Abstract

Using World Fertility Survey data for 15 developing countries, we estimate an equation in which the dependent variable—whether the respondent has ever used an efficient contraceptive method—depends on the respondent’s education and location of childhood residence. All of the coefficients of this equation, including the intercept, vary over countries. Analysis based on new methodology shows that the intercept and education effects vary as a function of national family planning program efforts and that none of the parameters of the equation depend on gross national product per capita. The results demonstrate the efficacy of multilevel analysis, provide a partial test of the theory underlying the analysis, and refocus discussion of the contributions of development and policy variables to fertility reduction.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Baster, N. (
1972
).
Measuring Development
.
London
:
Frank Cass
.
Chidambaram, V. C., Cleland, J. G., & Verma, V. (
1980
).
Some Aspects of World Fertility Survey Data Quality: A Preliminary Assessment
.
The Hague-Voorburg
:
International Statistical Institute
.
Coale, A. J. (
1973
).
The demographic transition
International Population Conference. Liège
(pp.
53
72
).
Liège
:
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
.
Davis, K. (
1967
).
Population policy: will current programs succeed?
.
Science
,
158
,
730
739
. 10.1126/science.158.3802.730
Demeny, P. (
1979
).
On the end of the population explosion
.
Population and Development Review
,
5
,
141
162
. 10.2307/1972321
Easterlin, R. A. (
1978
).
The economics and sociology of fertility: A synthesis
. In Tilly, C. (Ed.),
Historical Studies of Changing Fertility
(pp.
57
133
).
Princeton
:
Princeton University Press
.
Entwisle, B. 1984. The Suitability of Early KAP Surveys for Comparative Analysis. Final Report to the Population Council Program on the Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries.
Entwisle, B., Hermalin, A. I., & Mason, W. M. (
1982
).
Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in Developing Nations: Theory and Initial Results
.
Washington, D.C.
:
National Academy Press
.
Entwisle, B., Hermalin, A. I., Kamnuansilpa, P., & Chamratrithirong, A. (
1984
).
A multilevel model of family planning availability and contraceptive use in rural Thailand
.
Demography
,
21
,
559
574
. 10.2307/2060915
Entwisle, B., Hermalin, A. I., & Mason, W. M. (
1984
).
A model for the comparative analysis of World Fertility Survey contraceptive use data
. In Ross, J. R., & McNamara, R. (Eds.),
Survey Analysis for the Guidance of Family Planning Programs
(pp.
127
146
).
Liege, Belgium
:
IUSSP, Ordina Editions
.
Entwisle, B., Mason, W. M., & Hermalin, A. I. (
1984
).
The Multilevel Dependence of Contraceptive Use on Socioeconomic Development and Family Planning Program Strength
.
Ann Arbor
:
University of Michigan Population Studies Center Research Report 84-60
.
Entwisle, B., & Mason, W. M. (
1985
).
Multilevel effects of socioeconomic development and family planning programs on children ever born
.
American Journal of Sociology
,
91
,
616
649
. 10.1086/228316
Entwisle, B., & Mason, W. M. (
1985
).
What Has Been Learned from the World Fertility Survey About the Effects of Socioeconomic Position on Reproductive Behavior?
.
Ann Arbor
:
University of Michigan Population Studies Center Research Report 85-77
.
Fox, J. (
1984
).
Linear Statistical Models and Related Methods
.
New York
:
Wiley
.
Hanushek, E., & Jackson, J. (
1977
).
Statistical Methods for Social Scientists
.
New York
:
Academic Press
.
Hermalin, A. I. (
1983
).
Fertility regulation and its costs: a critical essay
. In Bulatao, R. A., Lee with, R. D., Hollerbach, P. E., & Bongaarts, J. (Eds.),
Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries
(pp.
1
53
).
New York
:
Academic Press
.
Hermalin, A. I., & Mason, W. M. (
1980
).
A strategy for the comparative analysis of World Fertility Survey data, with illustrative examples
United Nations Fund For Population Activities, The United Nations Programme for Comparative Analysis of World Fertility Survey Data
(pp.
90
168
).
New York
:
United Nations Fund for Population Activities
.
Hirschman, C., & Rindfuss, R. (
1982
).
The sequence and timing of family formation events in Asia
.
American Sociological Review
,
47
,
660
680
. 10.2307/2095165
Lapham, R. J., & Mauldin, W. P. (
1985
).
Contraceptive prevalence: the influence of organized family planning programs
.
Studies in Family Planning
,
16
,
117
137
. 10.2307/1967015
Lesthaeghe, R., & Eelens, F. (
1985
).
Social Organization and Reproductive Regimes: Lessons From Sub-Saharan Africa and Historical Western Europe
.
Brussels
:
Vrije Universiteit
.
Mamlouk, M. (
1982
).
Knowledge and Use of Contraception in Twenty Developing Countries
.
Washington, D.C.
:
Population Reference Bureau
.
Mason, W. M., and B. Entwisle. 1984. Age-period-cohort analysis: there is a greater need for good substance than there is for more methodological developments. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia.
Mason, W. M., & Entwisle, B. (
1985
).
Cross-National Variability in Age at First Birth: Theory and Evidence
.
Ann Arbor
:
University of Michigan Population Studies Center Research Report 85-78
.
Mauldin, W. P., Berelson, B., & Sykes, Z. (
1978
).
Conditions of fertility decline in developing countries
.
Studies in Family Planning
,
9
,
90
147
.
Nortman, D. (
1982
).
Empirical patterns of contraceptive use: a review of the nature and sources of data and recent findings
. In Hermalin, A. I., & Entwisle, B. (Eds.),
The Role of Surveys in the Analysis of Family Planning Programs
(pp.
25
49
).
Liège, Belgium
:
IUSSP, Ordina Editions
.
Rutstein, S. O. (
1983
).
Infant and Child Mortality: Levels, Trends and Demographic Differentials
.
Voorburg
:
WFS Comparative Studies
.
Taylor, C. L., & Jodice, D. A. (
1983
).
World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators
. Third edition
New Haven
:
Yale University Press
.
Tsui, A. O. (
1985
).
Community effects on contraceptive use
. In Casterline, J. (Ed.),
The Collection and Analysis of Community Data
(pp.
77
99
).
Voorburg
:
International Statistical Institute
.
Factors Affecting the Use and Nonuse of Contraception: Findings From a Comparative Analysis of Selected KAP Surveys
. (
1979
).
New York
:
United Nations
.
Variations in the Incidence of Knowledge and Use of Contraception: A Comparative Analysis of World Fertility Survey Results for Twenty Developing Countries
. (
1981
).
New York
:
United Nations
.
Recent Levels and Trends of Contraceptive Use as Assessed in 1983
. (
1984
).
New York
:
United Nations
.
Vaessen, M. (
1980
).
Knowledge of Contraceptive Methods
.
The Hague-Voorburg
:
International Statistical Institute
.
Warwick, D. P. (
1982
).
Bitter Pills: Population Policies and Their Implementation in Eight Developing Countries
.
Cambridge
:
Cambridge University Press
.
Wong, G. Y., & Mason, W. M. (
1985
).
The hierarchical logistic regression model for multivariate analysis
.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
,
80
,
513
524
. 10.2307/2288464
Wong, G. Y., W. M. Mason, and B. Entwisle. 1984. A generalization of the hierarchical normal linear model for multilevel analysis. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia.
World Tables. Second edition
. (
1980
).
Baltimore
:
The Johns Hopkins University Press
.