Resumen
Este trabajo intenta proporcionar informaciónsobre la demografia de los paises drabee del Medio Este, a principios de la décade presente. Presenta y evalua datos defuentes directas e indirectas. Se estudia la distribución y compoeición. de la poblacion, migración externa e interna, y los niveles y tedencias defertilidad y mortalidad, conla profundidad que permitenlos datos. Se intenta estudiar loscambios quepresentan estos componentes del crecimiento de la poblacion, en relacum al desarrollo económico general.
En la República Arabe Unida, que posee mejores estadisticas, se estudian las diferencias de fertilidad regional y las tendencias y factores que las afectan. Se presentan medidas de niveles de mortalidad, incluyendo una tabla de vida, se estudia la migracion, tomando como base los datos del censo sobre Lugar de nacimiento. Se discuten brevemente las perspectivas de desarrollo económico en relocitm. al crecimiento de la población.
Se describen las poblaciones de Jordan, Siria, y Libano en relaciot: a 8U distribucion, crecimiento natural, migracion y recursos, utilizando informacion fragmentada. Las poblaciones de Iraq y Kuwait fueron analizadas a traves de los datos censales, junto coninformacion económica.
El estudio muestra que mientras existen similitudes demograficas considerables en la región, los problemas de población queencaran los diferentes paises, son diferentes. Así se tiene que además de los fadores culturales comunes, existe semejanza en una alta fertilidad, alta mortalidad perodeereciente, un altoporcentaje depoblacion rural, y problemas tipicos deuna etapadedesarrollo económico, Sin embargo, encontramos las siguientes diferencias: poruna parte, la República Arabe Unida, cuyo desarrollo economico se enfrenta con el problema de sobrepoblación, y Jordán donde la repentina inmigracion ha sobrepasado sus recursoslimitados. Por otra parte, Siria e Iraq no están densamente poblados, tienen abundante tierra, agua y otros recursos potenciales. La población. de Jordán goza de un alto nivel de vida, pero tiene el problema de heterogeneidad de población. Libano y hasta cierto punto Siria, han exportado poblacion a diferentes partes delmundo. Una situacióndiferente presenta Kuwait, cuya poblacitm se compone de una mitad de extranjeros, cuya existencia y riquezase debe a sus inmensos recursos petroleros mas quea tierra y agua.
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References
1
Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics (Cairo, June, 1962), p. 5.
2
Ibid. Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics (Cairo, June, 1962), p. 5.
3
Ibid. Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics (Cairo, June, 1962), p. 5.
5
El-Badry, M.A. (
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The results of this survey were analysed by H. Rizk in his Ph.D. dissertation (Princeton University, 1959).
17
H. Rizk, unpublished report entitled “Factors Affecting Fertility in the Egyptian Region of theV.A.R.”
18
Ibid. H. Rizk, unpublished report entitled “Factors Affecting Fertility in the Egyptian Region of theV.A.R.”
19
El Shanawany, M. R. (
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A. Gritly,Population and Economic Resources in U.A.R. (Cairo, 1962) (in Arabic).
30
Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics, p. 62.
31
Ibid., Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics pp. 64–66. Between 1953 and 1960, production of cotton, the main crop of the country, increased by 50 percent—from 318,000 tons to 478,000; cotton seed production increased by 45 percent; cereals increased by 13 percent; pulses by 36 percent; sugar cane by 18 percent; and onions by 80 percent.
32
Department of Statistics,National Income Estimates, 1957 and 1958 (Cairo, 1962). The national incomes from agriculture in 1950 and 1958, at 1954 prices, were 303 and 367, consecutively.
33
Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics, p. 73.
34
A. Gritly,Population and Economic Resources in U.A.R. (Cairo, 1962) (in Arabic) Gritly,op, cit.,Population and Economic Resources in U.A.R. p. 100, and National Bank of Egypt,Economic Review, XIV, No. 1, 1961, 112.
35
Department of Statistics,National Income Estimates, 1957 and 1958, p. 14. The national income from industry increased from 67.5 million pounds in 1950 to 134.3 million in 1958.
36
Ibid., Department of Statistics,National Income Estimates, 1957 and 1958 p. 13.
37
Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics, pp. 25–29.
38
Ibid., Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics pp. 84, 85.
