Abstract

Given the lack of information on mortality in the nineteenth century United States, it seems appropriate to apply techniques which have been created for mortality estimation for developing nations with inadequate vital registration data, to the historical American experience. Two such related sets of techniques are the Brass, Sullivan, and Trussell methods and the technique here called the Surviving Children Method, which utilizes the age structure of surviving children and the number of children ever born to women in various age or duration of marriage categories. Both techniques estimate child mortality. Coale and Demeny model life tables are used to extend child mortality estimates to adult mortality. The techniques are applied to census manuscript samples from seven New York counties in 1865 and seven Pennsylvania counties in 1900, both censuses having information on children ever born. The estimates confirm a drop in mortality between 1865 and 1900 in New York and large differentials between native and foreign-born populations as well as between rural and urban populations.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Bash, W. H. (
1963
).
Changing Birth Rates in Developing America: New York, 1840–1875
.
The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
,
41
,
161
182
. 10.2307/3348757
Brass, William (
1963
).
The Construction of Life Tables from Child Survivorship Ratios
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, International Population Conference: New York, 1961. Vol. 1
(pp.
294
301
).
London
:
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
.
Brass, William (
1975
).
Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality From Limited and Defective Data
.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
:
Laboratories for Population Statistics, Carolina Population Center
.
Brass, William, & Coale, A. (
1968
).
Methods of Analysis and Estimation
. In William Brass, A. J. Coale, P. Demeny, D. F. Heisel, F. Lorimer, A. Romaniuk, & E. Van de Walle (Eds.),
The Demography of Tropical Africa
(pp.
82
141
).
Princeton
:
Princeton University Press
.
Carrier, Norman, & Hobcraft, J. (
1971
).
Demographic Estimation for Developing Societies: A Manual of Techniques for the Detection and Reduction of Errors in Demographic Data
.
London
:
London School of Economics, Population Investigation Committee
.
Cho, Lee J. (
1973
).
The Own-Children Approach to Fertility Estimation: An Elaboration
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, International Population Conference: Liège, 1973. Vol. 2
(pp.
263
279
).
Liège
:
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
.
Coale, Ansley J., & Demeny, P. (
1966
).
Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations
.
Princeton
:
Princeton University Press
.
Coale, Ansley J., & Zelnik, M. (
1963
).
New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States: A Study of Annual White Births from 1855 to 1960 and of Completeness of Enumeration in the Censuses from 1880 to 1960
.
Princeton
:
Princeton University Press
.
Condran, Gretchen, and E. Crimmins-Gardner. 1976. The United States Population in the Nineteenth Century: Mortality. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Montreal, April 29, 1976.
Easterlin, Richard A. (
1971
).
Does Human Fertility Adjust to the Environment?
.
American Economic Review
,
61
,
399
407
.
Easterlin, Richard A. (
1976
).
Population Change and Farm Settlement in the Northern United States
.
The Journal of Economic History
,
36
,
45
75
. 10.1017/S002205070009450X
Easterlin, Richard A. (
1977
).
Population Issues in American Economic History: A Survey and Critique. Forthcoming
. In Robert E. Gallman (Ed.),
Recent Developments in the Study of Business and Economic History: Essays in Honor of Herman E. Krooss
.
Greenwich, Conn.
:
Johnson Associates
.
Forster, Colin, & Tucker, G. S. L. (
1972
).
Economic Opportunity and White American Fertility Ratios, 1800–1860
.
New Haven
:
Yale University Press
.
Glover, James W. (
1921
).
United States Life Tables, 1890, 1901, 1910, and 1901–10
.
Washington, D.C.
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Grabill, W. H., & Cho, L. J. (
1965
).
Methodology for the Measurement of Current Fertility from Population Data on Young Children
.
Demography
,
2
,
50
73
. 10.2307/2060106
Higgs, R. (
1973
).
Mortality in Rural America, 1870–1920: Estimates and Conjectures
.
Explorations in Economic History
,
10
,
177
195
. 10.1016/0014-4983(73)90008-9
Jacobson, P. H. (
1957
).
An Estimate of the Expectation of Life in the United States in 1850
.
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly
,
35
,
197
201
. 10.2307/3348365
Ledermann, Sully (
1969
).
Nouvelles Tables-Types de Mortalité, Cahier No. 53 de l’Institut National d’Études Demographiques
.
Paris
:
Presses Universitaires de France
.
Leet, D. R. (
1976
).
The Determinants of Fertility Transition in Ante-Bellum Ohio
.
The Journal of Economic History
,
36
,
359
378
. 10.1017/S0022050700081729
Meech, Levi S. (
1898
).
System and Tables of Life Insurance. Rev. ed.
.
New York
:
The Spectator Company
.
Meeker, E. (
1972
).
The Improving Health of the United States, 1850–1915
.
Explorations in Economic History
,
9
,
353
373
. 10.1016/0014-4983(71)90066-0
Census of the State of New York for 1865
. (
1867
).
Albany
:
Printed by Charles Van Benthuysen and Sons
.
Okun, Bernard (
1958
).
Trends in Birth Rates in the United States since 1870
.
Baltimore
:
Johns Hopkins Press
.
Preston, S. H. (
1976
).
Estimating Child Survival Rates from Data on Women’s Reproductive Histories. Technical Report
.
Seattle
:
Department of Sociology, University of Washington
.
Sullivan, J. R. (
1972
).
Models for the Estimation of the Probability of Dying Between Birth and Exact Ages in Early Childhood
.
Population Studies
,
26
,
79
97
. 10.2307/2172801
Taeuber, Conrad, & Taeuber, I. (
1958
).
The Changing Population of the United States
.
New York
:
John Wiley and Sons
.
Thompson, Warren S., & Whelpton, P. K. (
1933
).
Population Trends in the United States
.
New York
:
McGraw-Hili Book Company
.
Trussell, T. J. (
1975
).
A Re-estimation of the Multiplying Factors for the Brass Technique for Determining Childhood Survivorship Rates
.
Population Studies
,
29
,
97
107
. 10.2307/2173427
Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality: Model Life Tables for Underdeveloped Countries. Population Studies, 2
. (
1955
).
New York
:
United Nations
.
Eighth Census of the United States: 1860. Population
. (
1864
).
Washington, D.C.
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Tenth Census of the United States. Vol. 10, Part 2, Vital Statistics: Mortality
. (
1886
).
Washington, D.C.
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. Parts 1 and 2
. (
1975
).
Washington, D.C.
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Vinovskis, Maris (
1972
).
Mortality Rates and Trends in Massachusetts Before 1860
.
The Journal of Economic History
,
32
,
184
213
. 10.1017/S002205070007546X
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1976. The Jacobson Life Table of 1850: A Critical Reexamination from a Massachusetts Perspective. Paper presented at the Social Science History Association Meetings in Philadelphia, October 29–31, 1976.
Yasuba, Yasukichi (
1962
).
Birth Rates of the White Population of the United States, 1800–1860: An Economic Analysis
.
Baltimore
:
Johns Hopkins Press
.