Abstract

Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.

Migration Rate, Rank Pattern, Military Population, Percent Migration, Retirement Migration
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References

Estimates of the Population of Counties, by Age and Sex: July 1, 1975. Washington, D.C.: U. S. Government Printing Office.
-1981. Supplementary Reports, 1980 Census of Population. Age, Sex, Race and Spanish Origin of the Population by Regions, Divisions, and States: 1980. PC80-S1-1. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Estimates of the Population of Counties, by Age and Sex: July 1 1982. U. S. Census of Population and Housing, 1980. Summary Tape File 1,2, and 4.
© Population Association of America 1983
1983
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