39
Between 1952 and 1960, the value of exports of cotton yarn increased from 3.5 million pounds to 9.1 million; cotton material increased from 0.9 million pounds to 6.7 million; rice exports which were only 0.9 million pounds became 9.8 million; and the value of exported onions increased from 2.6 million pounds to 3.6 million (ibid., Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics pp. 112–13).
40
Ibid., Central Statistical Committee,Basic Statistics pp. 122, 126.
41
A. F. EI-Sherif, “General Trends of Growth of the Egyptian Economy in the Past 25 years” (National Planning Committee, Memorandum No. 121, 1959).
42
Central Statistical Committee, Basic Statistics, p. 178.
43
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957), p. 49. The estimate of Transjordan's population is derived from an earlier estimate, given by the British government in 1938, by adding the natural increase, usually stated to have been about 2.5 percent annually. The estimate of the population of the portion west of the river was prepared fromVillage Statistics of Palestine, published by the Palestine Government in 1945.
44
The mission of the International Bank for Reconstruction gives a possible undercount of about 3 percent (The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.)The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957), p. 49.
46
Department of Statistics,Statistical Year Book of Jordan No.4 (Amman, 1953).
46
Department of Statistics,Statistical Year Book of Jordan No. 11 (Amman, 1960).
47
Register figures. See UNRWA'sAnnual Report on Palestinian Refugees in the Middle East, 1961.
48
H. EI-Farhan, “Development Projects in Jordan,”Al-Abhath, VIII, Part 3 (American University at Beirut, 1955).
49
Burus, N. (
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UN Statistical Year Book, 1960, New York, pp. 116, 118, 119. Between 1952 and 1959, another 136 square kilometers were reclaimed and the irrigated land, increased by 64 square kilometers, See United Nations,L'Evolution économique au Moyen Orient 1958–59 (New York, 1960).
51
Department of Statistics,The East Jordan Valley: A Social and Economic Survey (Amman, 1961).
52
Department of Statistics,Statistical Yearbookof Jordan No. 11, pp. 13, 22. TheUN Demographic Yearbook, 1961, states that birth registration is estimated to be about 80 percent complete in 1955 (p. 171).
53
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957), p. 49.
54
Ibid. The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957), p. 49.
55
Department of Statistics,First Census of Population and Housing, 1961, Interim report No.2 [Maan District, December, 1962], Table 2, p.21.
56
Ibid., Department of Statistics,First Census of Population and Housing, 1961, Interim report No.2 [Maan District, December, 1962] Table 16, p. 70.
57
See n. 52. Department of Statistics,Statistical Yearbookof Jordan No. 11, pp. 13, 22. TheUN Demographic Yearbook, 1961, states that birth registration is estimated to be about 80 percent complete in 1955 (p. 171).
58
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957) p. 49.
59
Department of Statistics,Statistical Yearbook of Jordan No. 11, Tables 41 and 42, pp. 59, 62.
60
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957) p. 50.
61
Department of Statistics,Statistical Yearbook of Jordan No. 11, Table 13, p. 14.
62
Statistical Abstract of Palestine, 1944–45, p. 26, and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957) pp. 48–49.
63
A. Badre,The National Income of Jordan 1952–54, Institute of Economic Studies, University of Beirut). While the per capita national income was $110 in Egypt and $150 in Syria, it was $90 in Jordan.
64
United Nations,L'Evolution économique …, p. 6. The indices of wheat production stood at 27, 43, and 18 in 1958–59, 1959–60, and 1960–61, respectively, as compared to 100 in 1956-57. This drastic drop in output is explained both by the reduction in the area under wheat and the fall in the yield. Again, for the same reasons, the indices of barley output for the same years were 18, 27, and 14. See United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East 1959–61 (New York, 1962), p. 12.
66
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,op. cit.,The Economic Development of Jordan (Johns Hopkins Press, 1957) p. 50. In the 1957–58 budget bill, the total revenue was JD 28 million, of which JD 20 million were foreign grants-in-aid. See United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East 1956–57 (New York, 1958), p. 64.
66
United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1959–61, pp. 28, 36, 37.
67
Ibid., United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1959–61 pp. 20, 46.
68
El-Noss, E. (
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Directorate of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Syria, 1960, p. 277.
70
Ibid., Directorate of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Syria, 1960, pp. 11, 22.
