Abstract

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain ifno contraception were used.

The text of this article is only available as a PDF.

References

Abramson, F. (
1973
).
High Foetal Mortality and Birth Intervals
.
Population Studies
,
27
,
235
242
. 10.2307/2173394
Benjamin, Bernard, & Haycocks, H. W. (
1970
).
The Analysis of Mortality and Other Actuarial Statistics
.
Cambridge, England
:
Cambridge University Press
.
Bongaarts, J. (
1975
).
A Method for the Estimation of Fecundability
.
Demography
,
12
,
645
660
. 10.2307/2060719
Boyd, E. F., & Holmstrom, E. G. (
1972
).
Ovulation Following Therapeutic Abortion
.
American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
,
113
,
469
471
.
Abortion Surveillance Report, 1971
. (
1972
).
Atlanta, Ga.
:
Center for Disease Control
.
Henry, L. (
1961
).
Some Data on Natural Fertility
.
Eugenics Quarterly
,
8
,
81
91
.
Keyfitz, Nathan (
1968
).
Introduction to the Mathematics of Population
.
Reading, Mass.
:
AddisonWesley Publishing Company
.
Perez, A., Vela, P., Potter, R., & Masnick, G. S. (
1971
).
Timing and Sequence of Resuming Ovulation and Menstruation after Childbirth
.
Population Studies
,
25
,
491
503
. 10.2307/2173081
Potter, R. G. (
1972
).
Births Averted by Induced Abortion: An Application of Renewal Theory
.
Theoretical Pspulation Biology
,
3
,
69
86
. 10.1016/0040-5809(72)90034-2
Potter, R. G., Ford, K., & Moots, B. (
1975
).
Competition Between Spontaneous and Induced Abortion
.
Demography
,
12
,
129
141
. 10.2307/2060738
Potter, R. G., & Parker, M. P. (
1964
).
Predicting the Time Required to Conceive
.
Population Studies
,
18
,
99
116
. 10.2307/2172634
Potts, D. M., & Swyer, G. I. M. (
1970
).
Effectiveness and Risks of Birth Control Methods
.
British Medical Bulletin
,
26
,
26
32
.
Shapiro, S., Levine, S., & Abramowicz, M. (
1971
).
Factors Associated with Early and Late Fetal Loss
(pp.
45
63
).
Amsterdam
:
Excerpta Medica
.
Sheps, Mindel, & Menken, J. (
1973
).
Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth
.
Chicago
:
University of Chicago Press
.
Sklar, June, & Berkov, B. (
1973
).
The Role of Legal Abortion in Fertility Decline: The California Experience
.
Berkeley
:
International Population and Urban Research, Institute of International Studies, University of California
.
Suchindran, C. M., & Lachenbruch, P. A. (
1975
).
Estimates of Fecundability from a Truncated Distribution of Conception Times
.
Demography
,
12
,
291
302
. 10.2307/2060766
Vital Statistics of the United States, 1971
. (
1975
).
Washington, D.C.
:
U.S. Government Printing Office
.
Whelan, E. (
1972
).
I1Iegitimate and Premaritally Conceived First Births in Massachusetts, 1966–1968
.
Social Biology
,
19
,
9
28
.
Whelan, E. (
1972
).
The Temporal Relationship of Marriage, Conception, and Birth in Massachusetts
.
Demography
,
9
,
399
414
. 10.2307/2060862