Resumen

El estudio resume algunas conclusiones acerca de la naturaleza de las oscilaciones o ciclos de Kuznets, del crecimiento de la población y de la fuerza de trabajo de los Estados Unidos, y sus relaciones causales aparentes durante el período anterior a la Primera Guerra Mundial, con movimientos similares en la tasa de desarrollo económico. Hasta 1914, la tasa de crecimiento de la población y de lajuerza de trabajo de los Estados Unidos revela la existencia de „ciclos de Kuznets,” o sea, largas oscilaciones de 15 a 25 años de duración, aproximadamente. Estas oscilaciones se concentraron en los secioresno agrícolas y en las regiones donde seabrían nuevas explotaciones agrícolas; geográficamente, se dijundían ampliamente, a través de todo el país.

El principal componente subyacente del cambio era la miqración, tanto externa como interna. Esias oscilaciones en el crecimiento demográfico fueron originandas por oscilaciones previas en la tasa de crecimiento económica, pero, a su vez, provocaron sobre éste, importantes efectos. Así, una oscilación ascendente en la tasa de crecimiento economieo fué acompañada por un aumento de la tasa de crecimiento de los salaries por hora y por una baja de la tasa de desempleo. Al ampliarse el mercado del trabajo, la tasa de migración desde los seciores agrícolas y desde el exterior aumentó. A través del gasto de dinero, proporcionado por los nuevos empleos en los centros de actividad, los migrantes crearon a su vez nuevas demandas y oportunidades de inversion: en alimentos, vestuario, vivienda y numerosos servicios urbanos. Este crecimiento inducido del producto y de la inversión—el típico „boom” (don) de desarrollo urbano—alimentó y prolongó la expansión. Durante el período depresivó tendió a prevalecer el mismo movimiento en sentido inverso.

Las oscilaciones en el crecimiento de la poolación y de la fuerza de trabajo persistieron basta 1914, mas en parte, han mostrado características dijerentes, especialmente una mayor importancia de la tasa de natalidad en las oscilaciones de la poblacion y en el cambio de la tasa de participación en las oscilaciones de la fuerza de trabajo. En un proximo estudio se examinará el mecanismo causal que explica esias oscilaciones recientes.

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