71
El-Noss, E. (
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El-Noss, E. (
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El-Noss, E. (
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El-Noss, E. (
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El-Noss, E. (
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El-Noss, E. (
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International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Syria (Johns Hopkins Press, 1952), p. 9; El-Noss (op. cit., E. El-Noss,Population Conditions in the Arab World (Cairo: Institute of Advanced Arab Studies, 1955) p. 134) mentions that the national income in 1950- was estimated at 1,250 million Syrian liras, in which the percentage contributions of agriculture, commerce, and industry were 44, 13, and 10. respectively.
79
Directorate of Statistics,op. cit., Department of Statistics,Statistical Yearbook of Jordan No. 11, Tables 41 and 42, pp. 278–305, 323, 327.
80
United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1959–61, p. 13.
81
Ibid., United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East pp. 204, 236, 325.
82
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Syria, p. 11.
83
There was a sudden increase in the total in 1958 due to inclusion of an estimate for unregistered persons.
84
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Syria, p. 39.
85
See, for instance, Service de Statistique Generale,Bulletin statistique trimestriel (Beirut, 1954), Vol. V, No.4.
86
El-Noss, E. (
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Issawi, C., & Dabezies, C. (
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Conseil Supérieur des: Études Communs Service d'Études Économiques et de Statistique,Recueil de statistiques de la Syrie et du Liban, 1945–47, 1948.
89
El-Noss, E. (
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D. Yaukey, Fertility Differences in a Modernizing Country (Princeton, 1961).
94
El-Noss, E. (
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W. B. Fisher,The Middle East (London, 1950), p. 248.
96
Khamis,op. cit.
97
A. Badre,Lectures on Lebanese Economy (Cairo: Institute of Arab Studies).
98
El-Noss, E. (
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Service de Statistique Generale,Bulletin statistique trimestriel (fourth quarter, 1950–59).
100
United Nations, Economic Development in the Middle East, 1956–57, pp. 68–69, andEconomic Development in the Middle East, 1959–61, p. 28.
102
Yaukey,op, cit., D. Yaukey, Fertility Differences in a Modernizing Country (Princeton, 1961) p. 1.
104
Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960 (Baghdad, 1961), Table 60, p.50.
105
Ibid., Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960 (Baghdad, 1961), Table 60, p. 49.
106
United Nations, Demoqraphic Yearbook, 1961 (New York, 1962), p. iii.
107
Results of the 1958–59 agricultural census —Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960, Tables 91 and 93, pp. 89, 91.
108
Ibid. Results of the 1958–59 agricultural census —Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960, Table 96, p. 92.
111
Abdel-Rahman El-Galili in lectures delivered at the Institute of Advanced Arab Studies (Cairo, 1954).
112
See also International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Iraq (Johns Hopkins, 1952), p. 129.
113
Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960. Results of the 1958–59 census, Table 97, p. 96.
114
Ibid., Table 262, p. 352.
116
Fisher,op. cit., p. 248.
116
Ibid.
117
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Iraq, p.49.
118
Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960, Table 261, p. 351.
119
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Development of Iraq, pp. 127–28.
120
Central Bureau of Statistics,Statistical Abstract of Iraq, 1960, Table 97, p. 96.
121
United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1956–57, Table 15, p. 32. Agriculture's share was only 24 percent when oil industry was included.
122
Ibid., United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1956–57, Table 21, p. 42.
123
Ibid., United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1956–57, p. 43.
125
Figures for individual countries were obtained from the United NationsDemographic Yearbook, 1961. Most of the population of the Peninsula lives in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, which have estimated total populations of 6 million and 5 million, respectively, and whose areas are 1.6 million and 0.2 million square kilometers, respectively. The rest of the population exists in states spread along the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf and in Aden.
126
Department of Statistics, Population Census, 21 May 1961—Preliminary Results (Kuwait, 1961), p. 8. This publication is the source of all the census data presented here.
127
Quoted from El-Noss,op. cit., E. El-Noss,Population Conditions in the Arab World (Cairo: Institute of Advanced Arab Studies, 1955). p. 316. His source is a report presented to the Fourth Seminar on Social Studies conducted by the Arab League, 1954.
129
United Nations,Economic Developments in the Middle East, 1959–61, Tables 3-1, 3-4, 3-5, and III–I, pp. 50, 54, 57, and 130, respectively.
© Population Association of American 1965
1965
