
.McCarthy, K. F., & Morrison, P. A. (
1977
). The changing demographic and economic structure of non metropolitan areas in the United States
. International Regional Science Review
, 2
, 123
–142
. 10.1177/016001767700200202Mollenkopf, J. H. (
1983
). TheContested City
. Princeton, N.J.
: Princeton University Press
.Richter, K. (
1985
). Nonmetropolitan growth in the late 1970s: The end of the turnaround?
. Demography
, 22
, 245
–264
. 10.2307/2061180Shepard, D. S., & Zeckhauser, R. J. (
1980
). Long-term effects of interventions to improve survival in mixed populations
. Journal of Chronic Diseases
, 33
, 413
–433
. 10.1016/0021-9681(80)90039-9Sheps, M. C., & Menken, J. A. (
1973
). Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth
. Chicago
: University of Chicago Press
.Singer, B., & Spilerman, S. (
1974
). Social mobility models for heterogeneous populations
. In H. L. Costner (Ed.), Sociological Methodology, 1973–74
(pp. 356
–401
). San Francisco
: Jossey-Bass
.G. Sternleib, & J. Hughes (
1975
). Post Industrial America: Metropolitan Decline and Interregional lob Shifts
. New Brunswick, N.J.
: Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy Research
.Vaupel, J. W., Manton, K. G., & Stallard, E. (
1979
). The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality
. Demography
, 16
, 439
–454
. 10.2307/2061224Vaupel, J. W., & Yashin, A. I. (
1983
). The deviant dynamics of death in heterogeneous populations
. Laxenburg, Austria
: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
.Wardwell, J. (
1980
). Toward a theory of urban-rural migration in the developed world
. In D. Brown, & J. Wardwell (Eds.), New Directions in Urban-Rural Migration
(pp. 71
–114
). New York
: Academic Press
.Wilson, F. (
1985
). Temporal and subnational variations in the reversal of migration flows between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: 1935–1980
. Social Forces
, 65
, 501
–524
. 10.2307/2578684Wilson, F. (
1987
). Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams: 1935–1980
. Demography
, 24
, 211
–227
. 10.2307/2061630© Population Association of America 1988
1988
