Abstract
A model of cohort fertility pattern by duration of marriage is built on the parameters of conceptive risk, its decline along parity, and the length of the nonsusceptible period. The model is found to fit satis-factorily a variety of cohort fertility patterns. Birth intervals by parity are then inferred from the estimated parameters. The present model is developed for comparative analyses of fertility trends and for fertility projections which take into account ongoing changes in birth intervals and completed family-size distributions which may be observed in current sample surveys.
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
References
China (Taiwan). Population Department, Ministry of Interior. 1972. Age-Education Specific Fertility Rates of Women of a Sample for 51 Townships in the Taiwan Area in 1971. Mimeo.
Chow, Lien-Ping (
1968
). Evaluation of the Family Planning Program in Taiwan, Republic of China
. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association
, 67
, 280
–308
.Dandekar, V. M. (
1955
). Certain Modified Forms of Binomial and Poisson Distributions
. Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics
, 15
, 237
–250
.Espenshade, Thomas J. (
1971
). A New Method for Estimating the Level of Natural Fertility in Populations Practicing Birth Control
. Demography
, 8
, 525
–536
. 10.2307/2060688Farid, S. M. (
1973
). On the Pattern of Cohort Fertility
. Population Studies
, 27
, 159
–168
. 10.2307/2173460Freedman, Ronald, Coombs, Lolagene, & Chang, Ming-Chen (
1972
). Trends in Family Size Preference and Birth Control Practice: Taiwan, 1965–1970
. Ann Arbor
: University of Michigan
.Freedman, Ronald, Coombs, Lolagene, & Takeshita, John Y. (
1969
). Family Planning in Taiwan: An Experiment in Social Change
. Princeton
: Princeton University Press
.Glass, D. V., & Grebenik, E. (
1954
). The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain: A Report on the Family Census of 1946
. London
: Royal Commission on Population
.Registrar General’s Statistical Review of England and Wales for the Year 1969
. (1971
). London
: H. M. Stationery Office
.Jain, Anrudh K. (
1969
). Fecundability and Its Relation to Age in a Sample of Taiwanese Women
. Population Studies
, 23
, 69
–85
. 10.2307/2173237Ko, Ung Ring, and Eung Suk Kim. 1973. Birth Intervals with and without Family Limitation in Korea. Korean Institute for Family Planning.
Lee, Che-Fu, & Lin, Kuang-Hua (
1973
). Estimating Marital-Duration Specific Fertility Rates from Available Nuptiality and Fertility Data
. Washington, D. C.
: Institute of Social and Behavioral Research, Catholic University of America
.Murphy, Edmund M., & Nagnur, Dhruva N. (
1972
). A Gompertz Fit That Fits: Applications to Canadian Fertility Patterns
. Demography
, 9
, 35
–50
. 10.2307/2060544Potter, Robert G. (
1963
). Birth Intervals: Structure and Change
. Population Studies
, 17
, 155
–166
. 10.2307/2172844Potter, Robert G., & Sakoda, James M. (
1966
). A Computer Model of Family Building Based on Expected Values
. Demography
, 3
, 450
–461
. 10.2307/2060170Sheps, Mindel C. (
1969
). Simulation Methods and the Use of Models in Fertility Analysis
Proceedings of the International Population Conference, Vol. II, London, 1969
(pp. 53
–64
). Liege, Belgium
: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
.Potter, Robert G., & Lapierre-Adamcyk, Evelyne (
1972
). On the Measurement of Human Fertility: Selected Writings of Louis Henry
. New York
: Elsevier
.Potter, Robert G., Menken, Jane A., Ridley, Jeanne Clare, & Lingner, Joan W. (
1970
). Truncation Effect in Closed and Open Birth Interval Data
. Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 65
, 678
–693
. 10.2307/2284579Potter, Robert G., & Perrin, Edward B. (
1964
). The Distribution of Birth Intervals under a Class of Stochastic Fertility Models
. Population Studies
, 17
, 321
–331
. 10.2307/2172590Tuan, Chi-Hsien (
1958
). Reproductive Histories of Chinese Women in Rural Taiwan
. Population Studies
, 12
, 40
–50
. 10.2307/2172211Venkatacharya, K. (
1969
). An Examination of a Certain Bias Due to Truncation in the Context of Simulation Models of Human Reproduction
. Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics
, 31
, 397
–412
.© Population Association of America 1975
1975
